The extent of Barisan National's (BN) success in the Malay heartland came as a surprise to all, with BN sweeping of 28 out of 32 state seats in Terengganu and nearly half of the state seats in Kelantan, not to mention winning most of the seats in Kedah and Perlis.

PAS was blind-sided, having set their eyes on expanding its control over Kedah and Perlis, but instead seeing voters rejecting their rule in the East Coast.

While PAS retains leadership of the Kelantan government by the narrowest of margins, politics being what it is, power could change hands any time, should a couple of state assemblypersons decide to switch camp.

However, BN's victory and the defeat of PAS should be put in perspective. The percentage of the popular vote for BN in the Malay heartland states of Perlis, Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan was 56.1%. Hence PAS and Keadilan managed to retain close to 45% of the vote.

The highest swing came in Terengganu where BN picked up an additional 14.9% of the vote, followed by Kelantan (11.5%), Perlis (7.3%) and Kedah (4.1%). ( See chart )

The swing resulted in PAS losing seats where its majority had been below 20% in 1999. However, BN won 12 parliamentary seats with under 15% majority. PAS will aim to retake these seats in the next round.

Many would suggest that the vote signals a repudiation of PAS's Islamic state policy. PAS contends that the election was less than free or fair, and has alleged that the extremely high voter turnout is due to the presence of 'phantom' voters. Over the next few days, PAS may bring evidence to support this allegation.

However, just based on the voting trend, there was a swing by the minority to BN this time round.

Much research will be required to come up with a determining factor for the swing in this middle ground. Nevertheless, the assumption is that a voter would not decide to accept an Islamic state in one election and reject it the next, when the concept barely had a chance to be implemented.

Just as the 1999 result was due to temporal issues such as the jailing of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim and an 'unwanted' menteri besar in Terengganu, the results this time seem to be a 'yes' for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership, rather than a rejection of ideological concepts such as an Islamic state.

Hence, BN would do best to use the opportunity to address long-standing problems of poverty in Kelantan and Terengganu, or PAS will certainly capitalise on this politically.

Back to 1995

elsewhere

The 2004 results indicate that the political landscape has reverted to that in 1995. In terms of popular vote, BN once again won roughly 64% of the vote. PAS is back to holding seven seats, and DAP now has 12 against nine in 1995.

However, with PBS joining BN, Sabah is left with just one opposition MP, compared to eight PBS MPs in 1995.

Semangat 46 has been replaced by Keadilan, whose president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail scraped through to win in Permatang Pauh.

The DAP, having twice flirted with working closely with Malay parties in 1990 with Semangat 46 and in 1999 with PAS and Keadilan - returned to defend its stomping grounds of 1995 and 2004. Voters in Kuala Lumpur, Ipoh and Penang endorsed it as a viable opposition voice against the Islamisation policies of both Umno and PAS.

However, as party chief Lim Kit Siang has said, the party still has a "long and arduous journey" ahead.

The party's leaders are aging fast. The victories of Batu Gajah incumbent Fong Po Kuan and DAP Socialist Youth secretary-general Anthony Loke in the state seat of Lobak in Negri Sembilan, are positive signs.

Nevertheless, DAP seems unable to go beyond its urban Chinese base. DAP has managed to extend its shelf-life, but needs more than short-term cures to regenerate.

Keadilan complaints

Keadilan has come off worst in the general election. Without a doubt, it will direct its dissatisfaction at the incompetence of the Election Commission (EC).

Not only did the EC fail to produce an electoral roll that was free of 'phantom' voters and ensure that the correct lists were made available, it also made an 11 th hour decision to allow BN to maintain voter verification booths or pondok panas outside polling centres - opposition parties found out too late about the change of mind to set up their own booths.

These complains will compound the long list of standing complains to the EC, such as the method of casting postal ballots and the use of government media and machinery by the incumbents.

Nevertheless, the significant margins of victory suggest that, Keadilan has its work cut out for it. While many feel the party has great potential as a multi-ethnic alternative to the BN, the next five years will be an uphill battle on all fronts.

Umno will offer carrots to draw back former members into the fold, and punish those who don't. On top of its shopping list will be Anwar, whose decision will make or break Keadilan.

While Anwar has sworn that he will not return to Umno, no politician burns all bridges. Keadilan members will be waiting for a sign from him.

Abdullah's ( photo ) strong mandate may in fact work in Anwar's favour. With Keadilan no longer a political threat, he really has no reason to detain Anwar. In fact, continued detention of Anwar will work against his image as a reformer.

Then again, a free Anwar leading Keadilan would alter the political landscape. But that would be a new game, to be played in 2009.