Although a UN special envoy ended his visit to Burma this week optimistic that its military rulers are keen to resume talks on democratic change, Burma watchers and exiles are more circumspect, saying the regime cannot be trusted.

To be convinced that the junta is serious about discussing the country's political future, they will be looking for signs that suggest a genuine shift away from Rangoon's oppressive policies.

Among these signs are Rangoon's permitting the ethnic political parties in this Southeast Asian country to open offices and function freely, says Teddy Buri, president of a group representing Burma's parliamentarians in exile.

''If the junta wants to be believed about its commitment for change, it has to let the ethnic parties pursue their political activity,'' he said in an interview Wednesday, a day after UN envoy Razali Ismail left Rangoon after a four-day visit.

There are over 20 ethnic political parties in Burma, all of which have been suppressed by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the military government is known.

The only opposition political party that, of late, has been given space to function is the Burman-dominated National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. But critics find little comfort in the little space the NLD has.

1,400 political prisoners

It is important that the SPDC permit Burma's heavily censored media to report that national reconciliation talks between Suu Kyi and the SPDC have begun, asserts Debbie Stothard of the Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean), a Bangkok-based human rights lobby.

''This will bring the issues into the open,'' she said. ''It will mean the SPDC wants to keep the public informed about its political shift talking to the NLD on reconciliation.''

Equally significant is for the SPDC to release all political prisoners, says an exile from Burma's Chinese minority, who spoke on condition of anonymity. ''The only prisoners the military is releasing belong to the NLD. It is not so for students, monks, members of ethnic communities, and other political groups,'' he said.

Since December 2000, over 300 political prisoners have been released from Burmese jails, but "an estimated 1,400 remain behind bars" notes the London-based Amnesty International in a report released in July.

Among the hundreds still languishing in Burmese jails are two leaders of the Democracy Party, U Thu Wai and U Twe Myint, states the Network for Democracy and Development, a Thailand-based group representing Burmese exiles.

Suu Kyi herself also drew attention to this injustice in a video statement released here Wednesday. ''The release of political prisoners is important because it means a return to political normalcy,'' she said in the video footage that is part of the 'Free political prisoners in Burma campaign'.

''Unless political organisations are free to go about their work unhindered and unintimidated by the authorities, we can never say that we have started the process towards changed democracy,'' she explained, adding that ''discussions'' thus far with junta leaders do not constitute a ''dialogue''.

40-year military rule

On Tuesday, Razali did not provide any clues as to when prisoners of conscience would be released, but said the concerns of Burma watchers and exiles will be part of the substantive political discussions due to take place.

Former Malaysian diplomat Razali, who was on his eighth visit to Burma, spoke in generalities, telling reporters at the end of his stay that reconciliation talks between the SPDC and the NLD should begin ''very soon''.

''Mr Razali believes that the national reconciliation process will continue to evolve positively along a number of fronts, and in a way that corresponds with the 'spirit' of the home-grown process that has developed thus far,'' Fred Eckhard, a UN spokesperson, told reporters on Tuesday.

Razali has been visiting Burma, renamed Myanmar years ago by the junta, since October 2000 in a bid to guide the UN-brokered talks between the SPDC and Suu Kyi's NLD.

Many credit Razali's quiet and non-confrontational approach with the junta as being a key factor in securing freedom for Suu Kyi in May after 19 months under house arrest.

But since her release, the SPDC has been far from keen to talk to her, feeding the belief that it is not serious about political change.

Burma has been under military rule for 40 years, a period during which its rulers have acquired notoriety for human rights violations, ranging from killing hundreds of pro-democracy activists, imprisoning political opponents, forcing members of ethnic communities into slave labour and suppressing free expression.

Suu Kyi's compromise

However, as the diplomatic events in Rangoon this week revealed, the junta is coming under pressure to demonstrate a willingness to enter into real political dialogue.

Significant in this regard was Monday's meeting between Suu Kyi and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, during which the pro-democracy leader also revealed her willingness to compromise.

Suu Kyi told Japan's top diplomat that she will not oppose economic aid to Burma, a clear shift from her previous objections to all foreign assistance to the country.

This move paints the junta in poor light, says Altsean's Stothard, because Suu Kyi's ''willingness to make compromises in the interest of reconciliation'' would put the ball in Rangoon's court.

Suu Kyi's stance is expected to see the resumption of Japanese aid to Burma. Japan was Burma's biggest aid giver till the junta cracked down on student protests in 1988.

Kawaguchi also called on Rangoon to come clean on the political talks for democracy and reconciliation efforts between Burma's ethnic communities.

''Japan has no alternative but put pressure on the SPDC to demonstrate serious signs of progress,'' said Buri. ''The foreign minister's meeting was also important, for it raised the profile of Suu Kyi as a leader the junta cannot ignore.''

Reactive regime

Suu Kyi has also asked for a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad when he visits Burma in mid-August.

While Burma watchers welcome growing diplomatic and economic pressure, they say there is a long way to go before the junta can be adjudged to be sincere about political change. Stothard says that the regime is ''always reactive''.

''The positive developments in Burma have been due to international pressure and sanctions,'' she said. ''The junta has not offered anything genuine to the reconciliation process, not shown a willingness to be flexible, or compromise.''

The military rulers, she added, ''can only be trusted to behave consistently in one way finding excuses to slow down talks and delay efforts towards democracy''. IPS