A party in crisis convenes, all eyes on Najib

The current economic crisis is nothing compared to the imbroglio in Umno, said an academic a day before the party holds its 59th annual general assembly and elections tomorrow.

Touted as the backbone of the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional, Umno suffered a major slip disc during the March 8 general election last year which witnessed a drastic erosion to its influence.

"Umno is facing a crisis of confidence," said Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst Dr Mohammad Agus Yusoff. "This is a crisis much bigger than the economic crisis."

He noted that the mammoth task of reforming the party awaits incoming president Najib Abdul Razak and all eyes are on him to see if he could help Umno in reclaiming lost ground.

"Although Najib has the capabilities to lead Umno, the question now is on the reform agenda. How far can Najib go to bring back the people’s confidence in the party?" he said.

Restore its fading image

Agus said the reform agenda would most likely overshadow the other issues at the general assembly, such as the social contract and criticisms of the Perak sultan.

"The most important element in the assembly would be about reforms and how the new leader brings changes to the party in order to uplift its fading image," he said.

However, he said it would be an uphill task since Umno is engrossed with the 'capitalism spirit'.

The Malay party, he added, has become Westernised in many areas. "The economy (policies) are following the western culture such as privatisation and cronyism... Overall, they have forgotten the basic governance of a nation."

Najib, by virtue of becoming the Umno president, will also become the country's prime minister while his deputy in the party will be named deputy premier.

However, the transition might not be as smooth as in the past, given the seemingly close fight between Muhyiddin Yassin and Muhammad Muhd Taib for the number two slot, said Kuala Lumpur-based Monash University political analyst James Chin.

He said a backlash in the wake of the barring of deputy presidency aspirant Mohd Ali Rustam could affect the position of Muhyiddin, who is seen as Najib's preferred choice.

Since Mohd Ali's supporters see Najib as being responsible for what happened to their leader, Chin pointed out that the disgruntled faction might cast protest ballots in favour of Muhd Taib.

'Mukhriz will win'

As for the three-way battle for the Umno Youth chief post, the political analyst predicted that Muhkriz Mahathir would win "without much problem".

The son of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad will be taking on Khairy Jamaluddin, the son-in-law of the current prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and former Selangor menteri besar Dr Mohd Khir Toyo.

Striking out Khairy from the equation, Chin said the biggest threat to Mukhriz is Mohd Khir.

"If Mukhriz loses to Mohd Khir, it would show a clear rejection (by the delegates) for his father (Mahathir)," he added.

On the contest for Wanita chief, Chin does not expect much fireworks despite the rivalry between incumbent Rafidah Aziz and lawyer-turned-politician Shahrizat Abdul Jalil.

"Even if Rafidah wins, she would be the lame duck chief because she is not in the cabinet... the stake is not as high for her. But you can never underestimate the Iron Lady," he said.

Commenting on the much-publicised reforms in Umno, Chin said the word 'reform' has lost its meaning and has become mere rhetoric.

"A problem with Umno is that, it has a lot of rhetoric and we cannot see this as reforms. It needs major action," he said, adding that Mahathir complained about money politics way back in 1994 but the practice still continues.

"Umno has to be strong again with the new leadership and their main focus is on how to make a big comeback in the next general election," he said.

'Najib is sincere abut reforms'

Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Dr P Sivamurugan believes that Najib could stay at the helm for a long time if he played his cards right.

Despite all the controversy surrounding him, the analyst said Najib still possessed the 'political oomph' to survive the tumultuous climate.

"If he can ensure the policy promises all this while and implement the national agenda, I think he would stay on much longer (than Abdullah)," he said.

Sivamurugan felt that Najib "is sincere about reforms and change in the party and in the government as well."

"With this, he needs to focus on a lot of things... our foreign policy has been very weak, economically and with the latest global financial crisis," he said.

On the same note, he added that the incoming premier must not only focus on winning back Malay support, but that of the other races as well.

"The locals, especially the Chinese, are not interested in national politics except for the economy. They are more interested in micro rather than macro issues. If Najib can counter all these issues, I believe he will stay long as a leader," he said.

Sivamurugam also opined that the real 'opposition' is within Umno itself and this contributed to its weakness.

"If Umno is not strong inside because of internal bickering, they cannot face the real challenge from the opposition outside... then, Najib will be heading for a very difficult task," he said.