Even the alliance, which no pundit foresaw, between two nemesis Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim will not be able to dislodge Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak in the next general election, argued an analyst in an article published in The Diplomat.

Penang Institute's Ooi Kok Hin cited four reasons for the political gridlock, namely electoral malpractices, institutional failures, political fragmentation, and societal fault lines.

“Until and unless these are changed, reforms will be flimsy at best, and cosmetic at worst,” he said.

With regard to electoral malpractices, Ooi said if the latest redelineation proposal comes into effect before the polls, then the outcome is a forgone conclusion due to malapportionment and gerrymandering.

“Malapportionment is the disparity of constituency size caused by redelineation. It results in inequitable representation because it provides unequal vote value. For example, one voter in Putrajaya has a value equivalent to one voter in Kapar, as both constituencies have one seat each — even though Putrajaya has roughly 15,991 voters and Kapar has 144,159.

“Even within the same state, the disparity of constituency size is striking. In the state of Selangor, Damansara is four times the size of Sabak Bernam. Any of the three excessively under-represented parliamentary constituencies in Selangor are bigger than the three small constituencies combined.

“This is not a purely mathematical disparity of constituency size. It is a deliberate packing of opposition supporters into a mega-size constituency, diluting their ability to win other seats and making the neighbouring marginal seats more winnable for the ruling coalition.

"Not surprisingly, Damansara is held by the opposition and Sabak Bernam is held by the ruling party,” he added.

Ooi said gerrymandering, on the other hand, is the practice of deliberately carving boundaries based on the voting pattern of constituents so that a party may benefit.

“Malaysia’s redelineation does this in three ways: the creation of constituencies spanning multiple local authorities, the arbitrary combination of communities without common interests, and the partition of local communities and neighborhoods.

“Voters living on the same street find themselves in different electoral constituencies. The confusion is compounded by the lack of information and publicity about the changes made to constituency boundaries and, crucially, voting districts,” he added.

Fissures in the opposition

Pointing to the fissures in the opposition, Ooi argued that the collapse of Pakatan Rakyat dimmed the hope of capitalising on the prime minister's crisis.

“Amidst the open animosity between the opposition parties, pragmatist PKR is negotiating a miracle. They are appealing for a one-on-one fight, a scenario which even the most hardcore opposition supporter would find unlikely.

“Hostility is mutual between PAS and DAP/Parti Amanah Negara. (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) Bersatu, the new party set up by ousted deputy prime minister Muhyddin Yassin and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed, is beset with internal issues and looks the least of a threat to Najib’s Umno.

"A united opposition is anywhere but visible in Sabah and Sarawak, the two states which won the election for Najib, whose coalition took 47 out of 56 seats.

If PAS explicitly teams up with Umno, there is some hope that their grassroots and longtime supporters (who view Umno as a nemesis) may vote for the opposition coalition as a protest against their leadership. Tacit cooperation is more likely, however, and in three-cornered fights, the ruling party will sweep all the marginal seats,” he added.

The 'normal cycle of corruption'

On institutional failures, Ooi said this negated the possibility of any formal case against Najib with regard to 1MDB.

“The various institutions that were supposed to hold the government accountable have all faltered in one way or another. A concentration of power has enable the state leviathan to dismiss any institution that could actually hold it accountable,” he added.

The analyst also cited the Sedition Act being invoked against dissidents and actions taken against media organisations, such as the Malaysian Insider.

“Institutional failure and lack of accountability are not limited to 1MDB. Year after year, the auditor-general has revealed staggering cases of mismanaged public funds... The 'normalisation of corruption' is deeply embedded in the existing hierarchy, from the top to the bottom...

“Corrupt acts are committed and revealed, followed by public outrage. But with no institution to exercise accountability, the news eventually disappears. It has become a normal cycle,” he added.

Ooi also zeroed in on the National Security Council Act, which empowers the prime minister to declare an area of emergency if deemed necessary, without the approval of any other institution.

“Which raises the question: Are there any institutional safeguards to guarantee a peaceful transition of power even if the government fails to recapture popular support in the election?” he asked.

Race and religious fault lines

Another obstacle, according to Ooi, are the numerous and deep fault lines, where groups are divided along racial and religious lines.

“Due to this, Najib can easily turn a once-unified opposition against one another,” he said, citing the support shown to PAS' move to empower the Syariah courts.

“Najib’s olive branch to PAS is working, enticing the party away from cooperation with the opposition and thus sapping the opposition’s strength among the all-important Malay and rural areas.

“In Malaysia, where nearly everything is seen through the lens of race and religion, the push for Islamic law will effectively split society.

"Since all Malays are Muslims in this country, debates on the bill can dangerously be turned into a sectarian conflict,” he said.

Disconnect between opposition and voters

Ooi also recalled the two by-elections held last year, which he claimed could be indicators of how the general election would turn out.

The analyst said there was an obvious disconnect between the opposition and those on the ground.

“I was in the suburban areas when opposition parties held a town hall panel session, inevitably speaking in English, touching on issues such as the removal of the attorney-general. While these are big, national issues, it felt out of place.

“There is a visible gap between the politicians, the city folks, the demonstrators who so urgently and desperately want reforms, and voters outside the cities, who voted for candidates affiliated to Najib's party.

“To speak plainly, people don’t mind the status quo as long as they are not affected at the most immediate and personal level. The 1MDB scandal has been too complicated to be explained to non-English literate voters with no understanding of the complex technical terms, in a five-minute rally.

“Financial scandals grow more complicated and people just lose interest. Maybe they underestimate the cost of it all, maybe they don’t care enough or just don’t lose enough; either way they are not angry enough to want to change the status quo,” he added.

Due to these hindrances, Ooi asked if an economic downturn was required to bring about change in Malaysia, similar to what happened in Indonesia.

“In 1998, a combined factor of internal dissidents and economic instability brought the dictatorial Suharto era to an end and ushered in the reformasi period.

“If neighboring Indonesia can live embedded in a dictatorship for 40 years and then undergo rapid democratisation in so short a time, we can't and shouldn't rule anything out yet in Malaysia. But it will take a miracle,” he added.