It is with strategy, not so much policies, that elections are fought and won. This is especially true with by-elections where a change in government is not on the cards. Now that Ketari will see a straight fight between Gerakan and DAP, the only question left is the tactics employed by both sides in this crucial by-election.

Judging by the results of Ketaris 10 polling stations in the past two polls, there is no doubt that Gerakans tissue-thin majority of 231 in 1999 compared with its whooping 2,900 majority in 1995 was due to a significant desertion of Malay Malaysian voters among the Barisan Nasionals, and particularly Umnos, ranks.

In post-reformasi 1999, DAP improved its tally dramatically in Ketaris three Malay-majority areas  Janda Baik, Berus and Mempaga.

In Janda Baik, the Chinese-majority party bettered the measly 20 votes it won during the pre-reformasi days of 1995 to 176, while in Berus, it improved its score by 297, from 71 to 368.

Most telling is Mempaga, a Felda scheme populated by mostly Malay farm pioneers. Here, DAP got a miserable 10 votes out of 1,525 in 1995. Five years later, it bagged 545 votes.

True, DAP also improved its tally in a number of Chinese-majority areas such as Perting and Ketari Tengah. But if party strongman Lim Kit Siang is correct in his contention that non-Muslims have been spooked by PAS after Sept 11, then the going will be tough for the opposition party to defend its turf in this latest bout.

DAPs dilemma

Which is why it is imperative for DAP to retain, if not improve on, its gains in the Malay areas of this racially-mixed seat. But herein lies the rub. Not only has Sept 11 brought about a resurgence of support for the ruling coalition, the opposition is now bitterly divided.

Indeed, much water has passed under the bridge since DAP left the opposition Barisan Alternatif pact late last year. The party has publicly decried PAS Islamic state agenda and picked a fight with the new kid in the opposition block, Keadilan.

To its credit, PAS was quick to offer its support to the DAP election campaign. But can the Islamic party convince its supporters to vote for the Rocket, a party which has declared that PAS Islamic state plan could only be implemented over its dead body?

Even then, PAS will be well advised to tread gently. Clearly, its support can be a double-edge sword for its erstwhile ally. Dont be surprised if the ruling coalition harp on DAPs divorced but still sleeping together ties with PAS during the election campaign.

Keadilans support for DAP, too, is crucial. However, quite a few of the Keadilan leaders are still sore from DAPs refusal to assist the party in Indera Kayangan.

To compound DAPs problems, Gerakan is a more difficult opponent than its traditional political foe, MCA.

After all, Gerakan, while a component in the ruling coalition, does not have the lapdog reputation which dogged MCA. The party claimed to join BN to reform it. Whether it succeeds in its mission is debatable, but at least it still has a good boy image, relatively.

Thus, the attack against Gerakan for not standing up for the interest of the ethnic Chinese within the ruling coalition may not hold much water. DAP could go after Gerakans perceived mismanagement of Penang, but this issue may be too remote for Ketaris Chinese voters to identify with.

Better shape

There is no doubt that the ruling coalition is in a better shape to fight this by-election. Its stomping victory in Indera Kayangan two months ago  still fresh in everyones mind  will give its campaign workers the much needed boost in morale. Furthermore, Ketari has been a BN stronghold until recently.

Nevertheless, expect an overwhelming show of force from BN in Ketari. Perlis Umno has vowed to send 1,500 campaign workers while its counterpart in Selangor has pledged some 3,000. How they raise the money to transport, feed and accommodate this army of workers is mind-boggling.

Also expect more violence, the type which you dont hear or read so much about in the pro-government media at the Indera Kayangan by-election. It is however serious enough for the Election Commission to warn yesterday all political parties (read: the ruling coalition) not to employ thugs as vote canvassers. But that will no doubt fall on deaf ears.

When all is said and done, the party with the right strategies will emerge triumphant. Gerakan and its allies in the BN coalition have more or less a proven battle plan  tried and tested in Indera Kayangan. Will DAP, clearly the underdog in Ketari, be able to find a winning formula to seize victory from the jaws of defeat?

For that, we will have to wait until March 31. Or perhaps even earlier.