Myanmar's opposition fears Asean betrayal

Asean has struggled over the last five years to respond to the Myanmar crisis following the Feb 1, 2021, military coup.

It was therefore no surprise that 99 civil society organisations (CSOs) penned a protest letter to the regional body following the Jan 6 visit of the then newly-appointed special envoy of the Asean chair on Myanmar for 2026, Philippines Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Lazaro, to Naypyidaw.

Lazaro (above) had gone to Naypyidaw to shake hands with Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and hold discussions.

Asean’s new chair has a lot on its plate, not least the standoff in the South China Sea, and the tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. But the Myanmar crisis and Asean’s adherence to the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) continue to prove a hard nut to crack.

The Myanmar opposition National Unity Government (NUG) and a range of opposition players and CSOs are seeking reassurance from Asean – whose performance is considered mixed if best over the last five years – that they will not recognise the Myanmar junta’s recent three-phase national election and offer the resulting administration any shred of legitimacy.

Military-proxy party wins election

In December and January, the military-proxy Union and Solidarity Development Party (USDP) won the majority of seats in an election that saw a poor voter turnout, far lower than the 54 percent claimed by the junta, and minus the jailed National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party.

Lost in the verbiage of a recent Asean foreign ministers’ statement Jan 29, following a meeting in Cebu, was a direct reference to any outright Asean rejection of the Myanmar junta election.

Instead, the emphasis of the statement was placed on the largely discredited 5PC that the junta has largely ignored. In addition, a representative from Myanmar was invited to attend the Cebu meeting.

The Philippines' foreign minister told reporters that Asean members did not go as far as endorsing Myanmar's junta-run elections, but "a good number" of the 11 nations agreed that "these elections might be something positive".

The Asean statement included the following: “We had candid discussions on the evolving developments in Myanmar and reaffirmed our commitment to advancing the implementation of the 5PC.

“We noted that any meaningful political progress can only take place in an environment of peace, security, and inclusivity, supported by the cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue among all relevant stakeholders.

“We reiterated our united position that the 5PC remains our primary reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar and further affirmed the corresponding Leaders’ decisions.

“We emphasised Asean’s commitment and role to assist Myanmar in charting a future and a peaceful and lasting solution to the crisis, which is both Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led, while reaffirming that Myanmar remains an integral part of Asean.

“We reaffirmed Asean’s position on the importance of free, fair, peaceful, transparent, inclusive, and credible general elections in Myanmar. We noted the conclusion of the three phases of the general elections.”

Asean envoy action

Khin Ohmar of NGO Progressive Voice said she was initially worried about Lazaro’s visit to Myanmar on Jan 6, “because she went during the period of the military junta's sham election. We were afraid that the military junta would use this for big propaganda and take credit. Indeed, the military junta did use it (in this way)”.

But the Asean envoy has moved quickly to engage with several Myanmar opposition figures behind closed doors since her Naypyidaw visit, she noted.

That said, Ohmar, who was involved in Myanmar’s 1988 pro-democracy uprising, is concerned that Asean has failed to secure any of the points of the body’s 5PC.

“If they think they can just have the military and the revolutionary side meet, drink tea or coffee, and everything will be fine, then they don't understand Myanmar's political history or real ‘positive peace’. Just stopping the shooting for a few months is not a real or sustainable solution; that is what we call ‘negative peace’,” she said.

“What we, in the revolution, are trying to do is to remove and abolish the military institution - the structure that teaches people to kill, rob, and rape.

“If we just go and talk to this group of people, including Aung Hlaing, without holding them accountable or punishing them through the law, the person talking to them would be a fool.

“People in the revolution are not that politically weak. So, there is no reason for the revolution side to talk to the terrorist military,” Ohmar added.

Opposition NUG seeks solution

Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson for the opposition NUG Prime Minister's Office, told Mizzima that he hoped Asean would not accept the result of the Myanmar military junta’s national poll and offer any form of legitimacy to the resulting administration.

“From what we understand now, in the (Asean) statement … we do not see a sense of recognising this ‘sham election’. We only see that they have ‘noted’ that it was carried out. We haven't seen them release anything that recognises it.

“So, it must be said that Asean does not recognise this illegal election. I understand the concept in that way. To be honest, we have always requested this. Because nothing will change.

“The USDP is also a party dominated only by people from the military. So, it is just military people changing their uniforms, taking the form of a party, and trying to make military rule in Myanmar last longer by changing it into another form,” he said.

The NUG spokesperson recognises that some Asean countries may be more willing to accept the outcome of the Myanmar election as “there are some individual countries within Asean that are very friendly with the military”. But “this does not align with the will of the people”.

Latt predicts that junta leader “Aung Hlaing will take the president position that will come from the USDP. So, it seems Aung Hlaing himself will continue to rule the country. Therefore, as long as Aung Hlaing is ruling, there is no reason for this country to get better. I analyse that it will only get worse.”

Fears about offering legitimacy

Many Myanmar NGO activists are concerned about Asean pushing a solution that includes the military junta, as evidenced by the CSO protest letter signed by 99 organisations.

Activist Mulan with NGO Blood Money Campaign told Mizzima that Asean continues to push for a solution through negotiation and discussion involving all stakeholders.

“To put it simply, the situation is that they will continue to push the NUG, NUCC (National Unity Consultative Council), federal units, and EROs (Ethnic Revolutionary Organisations) to have a dialogue with the terrorist military junta,” she said.

“While they are telling the military junta to follow the Asean 5PC to stop the violence, on the other hand, Asean countries like the governments and companies of Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand are fully helping from behind the scenes with the supply chains for finances, weapons, technology, and aviation fuel so that the military junta can carry out terrorist bombings.

“Actions matter more than words. During these five years, both Asean leaders and Lazaro have frequently used the word ‘peace’ for Myanmar, but their way of approaching the terrorist military junta is wrong,” said Mulan.

“If they really want to solve Myanmar’s affairs, the approach of meeting, talking, shaking hands, and issuing statements - without doing a single thing that can take action against the terrorist military junta, whether as a group of Asean leaders or individually by country - this does not work at all.

“The military junta will, of course, be happy. They can kill people as they like, and when the time comes, Asean leaders still come to meet them one after another. By frequently using the word ‘diplomacy’, Asean itself is supporting and encouraging the violence.”

Unity viewed as lacking

Latt noted that part of the challenge for the Myanmar opposition groups when attempting to interact with Asean is their diversity and lack of cohesion among the players.

“We are working with a focus on making cooperation stronger in both military and political ways,” Latt said.

“In military terms, the joint command - the PDFs under the NUG, the EROs, and alliances like the SRA (Spring Revolution Alliance) - we are trying to work so that all these groups are not fighting separately, but fighting and carrying out military operations under a joint command.

“On the other side, we are also consulting to form a stronger leadership group in political terms. We are trying very hard for something to emerge within this year.”

He recognises a stronger sense of resistance unity is needed to make it easier for Asean to engage with the voices of the Myanmar people who are seeking “system change” and not “regime change”.

This article is the last in a four-part series by Southeast Asian newsrooms exploring key issues faced Asean as the Philippines takes over the Asean chair for 2026.

Part 1: Malaysia's Asean chairmanship: Restraint over reform in a year of crises

Part 2: Thai-Cambodia border tensions test Asean’s peacemaker role

Part 3: Philippines takes Asean helm amid stormy seas

Malaysia's Asean chairmanship: Restraint over reform in year of crises

Myanmar issue: Five-point consensus remains Asean's main guide - Tok Mat

Asean has no consensus on Myanmar election results - Philippine official

Why Myanmar election won't change Europe's mind on junta

Myanmar faces Rohingya genocide case: What to know