Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has received an apt gift to mark the two years since his party's impressive triumph at the national elections news of a crisis in the ranks of the parliamentary opposition.

This has been triggered by a battle for leadership of the Democrat Party, the country's oldest party with over 50 years in politics. Since this internal political squabble burst into the scene a week into the new year, it has exposed the underbelly of the only party capable of defeating Thaksin.

''All of a sudden (the Democrat Party) finds itself groping in the dark in the age of political reform,'' Thepchai Yong, a columnist in the English-language daily The Nation wrote Tuesday.

Democrats have been reduced to a party ''without an agenda in the face of the gravest challenge to (their) very existence as a meaningful political force,'' Thepchai argued. ''Worst still, it doesn't even know who its next leader will be or where he will lead the party.''

New leader

The Democrats, who have 132 seats in Thailand's 500-member parliament, are expected to choose a new leader by April, replacing the incumbent Chuan Leekpai, who was prime minister on two occasions.

Those in contention are Banyat Bantadtan, a party veteran who has the backing of ranking members of the Democrats' old guard, and Abhisit Vejjajiva, a young member known for his clean image and modern outlook.

If by then the Democrats have not closed ranks behind the best leader, their dissension may help Thaksin achieve another milestone in his political career becoming Thailand's first elected prime minister to serve his full four-year term.

On Jan. 6, 2001, Thaksin led his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai) party to the largest parliamentary majority in the country's history. Since then, he has attracted parties to join his party's fold, ensuring that in all he has 364 seats backing him in the legislature.

Over the last 50 years, Thai politics have been in a state of flux. During that period, it had 20 prime ministers in addition to 16 new constitutions and experienced 17 military coups.

Fragile governments

Premiers who preceded Thaksin led fragile governments, made up of many coalition partners and had slim majorities in parliament. In-fighting and factionalism, aided by pay- offs, led to elected heads of governments being forced out of power.

It is little wonder why the prevailing political conditions have not been lost on the ruling party. ''We feel that Khun Thaksin's position to complete his four-year term will be strengthened because of the problems in the opposition,'' says Pimuk Simaroj, a Bangkok parliamentarian and deputy spokesman for the Thai Rak Thai.

''There isn't any other party than the Democrat Party to challenge Khun Thaksin,'' he adds. ''They need a new policy.''

Independent observers and, at times, critics of the prime minister's forceful political style, agree with this view. ''The Democrat Party is fizzling out and is not a threat to Thai Rak Thai,'' says David Streckfuss, an US academic working on Thai social and political issues.

According to Sunai Phasuk of Forum-Asia, a Bangkok-based regional human rights lobby, there is growing consensus among Thai political analysts that the country's main opposition party ''is in disarray and cannot mount a challenge'' against the TRT.

Bureaucratic reforms

The milestone that lies ahead for Thaksin his likely completion of a full term will add to another one no Thai prime minister has achieved: reforming the country's 110-year-old bureaucracy. Thaksin's sweeping bureaucratic reforms were approved in September last year.

These measures, which increased the number of ministries from 14 to 20, was expected to cost the Thai taxpayer an additional 1.5 billion baht ( US$345 million).

This ambitious effort is in line with the equally sweeping programmes that Thaksin, a business tycoon, has pursued since his victory.

These have included winning the support of the poor through populist initiatives like a village fund scheme where a one million baht (US$23,250) loan was assured each of Thailand's 78,000 villages for income-generating activities and a deferred farm debt repayment scheme for rural farmers saddled with huge loans.

Over the weekend, the premier announced plans to build one million affordable homes across the country as part of the government's ''new affordable housing programme''.

Thaksin also hopes to cement his third year in office through a buoyant economy.

Self-destruct

In 2003, he said during his regular Saturday radio talk show, the Thai economy could strike a six or seven percent growth rate, up from the five percent growth rate achieved last year, one of the highest growth rates in the region. The figure is higher than some estimates by Thai government agencies.

However, the favourable political weather around Thaksin does not impress Kraisak Choonhavan, chairman of the Thai senate's foreign affairs committee. ''This government, like others before, will self-destruct,'' he says.

''That has always been the case and there is no reason for the prime minister to feel overly optimistic,'' he adds. ''This is a government run on business lines, and you need to maintain people and keep them content.''

Streckfuss, the US academic, agrees: ''Thaksin will have to worry about his own party, because money can only go so far'' to maintain party loyalty and the ruling numbers in parliament.

The voices of dissent beyond parliament ranging from activists and academics cannot be ignored either, adds Streckfuss, referring to growing criticism of Thaksin's tough and, at times, forceful methods to implement policies and silence his critics.

''He is taking NGOs, activists, academics for granted, and not gaining support from them,'' Streckfuss explains. ''He doesn't listen to anyone anymore and that can be his problem.'' IPS