2004 is likely to be a definitive year for many Indonesians. For the first time since former President Sukarno declared independence from the Netherlands in 1945, some 142 million citizens of the republic will have the opportunity to cast their votes in direct presidential elections following legislative polls in April.

This is a milestone for a country which has seen vacillating changes in the office of the president since the implementation of democratic reforms six years ago.

The nation's history in relation to its leadership has been a chequered one. The first president Sukarno held sway for 20 years until he was deposed through a military coup led by Gen Suharto, who went on to rule as dictator for the next three decades.

Following general elections which preceded the collapse of the Suharto regime in 1998, the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) elected visually impaired, barefoot cleric Abdurrahman Wahid as the republic's fourth president, only to impeach him 18 months later over a corruption scandal.

He was succeeded by President Megawati Sukarnoputri - Sukarno's daughter - who, by most accounts, is a motherly figure but an undistinguished leader.

Now, as if by habit, the candidacy for Indonesia's next polls process, to be completed by October, will not be short of colourful characters.

Stiff competition

Delivering a public lecture entitled 'Indonesia Elections: A New President in 2004?' last week, Indonesia scholar and political observer Prof Harold Crouch named at least five prospective candidates cherishing hopes of snatching the presidency from Megawati.

Golkar, the rival party to Megawati's Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP), has come up with at least two candidates who might pose a serious threat to Megawati.

Obstacles that lay in Golkar chairperson Akbar Tandjung's path to contest in the July polls have just been cleared by the Indonesian Supreme Court. Last Thursday, on appeal, it overturned his September 2002 conviction for embezzling US$4.5 million in state funds.

Another strong Golkar contender is former armed forces chief Gen Wiranto - a controversial figure outside Indonesia for his role as commander-in-chief presiding over the violence which wracked East Timor immediately after its 1999 independence vote.

Also expected are candidates banking on their Islamic credentials. There is Megawati's vocal and controversial vice-president Hamzah Haz, representing the largest Islamic party in the country, the Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP); and a candidate from former president Wahid's party, the Nahdlatul Ulama, which boasts a membership of some 40 million.

By Crouch's reckoning, two contenders from smaller parties may yet cause ripples in the presidential race.

One of them is Amien Rais, current speaker of the MPR who seems to appeal to a broad section of voters as a modernist with a respectable Islamic background.

The other dark horse is senior minister in charge of political and security affairs, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. A highly regarded figure with "good international prestige", retired military man Bambang cannot be discounted even if he decides eventually to pull out and become running mate to another candidate.

Political manoeuvres

Yet, Crouch also said any changes are unlikely to make much impact on the lives of ordinary Indonesians for the simple reason that corruption remains very much a fact of political life.

Drawing on the example of outcomes of the 1999 elections, Crouch said money politics was probably the main reason why Megawati lost the president's post to Wahid despite heading the party with the highest number of seats in the MPR.

As much as it worked against her then, Crouch was of the opinion that the established practice of political wheeling and dealing will probably move things in Megawati's favour this time.

"Support for Megawati's party, the PDIP, has declined drastically since the last elections because the performance of her government has not been impressive. The PDIP has a reputation for corruption and incompetence. If she wins, it will be more because of the manoeuvres of her party vis-a-vis Golkar," he said.

More revealing was Crouch's assertion that the Indonesian polls will be another "policy-less" exercise.

All parties, predictably, will announce their wars on graft, unemployment and other ills affecting the populace but actual policy details will barely enter the candidates' campaigns.

Part of the reason is because of fixed voting patterns among the electorate. The majority of traditional Muslims will vote for the Islamist candidates but they comprise, at most, 15 percent of all votes.

Most other voters, Crouch said, will continue to support nationalist parties like PDIP and Golkar, based on information gathered from public opinion polls.

Crouch said a reasonably reliable canvass conducted by the Lembaga Survey Indonesia showed that support for Megawati's PDIP has fallen drastically since 1999 largely to the benefit of Golkar - an ironic circumstance considering that Golkar was Suharto's party.

"More than 50 percent of the people now say that things were better during the Suharto period when there were no riots or shortages. They don't see that the things that are happening are legacies of the Suharto rule, so some are now (nostalgic) for the old times," he said.

As both parties are well known for their established channels for distribution of patronage, the real fight will remain one "between patronage and network", Crouch surmised.

Idealism and cynicism

Perhaps another question still unanswered is: Whither the idealism and democratic fervour that enveloped Indonesia immediately after the downfall of Suharto?

Crouch said idealism still exists, as evident from the emergence of reform-minded leaders such as Nurcholish Madjid.

Nurcholish, a respectable intellectual, considered running for the Golkar top post last year but dropped out on grounds that he would have a slim chance against then-convicted chairperson Akbar ( photo ), who already has an established patronage network.

"There is a lot of idealism still in Indonesia but also cynicism towards the political parties. Idealism is just not strong enough to compete with (everything else)," Crouch said.

Looking on the bright side, Crouch said fears that radical Islam is on the rise in Indonesia are largely unfounded as the general populace remains strongly in support of the nation's secular tradition.

"There was much more religious violence in Indonesia in the 1950s and 1960s. Terrorism is a problem but it only affects a very small minority," he said.

There have been incidents of violence in spots such as the Moluccas islands, with intermittent fighting between Muslim and Christian groups. The extremist Muslim group Laskar Jihad has joined in the fighting.

However, Crouch said problems with groups such as Laskar Jihad was more reflective of the military taking sides in the rivalry between then-president Wahid and Megawati.

"In fact, Laskar Jihad activities declined after Megawati took over from Wahid," he said.

Strife in other areas such as Aceh, West Papua, Kalimantan and Poso may signal impending doom to Western observers but for the most part, Crouch said the majority of Indonesians remain unaffected by the violence.

"These clashes are often between different ethnic groups but by chance if different religions are involved, then groups such as the Laskar Jihad come into the picture," he added.

"Ethnic rivalry can be so sharp that it leaves some places in flames. But for the most parts, people simply survive together."

YAP MUN CHING is a member of the malaysiakini team.