COMMENT | Awaiting 'campaign synergy' in Sg Bakap

COMMENT | The upcoming Sungai Bakap by-election is seen by analysts as a gauging factor for whether the Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) "Green Wave" is still a force to be reckoned with, or the people have started embracing the coalition government rule of Putrajaya.

The constituency in Penang can be considered a "hot seat" since it was won by its incumbent, the late Nor Zamri Latiff of PAS, with a majority of less than 2,000 votes in last year's state election.

As the "reigning champion", PN's focus would definitely be on retaining the state seat in Seberang Perai Selatan. In fact, the opposition coalition would strive hard to win by a bigger majority this time.

Pakatan Harapan, meanwhile, will aim to seize the seat which once used to be its stronghold.

Although the outcome of the July 6 polls would not in any way impact the Penang state administration or Putrajaya for that matter, the race is still expected to be a close one.

If PN manages to retain the seat, it would mean that the opposition's "Green Wave" is still very much alive, but if Harapan seizes the seat, the credit will go to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's administration.

PN's ammo

It goes without saying that parties competing in any election will capitalise on current issues to their advantage while demonising the opponent, and this time, it's no different.

In the upcoming polls, a total of 39,279 registered voters are eligible to cast their ballots in the constituency, which is 870 more than the electoral roll in the last state election.

One of the main issues that PN would use as an "ammo" to attack Putrajaya is the diesel subsidy rationalisation, which has made the headlines lately.

Although Putrajaya has tried to mitigate the impact by explaining the mechanisms of the rationalisation, such explanations would surely not hold water for the opposition, especially in the heat of the campaigning period.

It would be a challenge for the government party machinery to ward off unrelenting "missiles" from the PN side on this issue, especially given the rationalisation's proximity to the Sungai Bakap polls.

In addition, PN is also expected to "lure" voters by campaigning on the issue of operating the Dual Language Programme (DLP) in some schools in Penang.

This came after 11 Chinese secondary schools in Penang opposed an Education Ministry directive requiring schools that want to implement the DLP to teach at least one class in Science and Mathematics in Bahasa Malaysia. According to the schools, there was no demand to learn the subjects in the national language.

The campaign fodder is also expected to include the issue of a statelessness programme scheduled on June 30 in Johor by Stulang assemblyperson Andrew Chen, which was meant to help Malaysians and their families. The programme was misconstrued as a bid to help foreigners secure Malaysian citizenship.

Although clarification regarding the matter has been done, the opposition would not let it pass, especially to influence voters who do not know the real picture.

Lastly, the water supply issue plaguing areas in Sungai Bakap is also expected to become an issue during campaigning.

Govt must double efforts

Political analyst Mazlan Ali said the Harapan-BN must double its efforts to convince the voters, especially in regard to the diesel subsidy rationalisation issue.

"The diesel subsidy rationalisation issue would surely be a hot topic in Sungai Bakap. The coalition government must relay information on the mechanisms used to implement the initiative.

"The government must present its 'victories', such as bringing down the inflation (rate), lowering the unemployment rate, and foreign direct investments.

"All these need to be 'explained' and disseminated to the rakyat," Mazlan told Malaysiakini.

At the same time, the government should also "keep an eye" on social media, as the opposition could resort to playing up 3R (racial, religious, royalty) issues in their campaign, he added.

Aside from the current issues, voters would also consider the candidates fielded by the competing parties when casting their ballots.

The candidate's appearance, influence and authority will not only be an added value, especially to fence-sitters but will also play a crucial part in regaining support from Umno supporters, who previously voted for PN.

The candidates' character would be a significant measure for the people to choose someone they believe can represent them in the state legislative assembly, as well as be a "bridge" for other relevant parties.

Harapan's move to announce Joohari Ariffin as its candidate early is seen as a strategy to attract voters. It would give the government machinery ample chance to assess the situation and make plans to face the opposition's strategy.

However. the government cannot underestimate the challenges that await in the upcoming polls. There's a high chance that PAS would field someone very influential in the area, whose aura cannot be ignored by the opposing parties.

The race for the state seat under the Nibong Tebal parliamentary seat is set to test the synergy and competitiveness, both on the government and the opposition side.

N FAIZAL GHAZALI is member of the Malaysiakini team.

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