Much has been said and written about the leadership credentials, or lack thereof, of premier-in-waiting Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

The question, however, is not so much whether Abdullah can do the prime minister's job he can but whether he can garner enough support from his party to be Umno's undisputed leader.

Clearly, this is the unspoken fear of many party faithfuls when they hysterically cut short Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's quit announcement at the party's annual meet last month.

Umno has a long and bitter history of internal squabbles. Even a strongman like Mahathir has had a hard time keeping peace within the party. He was himself challenged twice in his 21 years in power by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Anwar Ibrahim.

Indeed, the party went through an acrimonious split in 1987 after Mahathir, who was in his sixth year as PM, survived a Razaleigh challenge with a tissue-thin majority.

Abdullah should not expect any different from Umno. Like Mahathir, he too has a number of rivals eyeing his job.

His key rivals, the party's three vice-presidents, will be mulling their options in the months leading to the Umno polls, scheduled next June but expected to be put off for another year.

Foremost on their mind is the deputy party leadership. Like Mahathir when he was tapped by former prime minister Hussein Onn to be his successor, Abdullah is not strong enough to name his own deputy.

He is likely to leave that decision to the party through an open contest.

Front-runner

While senior vice-president Najib Tun Razak is the front-runner for the post, the other two VPs are no pushovers.

Najib has the advantage of being able to draw party support nationwide Muhammad Muhd Taib's backers are mostly confined to Selangor and Muhyiddin Yassin's, Johor.

Nonetheless, despite being hobbled by the lack of a ministerial post and a past littered with scandals, Muhammad has spent the past few years working the party grassroots outside his home state. Muhyiddin, on the other hand, is from the state which has the largest vote bank in Umno.

Whether Muhammad and Muhyiddin both of whom were first elected together with Najib as part of the 1993 Wawasan (Vision) team when former deputy minister Anwar Ibrahim was swept into the No 2 post will contest for the deputy leadership rests on a number of factors.

Muhammad may prefer to sit it out as vice-president for another three-year term should Muhyiddin opt to go for broke against Najib. In so doing, Muhammad can play the power-broker and in the process eliminate one of his rivals.

Muhyiddin will surely take that into account when making his moves. He should not forget to watch his flank too Johor Menteri Besar Abdul Ghani Othman also harbours the ambition of moving up the party hierarchy as VP.

If Muhyiddin loses the deputy contest, it would be difficult for him to engineer a comeback if Ghani is elected VP.

Abdullah's worst nightmare will be facing a Najib-Taib line-up for the top two posts respectively, a repeat of the 1987 Razaleigh-Musa Hitam pact to oust Mahathir. It would be difficult for Abdullah to survive such a joint assault.

Biggest challenge

Yes, Abdullah with his long track record in government is ready and able to be the country's leader.

After all, Indonesia's Megawati Sukarnoputri has led a fractious, and an even more complex nation of 230 million people.

Then again, Megawati has the political clout to enforce order at least in her own party. The same cannot be said about Abdullah. This will be the prime-minister-to-be's biggest challenge.

And should he fail, Abdullah's stint as PM will like Mahathir's speech be abruptly cut short by the party.