Pocketbooks and protests: How Johor's Malay vote is splitting

JOHOR POLLS | As D-Day approaches for Johor, it’s becoming apparent that Chinese voters aren’t the only segment that is showing signs of disgruntlement towards those they voted for in the past.

While older Malay voters often retained longstanding party loyalties - especially for BN - many younger and middle-aged voters Malaysiakini met said they were increasingly prepared to change their vote.

One such voter was 55-year-old Mohamad Khairudin, who said his voting behaviour had evolved over the years and now appears to be in favour of BN due to Johor caretaker menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s influence.

The Puteri Wangsa voter said it was BN, and not the incumbent Muda, who has been responding to local issues such as floods, traffic congestion and fallen trees.

“Onn is the biggest gift to Puteri Wangsa,” he said.

However, not all who viewed Onn positively favoured BN, with some, like a group of friends from Puteri Wangsa who operated petrol stations, becoming borderline apathetic.

“We’re tired,” one of them, who only wished to be known as Azman, said over a glass of teh ais.

One of his friends, Ali (not his real name), added: “Politicians say one thing and do another.”

For Azman, while local politicians in Johor might be good, the people they report to were questionable.

“Let’s name names. Onn is good, but who is above him? (BN chairperson and Umno president Ahmad) Zahid (Hamidi). We don’t support Zahid; we support Onn.

“They (politicians) are testing things out in Johor, figuring out how to shape it for the next general election. The ones being made fools of are the people.

“That is why we (voters) are undecided; we are disappointed,” he said.

Although Azman said he was undecided about whether to vote, he expressed interest in PKR splinter group Parti Bersama Malaysia as a possible long-term check and balance because it had pledged not to join any government.

His friends, however, were less convinced, warning that the fledgling party could simply split votes without winning representation.

Meanwhile, in a Grab ride to Johor Jaya, the driver, who declined to be named but said she was an Umno supporter, said dissatisfaction with Zahid continued to discourage some younger Malays from backing BN.

“Younger people are struggling just to survive. They don’t really care which party it is anymore,” she said.

“They’re thinking about their livelihoods.”

Bread-and-butter struggles

Zahid has been facing a prolonged battle for support among his party’s grassroots, especially after he aligned Umno and BN with Anwar Ibrahim despite pledging “no DAP, no Anwar” during the 15th general election.

But it’s not just Zahid that’s weighing on voters.

Conversations Malaysiakini had with other voters in Puteri Wangsa and Johor Jaya eventually ended up with frustrations about the cost of living - a problem that they appeared to blame on Anwar and the Madani federal government.

A widow supporting two children said she intended to change her vote compared with 2022 after struggling to cope on a RM1,500 monthly salary.

“It’s difficult to earn a living now,” the widow, who only identified herself as Norshafiqah, said.

Asked what her sentiments were, she said she preferred the previous federal government before Anwar, but it was unclear whether she meant the one led by BN or Perikatan Nasional.

A husband-and-wife, Budi Nor Azam and Norhafizah Ali, who worked as cleaners, echoed similar frustrations.

They said rising prices had effectively erased the benefits of higher minimum wages, while household income thresholds meant they did not qualify for various forms of government assistance despite continuing financial strain.

Asked whether their votes could change again in the future, they immediately answered: “If they don’t do what they promised.”

Norhafizah added that she was also incensed by Anwar’s remarks at an event in Kulai earlier this week, where he said that win or lose, he would still be the prime minister.

She claimed that even though she was not a BN supporter, the premier’s remarks came off as arrogant.

“I’m not likely to give him another five years to become prime minister if we vote (in a general election next year). But I feel emboldened to vote, maybe to oppose him,” she said.

Meanwhile, another respondent, 29-year-old food stall operator Tajudin Muhammad, also said he planned to vote differently this time, citing expensive housing in greater Johor Bahru.

“Houses are too expensive. I can’t afford to buy one, and renting is expensive too,” he said.

In both Puteri Wangsa and Johor Jaya, Malays make up less than 40 percent of the electorate.

However, any shifts in their support could tip the scales, especially if turnout among Chinese voters who favour Harapan does not meet thresholds for victory.

How will Bersatu vote?

But there’s more at play in this election than whether voters support Zahid or Anwar.

A major wildcard is who Bersatu supporters will back in seats where the party or PN is not contesting.

However, a mystery Malaysiakini first observed in Larkin - where Bersatu voters appear to be keeping their cards close to the chest - was also noted in other constituencies like Semerah and Benut.

READ MORE: 10,000 PN 'ghost' voters will be kingmakers in JB's Malay-majority seat

Like Larkin, many voters Malaysiakini met in Benut - which is over 70km away - had no inkling how PN supporters would cast their ballots, with some even believing they had no presence in the constituency.

This is despite PN receiving almost 37 percent of the votes in Benut during the parliamentary elections in November 2022.

The situation is only slightly clearer further north in Semerah, where former Bersatu branch secretary Muhamad Mustakin told Malaysiakini that many of the party’s supporters would no longer automatically back PN candidates.

Instead, he expected some to support PAS while others could swing towards Harapan as a form of protest against the breakdown in relations between the two parties.

A village chief who referred to himself as Tok Can observed similar confusion.

“It’s like having one head and a different tail,” he said, describing conversations with Bersatu supporters who no longer felt politically aligned with PAS candidates.

Another village head, Dayus Tomiran, meanwhile, believed some PAS supporters had become more receptive to BN because they saw BN leaders actively assisting residents.

PAS is positioning PN in support of BN. If they had their way, this support could handily ensure BN’s victory in a majority of seats.

However, PAS is weak in Johor, and the majority of PN backers in the state are aligned with Bersatu.

Bersatu itself, however, is fractured - with those aligned to party president Muhyiddin Yassin the most likely to vote in protest.

With PN often the runner-up in many Malay-majority seats in Johor in the 2022 state and federal elections, any shifts in Bersatu’s support could tip the balance either in BN’s favour or against it.

Johor heads to the polls this Saturday.

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