Nenggiri polls: PAS biggest loser, BN voters returned to fold - pundits

Perikatan Nasional’s drubbing in the recently concluded Nenggiri by-election was partly contributed by their voter base as pundits observed that Bersatu supporters have not only refused to go out, but some have given Umno their votes.

Political analyst Azmi Hassan believed the real loser in the by-election was PAS due to the candidate issue which led to the worst boycott by Bersatu supporters.

"The way the candidate was selected demonstrates how strong PAS is to the point that they can make decisions on behalf of Bersatu.

“This led to rumours that some Bersatu supporters didn't just boycott but sabotage by voting for Umno.

"So overall, in my opinion, the biggest loser now is PAS. The second is PN because, after this, there might be many more conflicts between Bersatu and PAS," he told Malaysiakini.

Previously, PN fielded Bersatu candidate Mohd Rizwadi Ismail in Nenggiri, but it was found that he was "imported" from PAS as he was a former member of the Islamist party.

Echoing Azmi, International Islamic University Malaysia academician Syaza Shukri said she was surprised over the result but believed BN voters are "returning to their fold".

Citing geopolitical reasons, Syaza said despite Kelantan being the PAS heartland, Nenggiri was historically a BN seat until last year's state election which she described as a "deviating election" as Bersatu managed to clinch the seat.

"In relation to that, I don’t think we can generalise this as Kelantanese rejecting PAS. Nenggiri is a specific seat with a unique history and makeup," she said.

Two days ago, BN’s Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani trounced PN’s Rizwadi by bagging 9,091 votes as opposed to the latter’s 5,739 for the Nenggiri by-election.

It was PN’s biggest defeat as it was their worst by-election performance since the 15th general election.

The total number of ballots received also declined 53.3 percent in the state election last year to 38.7 percent and it was the first time since GE15 that a seat has changed hands.

It’s Ku Li's victory, not Madani’s

Syaza also lauded BN’s strategy, attributing the victory to the coalition’s election strategy director Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, fondly known as Ku Li.

“As I see it, it’s not the Madani government’s victory. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s recent announcement of a civil servant salary hike did not play any role in the by-election. It was all Ku Li’s masterclass,” she said.

"Should he be made Kelantan chief? I think it’s possible to get a new face. But Ku Li is still very valuable," she said.

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat concurred, saying that Ku Li’s strategy of "keeping out" DAP from being involved in the campaign was right and a natural decision.

Providing a perspective on whether Umno would appreciate DAP's help to court Orang Asli's votes, he said the grand old party could get the group's votes, especially with Cameron Highland MP Ramli Mohd Nor's presence.

"So, even if DAP had campaigned in the Orang Asli area, and PN jumped on it, it's unlikely to whip up the DAP-phobia.

"The real consideration was perhaps whether Umno could get orang Asli votes and it didn’t want DAP to share any fraction of credit," he said.

PAS' dominance not unbreakable

Recent political developments in Kelantan have led analysts to question the long-held belief of PAS' invincibility in the state.

Azmi said if the winning margin was below 1,000, it would be difficult to make assumptions. However, a 3,000-vote margin in Nenggiri, previously an Umno stronghold, shows that PAS is not as invulnerable.

"If PAS can be defeated in Kelantan, it can certainly be challenged in other states. I consider PAS' invincibility to be more of a myth now, because in Kelantan, they didn't just lose, they lost badly," he said.

Syaza agreed, suggesting that support for PN, of which PAS is a member, may have peaked.

"We're seeing that support for PN has possibly reached a saturation point. This could be their peak. For PN, maintaining this level of support will be challenging, especially in attracting new voters, as seen in Nenggiri," Syaza said.

The analysts' comments point to a potential shift in the political dynamics of Kelantan, a state long considered a PAS stronghold.

The Nenggiri by-election results have not only challenged the perception of PAS' unbreakable hold on the state but also raised questions about the future trajectory of political alliances and voter preferences in the region.

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