MP SPEAKS The outcome of the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar will have huge bearing on the political realignment nationally.

Since the 2013 general election, Malaysian politics has experienced several massive political earthquakes.

First, after two years of intense battle, the conservatives and progressives in PAS split in June 2015. Abdul Hadi Awang’s conservative wing swung to Umno and became the latter’s ‘political adviser’ while the progressives formed Parti Amanah Negara.

Second, after intense internal pressure on Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak over the 1MDB scandal and ‘donation’ in his account, Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin was sacked on July 28, 2015. Subsequently, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad quit Umno on Feb 29, 2016 and launched the ‘Citizen’s’ Declaration’ on March 4, 2016.

Third, while Amanah was formed on Sept 16, 2015 and Pakatan Harapan on Sept 22, 2015, the factions in Parti Keadilan Rakyat have yet to agree on whether to back Amanah as opposed to PAS, and to make Pakatan Harapan the only opposition coalition.

Nomination for the twin by-elections is on June 5 and voting on June 18. The outcome will help clarify the muddied current situation in the following ways:

a) With Umno and PAS now effectively in a de facto coalition, will they both gain votes or cannibalise into each other’s base? If the voters abandon PAS, will the outcome hasten the second split of PAS?

b) How strong is Amanah and Pakatan Harapan in the eyes of the voters?

c) How much influence does Umno Team B, in particular Dr Mahathir, wield? Can they deliver disgruntled Umno votes to the Amanah candidates?

d) If the result clearly shows that Amanah is ahead of PAS in terms of voters' support, perhaps it will help ensure that factions in PKR finally come to a consensus to back Amanah and support Pakatan Harapan.

e) If Umno garners less than half of the total votes, the outcome may prompt fresh efforts to dislodge Najib.

In short, the outcomes of the twin by-elections will have a huge impact on national political realignment.

LIEW CHIN TONG is DAP national political education director and MP for Kluang.