For months the Republicans had hinted about it. For equally a longer time, the Democrats had speculated about it.

And now it has finally happened. The much-vaunted October surprise of 'heralding' in al-Qaeda chief, Osama bin Laden has materialised.

But whether one realises it or not, judging from how he has occupied US consciousness since the Sept 11 2001 attacks, the fugitive terrorist, has cast himself into becoming a self-styled power broker. This has been plain evident in the current US presidential campaign, considering how many times he has been mentioned in the elections.

Not only does he inspire fear by his constant threat of attacks but the fact that a foreigner - much less a terrorist - can emerge to influence a presidential election is indeed something worth taking note of.

In a tape he released two days before the American presidential election in which he exuded regal bearings; the comparison he struck with President George W Bush was along the same messianic spectrum - except that one was more diabolical than the other.

In that videotaped appearance which was broadcast in the US on Saturday, Osama took it upon himself to lecture Americans on 'how to avoid another Manhattan,' in clear reference to the attacks three years ago that convulsed the US.

He also spelled out the universal theme of freedom, commenting on how much the theme resonates with peoples' all over the world, be they American, Muslim or otherwise.

To the many observers watching and hearing the tape, the al-Qaeda boss' appearance was a shrewd attempt to influence an election now seen as the closest in US history - with terrorism as its central plank.

It is also a masterly example of how much US politics can be influenced by foreign factors, in this case by a single individual.

Judging by the way the reactions to the videotaped broadcast have been unfolding; the 'casting' vote to a bitterly fought US presidential election seems to be held mysteriously by a single man holed up somewhere in the mountains of Afghanistan

The power broker effect

Osama's mannerisms and the tone in which the tape was broadcast, left no doubt that what he was intending.

Referring to the Iraq crisis and the replacement of the Saddam regime with yet another US agent, he made obvious his take on the foreign policy directives of the current US administration.

That much was visible when both candidates for the presidency sought political advantage from the taped warnings, jousting over how they would protect the country in the closing days of the campaign to the White House.

Equally bothersome was the new kink the tape added in a campaign that traditionally has coasted along the linear of job creation and who best to trust for the top job.

However, what cannot be lost is the global attention the tape has attracted.

According to the Daily Telegraph , the tape's appearance is widely seen as an attempt to blackmail Americans. "The instincts of the heartlands are on Bush's side," said the newspaper.

"His way of overwhelming the president may very well prompt a sympathy wave for Bush," added French newspaper, Liberation .

As significant as the tape is, the potential for it to swing the election is not something that can be discounted. Lacking much of the blunderbuss and flowery language that typified earlier tapes, this one appears artfully choreographed to appear as measured in tone and deceptively genial to confuse voters.

Says Chris Ayres of the London Times , "With two words he could have swung it. But Osama bin Laden avoided giving George Bush a guaranteed four more years in the White House. He did not say: Vote Kerry."

Apart from how distracting the whole episode has turned out, the timing, the concerns, the message and overall the congeniality of the tape serves to make Americans believe what has been reinforced to them.

It reinforces their sense of partisanship, which unflattering as it is, is much about their bias on the candidates they prefer and the policies they want to see pursued.

Osama showed the world how much it takes to do that - just make a videotaped appearance. At least if he cannot get his preferred candidate in the White House, the damage he nevertheless inflicts is unsettling because of who he is.

JAYA PRAKASH lectures in journalism at FIS Education Centre in Singapore. He can be reached at prakruby@pacific.net.sg