'No dissolution' gambit could put Harapan in tough spot

Pakatan Harapan’s earlier decision for the three states it is holding to sit out of the 15th general election (GE15) if it’s held soon may have put them in a difficult position as Penang DAP is now reported to be wavering on this stand.

Based on information from several sources, Malaysiakini previously reported that some leaders are concerned that they may be faulted for forcing voters to show up at the polls twice if the parliamentary election is held well before the monsoon season.

On the other hand, concerns were also raised about drawing the voters’ ire for U-turning on Harapan’s initial decision for the states they hold to sit out of the federal election.

Four analysts Malaysiakini spoke to were split on how the opposition coalition should approach the matter, with the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Southeast Asian Studies Department lecturer Serina Rahman acknowledging that Harapan finds itself in a “precarious” situation now.

“I think Harapan is in a precarious position because BN will be able to spin a bad story either way.

“(Umno president) Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is already saying they (Harapan) are not confident and that’s why they don’t want the elections.

“And (caretaker prime minister) Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s point of having state elections so that the rakyat are not inconvenienced and so we save costs hits home, though to begin with, this wouldn’t have been a problem if the elections were not to happen now,” Serina said.

The best course of action for Harapan now, she said, would be for the coalition to focus on what is best for the people because “they are going to get brickbats, either way”.

“So they’ll have to pick up the pieces and make the best of a difficult situation,” she said.

What is more important

What is more important than the matter of the dissolution of the state legislative assemblies is what Harapan has to offer in the elections, Serina said.

They have to be able to prove to the voters that they can help get the country out of its current difficulties, she said. However, that would be difficult as they had lost their chance prematurely when the Harapan government was toppled in February 2020.

Harapan had made the decision to have the three states in its hold to sit out of GE15, just five days before Ismail Sabri announced the dissolution of Parliament on Oct 10.

The three states being held by Harapan are Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang. The Selangor government has since received royal assent from the state ruler not to hold the state election concurrently with the parliamentary election.

Similarly, PAS has also previously said that it does not intend to dissolve the state legislatures of the two states the party holds - Kelantan and Kedah - so as to hold simultaneous polls with the federal election.

DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke acknowledged yesterday that Penangites had a “strong reaction” to holding the state and federal elections simultaneously for the convenience of not having to come out and vote twice.

Voters may be annoyed to vote twice

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said he does not rule out the possibility that voters will feel annoyed about having to go out to the polls twice within a short period of time.

Expressing his support for Harapan to hold simultaneous state polls with the federal election, Hisommudin said there is no issue about the coalition U-turning on its earlier decision as long as it does what is best for the rakyat.

“There should not be any dilemma for Harapan to decide on whether to dissolve or not. This is because Harapan argued, when BN dissolved the Malacca and Johor state legislatures, that forcing the elections is a waste of the rakyat’s money.

“In line with its own argument, Harapan should hold simultaneous polls with the rest of the country to save the rakyat’s money and time,” he said.

Hisommudin also pointed out that the risk is high that Harapan may end up losing the states if BN manages to win the federal election and is able to campaign at full strength for the state elections held separately.

While there has been some discontent on social media over the possibility of separate federal and state polls, most netizens appear confused over how that would work.

Ideas chief executive officer Tricia Yeoh said the last state elections in Sabah, Sarawak, Malacca and Johor, which were held at different points in time, are already a departure from the norm of holding simultaneous elections.

“(This) indicates that Malaysians will eventually have to acclimatise themselves to elections being held at different times,” Yeoh said.

Besides, she said, it is absolutely the prerogative of every state government to decide whether or not to dissolve their state assemblies, subject to the consent of their rulers.

“Their decision does not need to be based on whether or not there will be floods. It can be as simple as wanting to serve the full term based on the mandate of the vote,” she said.

Though Loke said Penangites expressed a preference for simultaneous polls, political analyst Wong Chin Huat believes the argument that voters do not want to vote twice does not hold water.

On the contrary, he said, most voters would be happy to have another election with five other states about 10 months down the line when their terms expire.

“That would be the time for them to cast their votes in support or rejection of the new federal government, whichever parties are in power.

“This is the mid-term election effect. It would be like by-elections, but the whole state going together, and Malaysians never complaining about having by-elections and all parties coming to them to make offers,” Wong said.

The political scientist from Sunway University also pointed out that voters would want “maximum attention and support” from the federal and state governments when the floods hit.

Though there is no preventing GE15 now that Parliament has been dissolved, at least the state governments can pay more attention to flood relief if they are not focused on state polls, he said.

“More likely, when floods hit, voters whose state governments are on full alert to save them would be grateful, as compared to states where both federal and state governments are sunk into the election.

“If Penang decides to dissolve the state government and the state cannot do its best in flood relief, Penang Harapan and the chief minister will get the blame,” Wong warned.

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