COMMENT | Over the long weekend, Anwar Ibrahim reportedly released a media statement.

The PKR and Pakatan Harapan de facto leader’s imprisonment is a blatant miscarriage of justice on multiple levels. However, his role in contemporary politics is rather more controversial.

The language of the statement, especially in its original Malay, is eloquent and statesmanlike – language that encapsulates Anwar Ibrahim’s charm and appeal.

However, after we recover from our collective swooning, perhaps it would be useful to look closely at the nitty-gritty of what he is actually saying, and whether the pretty words hold water.

More specifically, is the political reasoning behind what he seems to suggest actually sound, especially regarding waiting on negotiations with PAS?

One of the core messages in Anwar’s letter is basically: yes, we remain fully committed to Pakatan Harapan, but we reserve the right to effectively go against matters decided at the coalition level (such as whether to pursue seat negotiations with PAS).

This is akin to saying one wants to remain fully committed to his wife, while reserving the right to pursue some “side action.”

It is one thing to talk to another woman, and another to spend a night in a hotel with her. Similarly, it is one thing for PKR to have a relationship with PAS, and another to engage in unilateral seat negotiations with PAS while being part of a coalition.

I fully agree with Anwar in that there is no need to make an enemy of or demonise PAS. I feel so because I think that in the long run (beyond the next elections), there will be a positive role for PAS to play in the future of Malaysia.

However, not demonising PAS is not the same as not being willing to face the Islamist party in three-cornered election fights.

The core of this conflict revolves around seat negotiations.

Let’s dive in and flesh out what we are really talking about here, with regard to the conflict of policies between Pakatan Harapan (as literally signed off by PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail herself) and what Anwar and the likes of PKR deputy president and Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali are advocating.

The nitty-gritty of seat negotiations

When people talk of “continuing talks with PAS,” what they mean, essentially, is: trying to negotiate avoiding a scenario where Harapan, PAS and BN all contest for the same seat.

In and of itself, this would be good: there is no doubt that three-cornered fights are bad. Here, I think Lim Kit Siang has a more realistic approach than Liew Chin Tong.

However, the only realistic way Azmin (photo) and gang can persuade PAS not to contest in a certain seat (Gombak or Bukit Antarabangsa, for example), is to make an offer such that Harapan does not contest in another seat that PAS wants to contest (Kota Raja or Dengkil, for example).

PAS would be stupid to accept anything less than such a reciprocal arrangement; and to be honest, given its commitment to its current path, PAS may not even accept that.

It is one thing if PKR offers not to contest against PAS in a seat that PKR itself has been allocated to by Pakatan Harapan. It is quite another if PKR is trying to offer PAS a seat that has been allocated to another Harapan component party.

Quite simply put, those seats are not PKR’s to offer. It would have to act as a middle person between PAS and Harapan in an extremely time-consuming process – and one likely to be futile.

Similarly, any other self-respecting component party in Harapan would be stupid to give up its seats for PAS since, really, PKR (as a middle person) has nothing of comparable value to offer in exchange – except the seats allocated to PKR by Harapan – which brings us back to square one.

Even if PKR does offer PAS its own seats in exchange, this is still a problem from the perspective of Pakatan Harapan as a coalition, because technically Harapan is now contesting in one less seat than it was before.

So, while we can wax lyrical about the need for unity, keeping doors open and so on, any meaningful solution will need to deal with these realities. If not, all the talk in the world will amount to mere sound and fury, while the clock ticks and Harapan’s seat allocations remain unresolved.

As it is, waiting as long as we already have for Harapan to finalise seat allocations is bad enough; waiting any longer will be disastrous.

Best-case scenarios

To really play out every scenario, let us consider the following possibility, using Bukit Antarabangsa and Dengkil (both state seats in Selangor) again, just as an argument.

One might argue that an electoral pact for these two seats is advantageous because in one-to-one fights, there is at least a good chance that PKR will retain Gombak, and PAS will retain Dengkil – as opposed to three-cornered fights that will most likely result in BN winning both seats instead.

This is possibly the best argument available to those advocating continued negotiations with PAS.

Let’s be thorough though, and play out this scenario to the end.

This imagined end result may be better for PKR, purely in terms of the number of seats it wins, but it may not necessarily result in a net gain for Harapan as a whole (if indeed PKR is as committed to Harapan as it says).

Taking Selangor as an example, what has been achieved in the example above (in a best-case scenario, that is, as opposed to a worst-case scenario, where BN still wins both) is an increase in PKR seats, and an increase in PAS seats.

This may augment the chances of PKR leading Selangor, but it also augments the bargaining power that PAS has – putting it in the perfect position to be kingmaker.

Should PAS win a larger number of seats in Selangor, thanks to this electoral pact, than it would have on its own, who do you think PAS will support to lead Selangor?

If PAS had wanted to help form a Pakatan Harapan government, surely it could have simply done so before the election, rather than spend its time giving indication after clear indication that it prefers Umno instead.

One of the only other ways a positive outcome can be gained from continued talks with PAS is a massive change in policy on the side of PAS – from leaning towards Umno to leaning towards Harapan.

By this point, this can essentially only be achieved by an unprecedented internal revolt within PAS.

It appears that Anwar is well aware of this, given the notable manner in which he specifically singles out PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man (photo) in a statement that is long on flowery prose, but otherwise short on specific details, which says that Tuan Ibrahim has openly rejected cooperation with Umno.

Anwar seems to forget that the operative word in Tuan Ibrahim’s job title is “deputy,” and I think even the most casual observer can see that PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s grip on the very disciplined party that PAS is has been solid since the last PAS elections.

Looking beyond GE14

I remember how William Leong, who quit the PKR politburo because the party would not commit to ceasing negotiations with PAS, still stated that he respected how PAS was at least firm in its decision and committed on its path.

I’m not an omniscient insider who pretends to know everything.

Maybe PAS is an Umno agent actively leading PKR on to sabotage or further delay the consolidation of Harapan’s internal seat negotiations; maybe the little fingers of PKR and PAS are secretly working together to lead Umno on and turn on the latter in the end (one can dream, I suppose).

However, if the facts so far are everything that they seem, then I do believe it is time to eschew eleventh-hour politics in favour of the politics of principle.

If PAS wants to go its own way, let’s respect that, and let all sides meet honourably on the field of battle. If that field can be made free from muckraking and vitriol, all the better.

In our eagerness to make something of this upcoming general election, let us not forget that there will be many more general elections to come after it.

NATHANIEL TAN believes there is more at stake for the Rohingyas than traffic jams.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.