How BN is using flawed polls results to deny PN equal partnership in Malacca

The Malacca state polls will be a major test for the BN-Perikatan Nasional alliance, and whether they’ll be willing to make major compromises or struggle for dominance.

BN wants the lion’s share of seats, arguing it should defend the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election, which would leave PN with just seven seats to contest.

However, BN’s argument is based on a flawed premise.

The results of the 2021 election were heavily skewed, as low turnout of 65.8 percent hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic, allowed BN to capitalise on the first-past-the-post election system and win 75 percent of seats with just 38 percent of votes.

But just one year later, during the 15th general election, when turnout surged to 79.8 percent thanks to the voting age being lowered to 18 and automatic voter registration (AVR), BN was wiped out, failing to win a single parliamentary seat.

Instead, PN and Pakatan Harapan divided the state, each winning three parliamentary seats. A previous analysis by Malaysiakini showed that PN’s gains were driven by a groundswell of support among youth voters.

Further, the 13.35 percent difference in turnout translated to a whopping 195,000 extra votes in GE15 due to the increase in voters from Undi18 and AVR.

In terms of vote share during GE15, PN and BN are in close competition at 30.9 and 29.6 percent respectively.

If the voting patterns during GE15 were translated into a state election, it suggests that PN would have won 10 seats, while BN just four, thanks to the first-past-the-post voting system.

The four seats that BN would have won in such a scenario are: Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh’s seat, Merlimau, as well as Asahan, Ayer Molek, and Rim.

Harapan, meanwhile, would have bagged 14 seats in a three-cornered fight. But of these, only four seats had an outright majority exceeding 50 percent, suggesting that a BN-PN pact could swipe another 10 seats from them.

Of these 10 seats, seven had BN as runner-up, and three had PN.

‘Respectful’ seat numbers

Speaking to Malaysiakini, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the data indicates that BN has neither the might nor right to demand two-thirds of the seats as it did in Negeri Sembilan.

“How should these 28 seats be divided between BN and PN? If Umno is treating PAS with respect, then it should be at least 15 (BN) and 13 (PN), taking into account both facts that BN is the incumbent government but it is weaker than PN,” he said.

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Syaza Shukri, meanwhile, opined that a 50-50 split would be fairer.

This, she said, would require BN to give up Malay seats to PN, while putting MCA in seats that Harapan are likely to win.

She also said that PN is likely to demand concessions from BN, citing PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, who brushed off BN’s claim to 21 seats - which was expressed by BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Malacca chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh - as a “personal opinion”.

However, one complication that might change the arithmetic, she said, is if BN were to consider Malacca Harapan chief Adly Zahari’s call for negotiations between the Madani partners.

“If that's the case, then it would change the calculation, right, (and test) if PN is willing to give way to BN more than Harapan would,” she added.

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