While a recent decision by Southeast Asian governments makes it appear that Burma's military regime may have won a diplomatic victory, two approaching deadlines should give Rangoon's junta a reason for discomfort.

The politically charged of the two will be the forthcoming Asia-Europe (Asem) summit to be held in October in Hanoi, where the junta will finally learn where it stands in the eyes of its regional neighbours and the European Union (EU).

The second is a November deadline placed recently by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for Rangoon to halt the practice of forced labour or face international pressure that could be politically damaging.

Signs that Burma still remains a pariah in the eyes of the EU was evident before and after a recently concluded foreign ministers meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in Jakarta.

EU's displeasure

To begin with, the EU announced in mid-June that it was withdrawing from planned talks with Southeast Asian finance and economic ministers due to the contentious subject of Burma's

participation at the Asem summit.

Then, following last week's Asean ministerial meeting, the EU expressed its displeasure at Asean's reluctance to rebuke the Burmese regime for its continuing political oppression, including keeping under house arrest Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

While in the Indonesian capital, Javier Solana, the EU high representative for common foreign and security policy, reiterated to the media that the EU was upset at the tepid Asean statement.

Solana told reporters that he would have ''preferred to have had something on Suu Kyi'' in the Asean foreign minister's statement.

The EU's disappointment with Asean was echoed by US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who was also in Jakarta to participate in a meeting between Asean foreign ministers and their dialogue partners.

'The October-November period will be punch time for the (Burmese) regime, since they will learn of their fate in two places,'' Debbie Stothard, of the regional human rights lobby Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean), told IPS .

The Asean statement, however, does not translate to an absolute victory for the junta, she added. ''The regime has not got away totally.''

Cries of protest

Asean members include Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The soft approach towards the junta displayed at the just-ended meeting was in marked contrast to the sharp rebuke directed at Rangoon by its regional neighbours last year.

Then, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's former prime minister, was among the harshest critics, even threatening Burma that it could be expelled from the 10-member regional grouping if it did no release Suu Kyi and her party members, who were attacked by gangs linked to the junta on May 30.

This about turn by Asean, rather than building up momentum to pressure Rangoon on the foundations of last year's criticism, has also provoked cries of protest from the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), the Burmese government in exile.

"As an association, Asean is responsible for a member like Burma committing state-sponsored crimes against its people and perpetrating the worst kind of human rights violations,'' the NCGUB declared in a statement.

According to Burmese political exiles in Thailand, the Asem meeting in Vietnam will affirm if this about-turn by Asean is part of the regional grouping's commitment to side with Burma at any cost.

''It will show if Asean is prepared to sacrifice its good relations with the EU to protect the Burmese military government,'' Soe Aung, external affairs director of the Network for Democracy and Development, a group made up of Burmese exiles agitating for political reform, told IPS .

For Asean to choose Burma over the EU will not be easy, given the economic and political ties that have bound South-east governments with their European counterparts since 1980, when the EU signed a co-operation agreement with Asean to be a dialogue partner.

Economic progress

The trade relations between the two regions in 2002 reflect how much Asean turns to the EU for its economic progress - the EU was the Southeast Asian group's second largest export market and it followed the United States and Japan as Asean's third largest trading partner.

According to a report from the EU's external relations department, EUexports to Asean were nearly 30 billion Euros (US$36.8 billion) while EU imports from Asean were estimated at 62 billion Euros (US$76.1 billion).

''I don't think Asean will undermine Burma so easily, even if it affects the economic ties with the EU,'' Prapat Thepchatree, director of the centre for international policy studies at Bangkok's Thammasat University, told IPS.

He believes so for two reasons - that Asean is moving closer towards greater unity and that ''Burma has been known for its abuse for a long time and the region has got used to it.''

Rangoon, however, may not enjoy such a reprieve when up against the ILO's deadline, given Burma's list of failed commitments to end the abusive practice of forced labour.

''The ILO's deadline is quite serious, because it is tired of Rangoon's waiting games,'' an U.S. labour rights activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told IPS.

In June, Burma's forced labour record came under scrutiny following a report to the ILO that declared the junta still used this abusive practice to pursue its economic ends.

Further, the military regime had also failed to implement a programme aimed at enabling victims of such human rights abuse to be aware of its illegality and register their complaints.

In 2000, the UN agency took the unprecedented step of denouncing the Burmese government for having more than 800,000 forced labourers and imposed pressure on Rangoon, which included being denied attending meetings of the 174-nation body.

Burma, according to labour rights activists, could face a repeat of such censure if it fails to meet the November deadline.

''These pressures and other checks from international groups is putting the regime under a lot of pressure,'' says human rights activist Stothard. ''The regime is on the run, and they know it.''