Tough for BN to retain Batang Ai, say party insiders

The opposition in Sarawak will normally shun Dayak constituencies during a general election - the reasons are obvious.

In most cases, the chance to defeat the Barisan Nasional is almost zero. Contesting a rural seat in Sarawak is a very expensive affair and there is no way for the opposition to match the huge resources and machineries of the BN. At best, it will only be a token fight should the opposition decide to enter the race.

However, for the coming by-election in Batang Ai, the situation seem to be different. For the first time in a long while, Dayak BN leaders - particular those in Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) - have quietly conceded that it will be tough to retain the seat.

Batang Ai became vacant following the death of Dublin Unting, a PRS vice-president and long-time incumbent of the predominantly Iban seat.

Several months ago, PRS president Dr James Masing warned that the threat posed by the opposition is “real”. This came about when several prominent Dayak leaders signed up with PKR. They organised several gatherings throughout the state which attracted large crowds.

At Unting’s wake on Tuesday, several PRS insiders admitted that it will be tough for the party to retain the seat.

Among the reasons were the lack of a strong candidate, mistrust among BN components in the state and the swelling support for the opposition. PKR also has a credible candidate in Nicholas Bawin, who lost to the late Unting in the 2006 state election by a mere 806 votes.

In the view of political analyst LS Voong, the forthcoming by-election in Batang Ai may be a watershed for Iban politics and for the community.

He told Malaysiakini today that if PKR does not win or do very well, the party will lose momentum in the state.

Bawin to be PKR candidate?

“They will be fighting a mighty financial battle as we all know,” he said, adding that if PKR win it may gather enough wind to sweep them into power in the next state election.

The Ibans form 94.6 percent of the 7,997-strong electorate spread over more than 100 longhouses in the Batang Ai constituency which is adjacent to the Engkilili state constituency - two of the state seats within the Lubok Antu parliamentary constituency.

Batang Ai is one of the 29 Dayak-majority state seats out of the total of 71 in Sarawak.

The Election Commission will decide on March 4 the dates of nomination and polling.

In the May 2006 state election, Dublin was re-elected with a 806-vote majority defeating his Sarawak National Party’s (Snap) challenger Nicholas Bawin by polling 3,298 votes against the latter’s 2,489 votes.

Bawin, a former deputy chairperson of Majlis Adat Istiadat, a state government body, is now with PKR. He is expected to be the party’s standard bearer for the coming by-election.

Voong said: “It is prophetic that it is in a winnable seat, based on last state election result. But then again, it is uncertain how the Ibans will respond to the massive financial incentives? Leave it and vote for PKR, or take it and vote for BN.”

“This (by-election) may be a watershed for Iban politics and for their race. If they vote BN, then they have chosen their destiny and should be happy with it and not complain in future,” he added.

The by-election is also a test for the resolve of Dayak politicians who have been perceived to be unsure of their leanings when it comes to the crunch.

So, will all the Dayak members in PKR rally round the party candidate once he has been chosen and work together?

Talk is that the former Lubok Antu MP Jawah Gerang ( left ) who recently joined PKR and who still enjoys grassroots support in the areas has indicated that he will go all out to support Bawin and ensure victory for the party.

Jawah is being ‘reserved’ for the Engkilili state seat to take on incumbent Dr Johnichol Rayong, who was elected on an opposition Snap ticket in the last state election with a small margin but has since become a pro-BN Independent.

The current MP for Lubok Antu is BN-PRS’ William Nyallau Badak who is closely linked to Deputy Chief Minister Alfred Jabu.

Anwar will boost PKR chances

According to sources, BN will either field Nelson Mujah, a district officer, who is the brother of the Natural Resources and Environment Minister and PBB senior vice-president Douglas Uggah Embas, or Nelson Naga Alam, the private secretary to the late Dublin Unting, and a local from Lubok Antu. Mujah is from Betong, outside Batang Ai.

Writing in his blog, Iban political analyst Joseph Tawie said issues to be capitalised by both BN and PKR in the campaign are many.

“For BN it will always the issues of development; but for PKR, the issues of NCR land, the lack of development, rural electrification programme and poverty will be the focus of its campaign.

"Help from PKR leaders like Anwar Ibrahim in the campaign will certainly boost Bawin’s chances.”

He said PKR must work hard to convince the Dayaks of its sincerity towards the community.

“Even though PKR leaders have been given thunderous welcome whenever they visit Sarawak, such a welcome cannot be translated into votes yet.

‘In my mind, it is more than a litmus test of support, but one that determines the future of the party in Sarawak. If it wins, the road to change the state government is clear,’ he wrote.