GE14 | Although there is a swing of Malay support towards Pakatan Harapan in certain states, it will not be sufficient to put the opposition coalition in power, a study by the Merdeka Centre has found. 

Programme director Ibrahim Suffian, citing Johor as an example, said while there was a swing of almost 21 of Malay support away from BN, not all of it was going to Harapan.

In Kedah, Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s home state, the Malay swing from BN was tiny at 1.1 percent but more came from voters who previously supported PAS.

"What we have seen is that there is a swing (of Malay votes) compared to 2013 levels of support for the opposition. But the swing that is going away from BN seems to be benefiting the opposition in very different ways.

“Only in Selangor has the opposition actually crossed the threshold, and been able to capture enough votes to secure the state government, particularly among Malay voters.  

“In the other states like Johor, there is a swing, but at this moment, it has not reached a threshold (to form the government). Likewise in Kedah.

“But in other states, the swing is in favour of BN, like in Terengganu and Kelantan,” he told members of the press after the 'Malaysia GE14 Outlook: Perspectives and Outcomes' forum at the University of Nottingham in Kuala Lumpur tonight.

For Harapan to take Putrajaya, it needed 14 percent more Malay support in addition to its current 20 percent, he added.

Ibrahim thus predicted that the opposition would retain Penang and Selangor comfortably, but would be unlikely to see much gains in other states.

“The only state where Harapan has the potential to deny BN a two-thirds majority is a state like Sabah, where Harapan and Parti Warisan Sabah might make some inroads... but we don’t think it will be enough to materially take the government,” he added.

The predictions were based on Merdeka Centre surveys conducted a week ago.

Large ceramah crowds not enough

Ibrahim further analysed that the large crowds at Harapan’s recent ceramah sessions in rural areas and Felda settlements were reflective of a swing, but not one significant enough to engineer regime change.

“If one were to see a swing that is effective, a swing that can bring victory, you need to see the Muslim conservative crowd there.

“Not just the young people and not just people who are reflective of those previously supportive of Umno, you want to see the PAS crowd there as well.

“We don’t see enough evidence of that."

‘Najib believes in Malay tsunami’

Also speaking at the forum was political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who said that he was inclined to anticipate a 'Malay tsunami' based on caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s recent actions.

Wong cited the temporary deregistration of Mahathir’s party Bersatu two days before Parliament was dissolved as an example.

“If a Malay tsunami is really not happening, why would you want to deregister Bersatu?

“You know why its good to keep Bersatu in the field and smash it (in elections)? Because then you can tell everyone they failed.

“To deny your opponent even a party symbol is basically to say you are not a pendekar (warrior), but a pengecut (coward)," he said, making reference to Najib warning his opponents that it would be unwise to incur the wrath of a Bugis warrior.

“The only reason to explain this is Najib actually believes that a Malay tsunami (is possible),” he told the audience of about 80 at the forum.