ANALYSIS | Umno may be in for a tumultuous time as speculation is rife that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is gearing up to have his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein replace present deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

While there may be other motives behind Hishammuddin's appointment as minister in the Prime Minister's Department in charge of special affairs, the move could agitate Zahid's supporters, who may feel their leader is about to be betrayed.

If speculation turns to reality, this may lead to a major break up in Umno.

"If Zahid (flips), then Umno will break," political analyst Ahmad Atory Husain told Malaysiakini.

Fellow pundit Jeniri Amir also believed such a move would lead to "sharp conflict" within the party.

A split with Zahid's supporters would be costly for Umno with elections looming, as the party's de facto number two is widely popular with the grassroots.

In the 2013 party elections, he won the most votes for vice president, securing support of 185 divisions.

In contrast, Hishammuddin almost lost his spot as one of Umno's three vice presidents, having won just over 100 divisions, just nine more than runner-up Mukhriz Mahathir.

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (Bersatu) strategy and policy bureau head Rais Husin claims Zahid is even more popular than Hishammuddin in the latter's home state of Johor.

"Hishammuddin is seen to be weak, that he's no action, all talk only," Rais said.

He added Kedah and Zahid's home state of Perak could also revolt in the event of treachery against the deputy.

History repeats?

Najib's move to elevate Hishammuddin's stature is reminiscent of 2015, when the prime minister axed his then deputy Muhyiddin Yassin and replaced him with Zahid.

There were rumblings of rebellion in Johor at the time, but this fizzled out due to a lack of action from Muhyiddin.

However it is too early to tell whether Zahid and his supporters would make the same tactical error, or if they would strike back.

Presently Zahid is toeing the line, openly saying he supports Hishammuddin's appointment as special affairs minister.

Jeniri said this is to be expected, and it is strategically wise to appear to be supportive of Najib's move.

However both Jeniri and Atory believe tensions may not reach boiling point.

"The prime minister would try to avoid conflict from erupting," Jeniri said.

Atory meanwhile believed Zahid himself would tell his supporters to remain calm.

Atory - who was a former Pasir Salak Umno strongman in the 1980s before quitting politics to join the academia in 1990 - claimed Zahid and Najib had a decades-long friendship that transcended politics.

Thus, he said it is possible that the two had reached an understanding regarding Hishammuddin's ascent.

"Zahid will not betray Najib, he will be willing to accept whatever decision is made," the analyst said.

He added a possible arrangement is for Hishammuddin to become prime minister, while Zahid remains as number two.

Jeniri said whatever political manoeuvres may be in the works, neither Najib nor Zahid should sacrifice national interests for their own benefit.