I have been to Hulu Selangor, Felda and Bandar Sungai Buaya to be precise for the last three general elections since my wife is a voter there. I do have many relatives and friends there.

Like everywhere else then, rural areas like Hulu Selangor are a bastion of BN. The MIC candidate, G Palanivel has been the Hulu Selangor MP for four terms before he lost marginally in the 2008 general elections. BN, on the other hand, won all the three state seats in Hulu Selangor, but not without a tough fight from Pakatan Rakyat.

Palanivel used to gloat that the Hulu Selangor constituency is huge and difficult to manage. He always says that Hulu Selangor is bigger than Perlis. Actually, there is nothing much to show for his four terms there. Much of the development in the area is attributed to the former Selangor MB, Muhammad MuhammadTaib.

Palanivel, I was reliably informed, was arrogant or at least his assistants were. Since he claimed that Hulu Selangor was bigger than the smallest sultanate (Perlis) in the country, he behaved like a sultan. He distanced himself from the populace and was busy with his government post and left constituency work to his arrogant assistants.

The Indians who turned their support to Pakatan Rakyat in the last elections are now confused. A large number of them no longer have faith in Pakatan Rakyat since they do not see much change in their area under the Pakatan Rakyat government and an absent MP.

However, on the other hand, they see that their option is limited to their most hated personality, S Samy Vellu and his proxy crony Palanivel. Most of those in this category have somewhat embraced the changes that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is trying to implement for the good of all but they cannot forgive Samy Vellu and his cronies for their past misdeeds. They might still vote for Pakatan if the BN candidate is from MIC.

This has led to emergence of at least five hopeful independent candidates, most of whom are ex-MIC local leaders, who was once close allies of Palanivel. These developments are surprisingly not reported in the English or Malay dailies and the Internet news portals.

Their declaration to contest (as reported in the Tamil newspapers) are mainly to harass Palanivel and pressure BN to change their candidate although at least two of them might actually contest. There were also allegations in Tamil Nesan , MIC’s mouthpiece, that former MIC deputy president, S Subramaniam, is behind these candidates with the intention of splitting the Indian vote, which could become crucial. Subra has denied the allegations, reiterating that he has no intention to cause BN to fail. These are some of the fights that take place on the sidelines where old foes have a chance to be in the limelight once again.

If one where to go to some of the towns within the constituency, only the blind would not be able to see the various banners and posters hung around the towns of Rawang, Serendah and Batang Kali opposing Palanivel’s candidacy.

In Bandar Sungai Buaya, where the majority of the Felda settlers have had their land robbed by a developer which had since folded operations, their message is clear: ‘ Solve our land issue if you want our votes’ These settlers had enough of both BN and Pakatan’s failure to solve their Felda land problem.

Pakatan Rakyat Indians supporters on the other hand, are banking on an Indian candidate to be fielded so that Indians votes will definitely favour them should Palanivel be fielded. Selangor exco member Xavier Jayakumar has been to this constituency many times, often to provide state government grants to Hindu temples, one of the piecemeal initiatives ‘a la BN’ of the Selangor state government.

Jayakumar appears in the Tamil newspapers (including Tamil Nesan ) almost everyday, to the extent that Hindraf accuses him of being publicity-crazy and a PKR ‘mandor’. Hindraf is not convinced of the state government’s piecemeal efforts and has been pushing for permanent land tiles for temples and grants for Tamil schools.

Despite all these, the sentiment on the ground is that if Palanivel is fielded, the Pakatan Rakyat candidate, provided he/she is a local, is sure to win. Although Anwar’s popularity has taken a dip, some local leaders do have some support. The Chinese have not been taken in by Najib’s various promises and they are still likely to vote for the Pakatan candidate.

But Pakatan will have an even slimmer chance of winning if they field any ‘parachuted’ candidate such as Zaid Ibrahim, who does not appear to enjoy the support of the Malays.

BN’s chances are definitely higher is they field any other young MIC candidate or even a candidate from Umno. But their trump card may lie with another huge personality in the state.

If ever former MB, Muhammad Taib is fielded, Pakatan might as well withdraw from the contest. Muhammad Taib is still hugely popular with all the communities, who still remember him for his service as Batang Kali state rep and also Selangor MB.

Unlike Palanivel, Muhammad Taib is humble, easy-going and has done a lot for all the races there. I was told that even hardcore Pakatan supporters in the constituency are willing to vote for him.

Najib has announced that the Hulu Selangor candidate will be from MIC. He chose not to announce Palanivel as the candidate so chances are he might have others on his mind. Recent visits by Samy Vellu and Palanivel to various areas in Hulu Selangor have not been well- received.

In fact, one of the visits to Sg Choh ended up in a fight (again not reported by the English or Malay media, mainstream or Internet portals). This news might have reached Najib, hence his refusal to name the candidate as yet. We’ll wait and see.