A strategy for the sustainable development of East Asia's seas is set to be adopted by 12 countries Friday, after years of research produced a stark warning that environmental degradation threatens entire populations.

Hunger, job losses and conflicts will increase if the region's seas continue to be overexploited and polluted, according to a 111-page document outlining the strategy obtained by AFP .

"If current trends in environmental degradation are not changed, the social fabric of many nations could dramatically deteriorate over the next 50 years," the document says.

The "Sustainable Development Strategy for the Seas of East Asia" is the product of more than three years of research launched at a meeting in Dalian, China, in July 2000, and seeks to coordinate responses to the growing threat to the marine environment.

The seas in question are bordered by the countries involved in the project -- China, North and South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.

Ministers from the 12 countries are due to adopt the strategy at the East Asian Seas Congress in Malaysia's administrative capital of Putrajaya on Friday.

East Asia's population of 1.9 billion people is expected to rise to three billion by 2015, the document says, with about 77 percent of people living within 100 kilometres of the coast.

Marine biodiversity

The populations are also rapidly transforming from rural to urban and coastal settlements have developed into mega-cities now counted among the most populated in the world, with major economic activity concentrated along the coasts.

"Because of the region's geography, a large proportion of the East Asian people are dependent on marine food production.

"There are 10 million fisherfolk, and 50 million people are dependent on fisheries for a major portion of their livelihood."

The coasts "are major social and economic development zones, contributing some 40 to 60 percent of the GDP of countries in the region."

The coastal areas provide a continuous supply of goods -- fish, oil, gas, minerals, salt and construction materials - as well as services such as transport, recreation and tourism.

East Asia has a third of all coral reefs in the world, which generate an estimated 112.5 billion dollars a year, the document says.

"The value of the global centre of marine biodiversity supported by the area is beyond valuation. If it is lost, it can never be replaced."

Damaged ecosystems

Southeast Asia's coastal ecosystems have already been "severely damaged" over the past 30 years, with 11 percent of coral reefs having collapsed while 48 percent are in critical condition and 80 percent face risks.

Fish catches have dropped sharply through overexploitation and destructive practices such as fishing with explosives, while sewage and industrial waste - the major sources of marine pollution -- pour into the seas in increasing quantities.

Just over 10 percent of the organic component is removed by sewage treatment in countries bordering the South China Sea and unless this is drastically improved it will not only kill off animal life but increase risks to public health, the document says.

Pointing out that marine environmental issues are by their nature international, the strategy calls for the countries of the region to "adopt a shared vision of the seas of East Asia" and take concrete steps to protect them.

While the strategy does not involve new legal obligations for the countries, it offers a set of guidelines to ensure sustainable use of coastal and marine resources and to develop ecologically-sound economic activities. - AFP