Nominations will not determine victory

The Umno division nominations for national party positions are not determinants of who will eventually win in March 2009.

The period between the completion of the nominations and the actual electing assembly is four months apart - rather than a month originally before being postponed - thanks to party president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Therefore the present form of the candidates today won’t necessarily decide their fate in March.

Using a football analogy, they are only at the qualification stage. Right now the focus is in qualifying, which is getting the minimum nomination numbers, and avoid peaking too soon.

Still there are several observations to be made from the previous weekend’s first round of division meetings, and look at where the candidates stand - in view of round two this weekend.

Presidency

After a zero show over weekend one, if Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah does not deliver at least 10 out of the 32 divisions expected to be nominating this weekend, then he would have to seriously consider withdrawing himself - or risk being ridiculed in what is likely to be his swan song.

More glaring is his inability to win nominations from Machang and Tumpat - both in Kelantan. Any challenge for the top position would require a solid support base from your home state, especially if your state is one of the bigger ones.

Unlikely that Kemaman and Kuala Trengganu will come in to provide some cheer on Oct 18, and their non-support will be sign enough for the member of the Kelantanese royalty, to make a noble exit.

Najib Abdul Razak if he clean sweeps again this weekend, will be with 60 votes in total, surpassing the 58 necessary and probably end faint possibility of any of the latter divisions giving Razaleigh a late surge.

Any latent hope that Muhyiddin might mount an unlikely challenge - because enough divisions independently nominate him for the top job - has all but ended with his own Pagoh division nominating him as deputy-president. A strong statement that the minister for international trade is settling for second prize.

Deputy presidency

The decision to be firm on wanting to go for number two in pragmatic terms is good news for the Muhyiddin camp. They won’t be drawn into further discussions and instability from being Najib’s competition. The 23 nominations over the weekend keeps him well ahead of Muhammad Muhammad Taib and Ali Rustam.

Pundits don’t see Ali Rustam lasting the pace or even securing enough nominations for the position. Hailing from smaller Melaka, the chief minister is taking a huge gamble - ignoring his vice-president incumbency - to win what has been so far the domain of leaders from Selangor, Kedah, Penang, Pahang and Johor.

Ali's main claim is - after Isa Samad’s sacking - he won the vice-presidency with the most winning votes, and often refers to himself as the senior vice-president of Umno.

Muhammad who is closely associated with outgoing president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, with his credentials as both a federal minister and former menteri besar of Selangor has a larger support base to call from and will only get stronger if he secures the 39 nominations available. A clean sweep of all the Selangor nominations will be key for him.

Muhyiddin’s camp probably prefers to face-off Ali rather than Muhammad.

Meetings to look out for this weekend would be: Perak (Padang Rengas, Tambun, Sg Siput & Lenggong), Selangor (Kuala Langat, Kapar and Gombak) and Federal Territories (Titiwangsa, Segambut, Bandar Tun Razak & Kepong)

Vice-presidency

Hishamuddin Hussein has already exceeded (25) the 20 nominations necessary, and is unlikely to be any less a strong candidate in March. The tradition of moving from youth chief to vice-president is a norm in the party, and coupled with his family name and Johor base, he is expected to take in a substantial number of nominations from the remaining divisions.

The picture becomes a little less clearer after that. At least six and up to eight candidates are expected to make up the contest in March. Based on week one, Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Shafie Apdal and Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will follow suit to get the minimum numbers this weekend.

Shafie's run to become the first Sabah vice-president is long overdue for the state, but more so it can placate a general sense of dissatisfaction the state has felt with the federal administration since the general election. Neutrals might be influenced by the need to increase cross-South China Sea relationships.

Dr Rais Yatim and Syed Hamid Albar are likely to make the cut, however the real story is in Isa Samad getting four votes already in the first weekend - just months after his party suspension ended. It is salient to remember, that he was sacked from the vice-presidency after securing the highest number of votes in the 2004 elections - for buying votes.

Divisions are given more latitude in nominating the vice-president candidates, and regional affiliations will play into the votes.

Wanita chief

Rafidah Aziz and Shahrizat Abdul Jalil have stated continuously that there will be no contest for the top two positions. However the continued nominations for Shahrizat for the top position (11) if it goes at this rate will qualify the former Lembah Pantai MP for the top post anyway.

The grassroots are clearly not abiding by Rafidah’s plan. She has lost the chief position before and if Shahrizat manages to break past the 39 nominations line, more pressure will mount for Rafidah to step down and for Shahrizat to challenge for the top post.

There are clear divides in the wing and perhaps enough cajoling by senior members after the nominations might tempt Shahrizat to go for the contest.

All eyes on the nominations outside Perak and Federal Territories this weekend.

Youth chief

When 2008 started, Khairy Jamaluddin’s rise to the chief’s post was seemingly academic, but the general election result and impending departure of his father-in-law Abdullah - has relegated him to being just another candidate.

After week one, Mukhriz Mahathir is ahead (40) and already with the minimum 39 to contest in March. Rembau MP Khairy lags behind at 20 and former Selangor menteri besar Khir Toyo stays close enough with 12.

According to Akhram Sanusi, Umno leader in Langkawi and political blogger, the result at Tuaran (Sbh) was telling.

“The youth chief over there was a Khairy loyalist, however the vote went to Mukhriz. It reflects the grassroots wave building up in Umno.”

There are murmurs south that there were irregularities in the Gelang Patah voting, and that there were more genuine support for Khir over there.

The allegations may be untrue, but it is hard to hide the drop in Khairy’s support base, and for now his camp will be endeavour to win substantial support albeit behind Mukhriz and start to chart a plan to win ground in the four months leading to the party election.

Overall, with the strong base all three leaders have, a three way fight is the likely outcome from the divisional nominations.

Weekend looming

There are going to be contests in all the major sections bar the presidency and - probably - Wanita chief.

After week one it is likelier that there will be a two-way fight for the deputy presidency, a crowded field for the vice presidency and a three way fight for youth chief.

For political parties that would be normal, but for Umno steeped in a culture of preferring political positions being passed on the basis of backroom discussion, they are going into the unknown.

The second weekend of nominations might be more adventurous - since no one from the leadership has commented on the appropriateness of any nomination. The members might start to think independently and make their own choices.