What is the real story behind Mohd Effendi Norwawi's recent decision not to contest his vice presidency post in Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputera (PBB)?

His announcement that this will be his last term - due to end at the party's annual meet in February - has set tongues wagging in his state.

Effendi, 59, is surely a man of many reincarnations.

The government officer-turned-corporate-leader-turned-politician was made a Senator and brought back into the cabinet as a full Minister by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2004 in a surprise move. He is now a minister in the PM's Department.

This, considering that he had, a couple of years earlier, announced he was not seeking re-election to his parliamentary seat of Kuala Rajang in Sarawak and quitting as state minister on health reasons.

His health must have been sufficiently well restored for him to accept the cabinet appointment in 2004 , replacing the slot left vacant by Leo Michael Toyad, a Melanau, who was not re-appointed, in spite of having been re-elected as Mukah MP.

And then there was his forage into the media highlight earlier this year - for all the wrong reasons - of having to obtain a divorce from his first wife Faridah Hashim with a huge amount of settlement.

When his political aide released a three-paragraph press statement earlier this week to announce that Effendi had sent in a letter of resignation to party president Taib, it came as a surprise to most, if not all, of the party's top leaders with the exception of Taib, of course.

Crown prince makes his move

According to political analysts, Effendi's announcement on his resignation from the party post has raised more questions than anything else, especially when he made it clear, at the same time, that he is not quitting politics at all.

Why would someone in Effendi's position as both a senator and a federal minister want to give up a senior post in his own party (PBB)?

Unless, of course, he is planning to form another party. This, many believe, is not the real intention.

So that leaves one final option, that Effendi is being groomed to take over the party eventually, through ways which are not so obvious to many people, especially outsiders.

A state BN youth chief, who is also an Effendi admirer, told malaysiakini that Effendi could be described as Sarawak's 'crown prince' (of politics) who is marking time to sit on Taib's chair.

As another party leader, who asked not to be identified, put it: "Effendi will be there when he will be there".

His critics say the man does not have much grassroots support and in party elections may not even poll the highest votes, but nevertheless he managed to pull through with enough votes as one of the elected vice presidents.

But in the forthcoming Feb 9 to 12 ,2007 , party convention in Miri, election is the least of Effendi's worries, because the party's supreme council, the highest policy-making body, has already decided there will be no contest for the party's top posts from vice president up to the president.

So, as a lot of people are asking, why resign from the VP post while making no indication at all he intends to give up his federal minister's post, much less to quit politics at all?

A senior political aide to Taib told malaysiakini that Effendi's latest move is but part of a game plan to bring him back into state politics and take over from Taib as Chief Minister eventually, especially rumours persist about Taib's health following his operations in Singapore earlier this year and regular medical check-up.

Taib himself has been at the helm as the state chief executive, longer than any of his counterparts in the rest of the country. It is a known fact that his close family members want him to call it quits after 43 years in politics, the last quarter of a century as Chief Minister.

The two standing candidates

Political observers suggest that the eventual disposal of Taib's family-controlled public-listed Cahaya Mata Sarawak (CMS) Bhd's 32 percent equity held through Utama Banking Group (UBG) in RHB Bank will definitely have a bearing on when the political game plan involving leadership change will finally be in place.

"For several reasons, this could come sooner than expected," a political observer noted.

Four years ago, when the party decided to amend its constitution to provide for the setting up of a parliamentary caucus (a body consisting all its elected representatives and senators) with very clear objectives, it led to much speculation as to what Taib's motive was and is.

He had earlier announced three of the party's most promising leaders as potential candidates to succeed him.

The three were PBB deputy president Abang Johari Tun Openg, senior vice president Adenan Satem and Effendi.

Although Adenan, who resigned as a federal minister to return to Sarawak but has so far not been brought back into the state cabinet, appears to be no longer in contention for the post.

This leaves the door open for Johari, a Kuching Malay and son of Sarawak's first post-Independence governor, and Effendi, who has Melanau blood through his father who moved to Johor and married a Malay there.

If, indeed, the field has narrowed to just these two, what is Effendi's real motive in resigning from the VP post? Is it to force Taib to make a decision quickly on the question of his succession plan? Or is the whole thing being engineered by Taib to usher his clearly preferred choice in?

The fact that Johari and most of PBB's top leaders have so far made no comments, at least not publicly, about Effendi's recent announcement must surely indicate they are wondering what kind of game plan is the boss playing ahead of the party's long-delayed convention in Miri in February.

The game plan

A Taib-political aide told malaysiakini that it will not be surprising if Taib calls his first parliamentary caucus meeting before the party convention to gauge the feelings of the elected representatives of the party.

Under the special provisions of the party constitution, whoever the parliamentary caucus nominate for the post of Chief Minister and appointed eventually to that post automatically becomes party leader.

Although this act does seem to go against the normal convention of party leaders being elected by party delegates, under the amended provisions of the Societies Act such political decisions cannot be challenged in a court of law.

So far Taib has not made any public comment on Effendi's announcement about his resignation from the party post, as he is still away on overseas vacation.

Effendi and his new wife actress Tiara are also holidaying overseas.

Between now and Feb 9, when the party convention begins, party leaders and members will have plenty of time to ponder over the implications and/or significance of Effendi's latest move , and Taib certainly will want to know how they would react to it.