By returning to Burma this week, a UN human rights envoy has set the stage for a political drama that could end up putting the strongest external pressure so far on Rangoon's military government.

This prospect has animated both Burmese political activists living in exile in neighbouring Thailand and regional human rights monitors.

Judgement day will be Nov 12, when UN envoy Paulo Sergio Pinheiro is due to brief the UN General Assembly about the political climate in Burma. He has met Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.

''The report he will deliver to the UN General Assembly will be important, because if very critical, it will put the military government under tremendous pressure,'' said Bo Kyi of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a group of activists who served time in Burmese prisons for their political views.

''Pinheiro's report and the response it receives at UN sessions will help clarify world opinion,'' added Sunai Phasuk, an analyst at Forum-Asia, a regional human rights lobby based in Bangkok. ''If the Burmese government is denounced, it will hamper its efforts to be given a second chance to

reform.''

Human rights abuses

The visit will make it difficult for the Burmese government to deflect charges against its human rights abuses, Soe Aung of the Network for Democracy and Development, a group of Burmese exiles based in Thailand, said in an interview. ''Pinheiro is in a position this time to force Rangoon to be held accountable.''

There are ample hints to suggest that Pinheiro, a Brazilian academic, will be far from charitable toward the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the Burma's junta calls itself.

When he last visited Burma in March, Pinheiro ended his trip in anger after he discovered that a room deemed safe for his interviews with political prisoners had actually been bugged.

On May 30, thugs linked to the SPDC mounted an attack on Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party in a town north of Rangoon.

This attack, which triggered global outrage, further eroded the SPDC's credibility and so did its move to place Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi and NLD leaders in military custody for their ''protection''.

Pinheiro's week-long visit, his sixth trip to Burma, will be the first since these three incidents.

There are hints that he will test the SPDC's commitments to political reform and human rights based on where they stand on the freedom for Suu Kyi, who has since been moved to house arrest, and the NLD members still in prison.

Harsh critic

Human rights activists are also confident that Pinheiro will again turn the heat on Rangoon to release the estimated 1,300 political prisoners, including close to 100 women, being held in the 39 prisons across Burma.

A year ago, Pinheiro used some of the strongest language to date to criticise Burma during his report to the UN General Assembly. The political crimes Rangoon had committed up to that point included the rape by Burmese soldiers of some 625 women and girls in the country's eastern Shan state.

The human rights violations in this South-east Asian nation include the forced conscription of child soldiers, the sending of members of ethnic communities into forced labour camps, the crushing of political opponents and its holding of political prisoners.

Burma watchers consider that criticism in 2002 - which was denounced by the SPDC - a significant shift when compared with the language used at discussions on Burma at the UN General Assembly over the past 10 years.

Some feel that a more severe critique by Pinheiro at the UN sessions this month may pave the way for a situation the junta has been trying to avoid - Burma's case being brought before the Security Council.

''From what we understand, Pinheiro is ready to place the Burma issue with the Security Council,'' Bo Kyi told IPS . ''That will force the international community to take serious note of Burma. It will not look good for the SPDC.''

Currently, Burma is taking a beating on the international stage due to harsh economic sanctions imposed since August by the US government. In October, during a review of the political climate in Burma, Washington threatened Rangoon with more sanctions.

Sanctions review

The European Union (EU) has imposed sanctions on Burma since 1996. But these measures - ranging from an arms embargo and visa bans on SPDC officials to freezing of assets - are to be reviewed in May 2004.

Human rights activists believe that a Pinheiro ( left ) report more damning of Burma would strengthen Washington and the EU's positions toward Rangoon. But that would not be the case for a group of Asian nations who critics say are marching to the rescue of one of South-east Asia's brutal regimes.

''A critical report at the U.N. this month will be deeply embarrassing for these Asian nations, since it will come before the Burma Forum for like-minded countries,'' said Sunai, the human rights analyst.

Bangkok plans to host a meeting of this forum in late November. The countries in the group are Thailand, its eight South-east Asian neighbours, China, India and Burma.

''These Asian countries, led by Thailand, are trying to rehabilitate the SPDC,'' added Sunai. ''The Thai government, in fact, is trying to get the EU to lift its sanctions on Burma despite the SPDC's record of abuses. That is how sympathetic they are.'' - IPS