Following two unexpected high-profile arrests last week, one thing is abundantly clear. No, it is not whether the current war against corruption is an election gimmick. Nor is it whether Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has the spine to make tough decisions.

The arrests signal that former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad can no longer protect his cronies, or at least some of them.

Clearly, Perwaja Steel ex-chief Eric Chia had been shielded from prosecution by the powers-that-be for many years. After all, the accusations of alleged wrongdoings were as old as a decade and the arrest came soon after Mahathir quit.

Even then, the investigation into Chia's role in the Perwaja scandal - where the state-owned steel giant lost more than RM10 billion in just as many years - was confined to the embezzlement of a relatively paltry sum, RM76 million.

Insiders say that the Perwaja probe - done in 1996 by international auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers soon after former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim found the company was insolvent and required massive injections of government funds - had unearthed a host of financial irregularities.

Chia has vowed that he would reveal all in court, but it is likely that much of what the burly tycoon has to say, given previous trials, could be ruled irrelevant.

Trouble looms

Nonetheless, now that the war against corruption is afoot, the question to ask is does Abdullah have the support from Umno? The answer is an emphatic 'no'.

Surely no one expects wild celebrations from a party where feudalistic patronage, money politics, and profiting from graft is endemic.

More so, the chieftains in the party's divisions are not going to take it laying down if they were forcibly weaned from the gravy train, something which is considered their birthright after years of apple polishing.

This spells trouble for the newly-minted prime minister.

Abdullah's game plan is simple - to spook these party warlords into giving way to new faces; people whom he can trust.

The coming general election will be his chance to do that. Expect Pak Lah to break party traditions by dropping most divisional chiefs and their sidekicks from the candidates list.

When all the president's men are elected, coupled with a convincing Umno victory, Abdullah's hand should be sufficiently strong enough to deal with any resistance when the party meets later in the year.

But rival party PAS may throw a spanner in the plan.

Abdullah's acid test will be not how well he does in states which are considered Umno strongholds - victory in these states is assured - but in PAS frontline states such as Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.

Fate of ex-boss

Which is why Abdullah is unlikely to go all the way in his war against corruption. After all, it could anger most of his potential allies in the party, including his still influential former boss, Mahathir.

Indeed, there is enough to implicate the former prime minister. Take, for example, his role in putting the Anti-Corruption Agency's decision to prosecute Trade and Industry Minister Rafidah Aziz on the back burner.

Compare this to the fate of the ex-PM's nemesis, Anwar, who was jailed six years for similarly applying pressure on the police to halt their probe into allegations of sexual misconduct.

Already, the position of a few key individuals who have suffered the ignominy of being investigated by ACA is becoming untenable. The list is long, and among them are key Mahathir appointees - Rafidah, Entrepreneur Development Minister Nazri Aziz and former Malaysia Airlines boss, Tajuddin Ramli.

Most are already running for cover, and those still holding positions of power are expected to step down soon in the hope that this would take some heat off them.

When all is said and done, Abdullah's credibility will rest on whether he allows the ACA and the Securities Commission to do their task, which is to protect the interests of all Malaysians, and not just the ruling politicians and their financiers in the corporate world.

Abdullah has said, time and again, he wants to hear the truth. Malaysians have indeed spoken - no one should be above the law. The war against corruption must not stop at Perwaja's doorsteps.