PN and MN: Can PAS have its cake and eat it too?

Despite initial expectations that PAS would focus on consolidating control of Perikatan Nasional following Muhyiddin Yassin's resignation as coalition chief, party leaders are signalling that they are also still interested in reviving Muafakat Nasional.

PAS Youth chief Afnan Hamimi Taib Azamudden was among those who lauded his Umno counterpart Dr Akmal Saleh, for the latter’s efforts at reviving the PAS-Umno cooperation.

"The ummah will be strong if it wasn't divided. Politics must unite, not divide.

"The unity agenda surpasses personal agenda. May there be a shining light. Congratulations friend. Let's make this happen," Afnan said in a Facebook post yesterday.

PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari and Arau MP Shahidan Kassim likewise posted messages expressing excitement at the prospect of MN being made anew.

While more senior leaders in PAS have not made comments, it is clear that there is growing support within the Islamist party for it to both control PN and be in partnership with Umno again through MN.

However, this is not the first time PAS has tried to juggle both Umno and Bersatu.

The seeds for MN were planted after the 2018 general election, when PAS and Umno, which were in the opposition for the first time in the country's history, began giving way to one another in by-elections.

By early 2019, they had begun campaigning for each other, and in September that year, a charter formalising their alliance under MN was inked.

Things began to change in 2020, however, when MN joined forces with Bersatu to topple the then-Pakatan Harapan government, to form the PN administration helmed by Muhyiddin.

At first, Bersatu had wanted to join MN, but a lack of progress on its membership saw it move to formalise PN as a coalition, which Umno refused to join.

And then, in September, it was official. PAS joined PN.

While the Islamist party still tried to keep MN alive, the pact was all but dead.

In the Malacca state election in November 2021, PAS clashed with Umno for the first time since 2018 in seven seats, putting the final nail in the coffin.

Despite efforts by PAS and some in Umno to revive cooperation, this did not materialise, with Umno leaders aligned to party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi saying they would only do so if Bersatu is out of the picture.

The main contention is an overlapping voter base, with neither Umno nor Bersatu wanting to concede ground to the other.

Turmoil in Perlis

Such stipulations are why talk about an MN revival only came from the Umno side when tensions flared between Bersatu and PAS over the coup in Perlis, which saw Bersatu replace PAS as the head of the state government.

The tensions led PAS to threaten to go solo.

However, the tempers eased when Muhyiddin resigned as PN chief, opening the door for PAS to take over the coalition.

While PAS has picked up the ball and made clear its intent to lead PN, it has not shown further indication of splitting from Bersatu.

Zahid's camp and those aligned to him have also appeared to remain sceptical about cooperating with PAS again, wary of Umno being bitten once again.

They are also unlikely to want to be in a position where PAS is the "big brother", while having limited options to revive its political fortunes by having to cut a deal with Bersatu.

Bersatu leaders, already poised to become a second fiddle to PAS, are also unlikely to want to cooperate with Umno and risk losing even more power and influence.

Weakest player

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat expressed a similar view.

"If PAS gets both (PN and MN), it means PAS gets sure-win seats while Umno will have to fight Bersatu - assuming a pact between Umno and Harapan - and Bersatu will have to fight both Umno and Harapan.

"PAS is the absolute winner, with some 25-30 percent of seats in the peninsula and also guaranteed a seat in the next government - likely as the driver - while Umno, Bersatu and Harapan fight for the remaining 70-75 percent of seats in the peninsula.

"Bersatu, as the weakest player, may not have a choice. But why would Umno accept such a bad deal?" he told Malaysiakini.

He said Umno being second to PAS also crushes the Malay party's dream of returning to dominance.

On the other hand, sticking with Harapan gives Umno the possibility of overtaking Harapan in the number of seats controlled if it could take enough seats from PAS and Bersatu.

'Don't fear being the opposition' - Akmal urges Umno to leave govt

PM rebuffs efforts to revive Umno-PAS pact, insists govt intact

Hadi: PAS ready to take over PN, leader to be discussed soon

Anwar still PM if BN exits, but will Umno survive?

PAS to stay in Perlis govt, but snubs exco posts as top PN vacancy looms

With one WhatsApp message, Muhyiddin foils MN ambitions