After accusing Dr Mahathir Mohamad of making U-turns, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak himself made a U-turn on Wednesday, on the proposed bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 or Act 355.

Malaysiakini spoke to several political analysts to get their views on what motivated the prime minister to make such a stand.

According to Phoon Wing Keong, the main objective of the Act 355 agenda was to create a rift in Pakatan Rakyat, the now defunct opposition coalition comprising PAS, PKR and DAP.

Since this has been accomplished, he said, it would be counter-productive to keep pushing the matter.

"This primary aim has been achieved. If you push it further, it may cause a severe backlash. So from a strategic viewpoint, Najib has withdrawn (the earlier stand of the government to take over PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang's private member's bill), and he may bring it back if necessary,” Phoon said.

Chief among the concerns, he added, was the response of BN component parties in Sabah and Sarawak.

Of the 13 parties, eight are from Sabah and Sarawak, having more than 30 MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, which gives these parties immense bargaining power.

Phoon (photo), who is vice-president of the Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies, pointed to the growing calls from the East Malaysian states for greater autonomy, and how Act 355 is perceived as a product of racial politics exported from the peninsula.

"Sarawak Chief Minister Abang Johari had just assumed office. He has inherited the position from Adenan (Satem). He may not be favoured if he doesn't voice out on this issue (like his predecessor).

"In particular, Umno is weak and unable to intervene in the internal affairs of the BN component parties of Sabah and Sarawak,” Phoon added.

Furthermore, the analyst said, if an early state election is held in Sabah, Act 355 would prove to be a headache for the BN parties there.

Phoon also argued that Najib's decision made practical sense with regard to votes in the next general election.

He cited the survey carried out by Invoke, where only 10.4 percent of Muslims polled said that Act 355 would influence their votes.

Phoon said while Malay and Muslim voters would not object to the amendments, since it is related to religion, they were, however, aware that it is nothing more than a political gimmick.

"The economic situation is poor but BN is seen as being preoccupied with a theocratic issue while unable to solve bread-and-butter issues faced by the people,” he added.

In this context, Phoon said, Najib was faced with the prospect of not being able to garner Muslim votes, and at the same time, fuel the anger of non-Muslim voters.

“According to the opposition's estimation, Chinese voter turnout would decrease by 10 percent (in the next election). But if Najib and BN continue to harp on Act 355, it might cause voters to be upset and come out in full force to vote against BN,” he added.

'Umno would not lose much'

Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat concurred that the bill has succeeded in splitting the opposition, and if Najib pushed it further, BN would face pressure from Sabah Sarawak political parties, which would risk the ruling coalition coming apart as well.

On the same note, Wong said, Umno would not lose much whether the government takes over the bill or not.

“There are people in Umno, such as (Minister in the Prime Minister's Department) Jamil Khir Baharom, who truly believe in this (Act 355).

“For them, pushing the bill has two purposes - one is to break the opposition, and second, if it is passed, it will be a victory for Muslims.

"If the repercussion is minimal, the bill will be passed and Umno can take credit for it; but if the repercussion is great, Umno will withdraw it in the name of consensus,” he added.

However, Wong (photo) claimed that the bill has an enormous traction among Muslims in Malaysia, as it reflected some form of “Muslim nationalism”.

Should Dewan Rakyat Speaker Pandikar Amin give the green light, PKR and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) would find themselves in a Catch-22 situation as well.

If these parties back the bill, it might cause them to lose the support of non-Muslim voters, and if they do not support it, they would be accused of being disrespectful to Islam, which could affect Muslim votes.

As for Umno and PAS, if the bill is not passed, these parties can blame the opposition for frustrating their efforts to strengthen the syariah courts.

Both analysts were also in agreement that PAS would stand to lose more than Umno in this issue, but they do not see the Islamist party turning its back on Umno.

Among others, Phoon pointed out that Hadi's legacy is at stake.

“Seeing the amendments passed is Hadi's legacy. He can set a milestone with it,” he said.

At present, Phoon said, PAS has burnt its bridges with the opposition, and at the same time, it is not in a coalition with Umno.

He said if the situation remained the same until the general election, PAS risked losing its hold on Kelantan, while not having a place in the state governments controlled by Pakatan Harapan.

"BN doesn't want PAS to return to the opposition coalition.

“It hopes to maintain this ambiguous relationship with PAS in order to create problems for Harapan, especially to see three-cornered fights in the next general election,” Phoon added.