“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.”

- Thomas Sowell

DAP national publicity secretary Tony Pua wants voters in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections to give Prime Minister Najib Razak a black eye. "Do we want a corrupted leader like this?" he asked. Well, Yang Berhormat, maybe the voters of Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar may not have that much of a problem with corruption.

For instance, the fisher folk in Sungai Besar have no problem with the ‘kao tim’ culture and indeed the problem as related by one irate fisherman was that apparently the current Indonesian regime did not practise the ‘kao tim’ culture or at least those he interacted with.

Of course, it is easy to be judgemental when one is not exposed to the realities of the lives of these people. As a former sailor and somebody who has done his fair share of travelling, I understand why this culture exists, but more importantly understand why the vote buying of someone like Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to Sungai Besar fishermen would be appealing to a certain demographic and repellent to a privileged voting class. I know member of parliament Tony Pua knows this.

So if Umno delivers everything it says it will deliver, the cycle of complicity will continue. Disenfranchised people will continue voting for a regime which puts rice in their bowls. I am not talking about the urban class but rather those people who have depended on real power, federal power exercised corruptly for their benefit. That is the culture some people forget that we are dealing with. We nurtured this culture.

And why give Najib a black eye? He has already got a black eye in the eyes of the world - the foreign press, international public figures, and other smarter despots. This is a prime minster whose political power is sustained by cronyism, corruption, and regional and international hegemons with designs on this country.

Najib is afraid. This is why, he is simpatico with the Hadi faction of PAS, because relying on religious bigots is one of the few cards remaining in the deck. This is why his minions push forward the National Security Council (NSC) Bill even though the tabling of such a bill goes against one of the sacred cows of Malay political power, the institution of the Malay rulers.

This is the reason for more gerrymandering, the crackdown on opposition political figures, the muzzling of the press and the re-emergence of racial and religious polemics meant to distract from the larger financial scandals.

In other words, it is not a question of Najib receiving a black eye, it is the possibility of the opposition receiving a black eye. And this is by far the more troubling proposition.

The fact that the opposition spectacularly imploded and is unable to gain political mileage from the inept corrupt practices of the Umno regime concerns far more people who think the status quo is preferable, even though online opposition supporters rant about how some people are stupid and deserve what they get.

A game changer for Najib

So what does winning or losing these two by-elections actually prove? Even if Pakatan Harapan wins in these by elections, it would not be a political game changer some claim it would be.

Indeed, winning would just further entrench the animosity between political rivals in Harapan. Losing, and this depends to whom they lose to, would merely confirm the irrelevancy of certain component parties of Harapan and the continuing slide to a lopsided opposition relying on anti-Najib rhetoric instead of clear policies to undo the damage Umno has wrought.

I sincerely hope Amanah puts up a good showing because if they do not, what’s the point of going on? It would be better if they and all their members join the remaining political parties opposed to the Umno establishment instead of offering another Islamic alternative.

If Umno wins these elections, especially with significant non-Malay support, that would be a game changer for Najib. It would mean that the bait-and-switch polices that worked in Sarawak works here and the Chinese community [in this instance] is ready to return to the Umno fold. This would give this regime breathing room to operate. Sources within Umno tell me, that depending on how big Chinese support is, they really do intend to fulfil their election pledges.

In fact, a major swing in Chinese votes would not only be a psychological victory for Umno but also further damage the credibility of Najib's nemesis, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. After all, it was Mahathir who declared that he relied on Chinese support to remain in power during his dark days.

This last part is extremely important because nobody really knows the impact Mahathir has on the Malays. If Umno with a significant drop in Malay support, loses these by-elections especially to the party that has received Mahathir’s support, this would be a big blow to not only Najib but to the minions who act as his mouthpiece.

Meanwhile, Umno partner Abdul Hadi Awang has lost the plot completely. Like his political partner Najib, who wants to supplant the Council of Rulers with the NSC Bill, Hadi seems to think that he has right to make promises on behalf of God. Readers would be surprised to know that this has not gone down well with some of the more hardcore, old-time PAS adherents, who still view the conflict with Umno as an apocalyptical battle between good and evil. Go figure.

Some PAS supporters told me that they wish that PAS and PKR would formally break ties because then they have two options. Either working with Umno and turning Malaysia into an ideal Islamic state or [this would be even better], breaking ties with Hadi and Umno, and go back to winning the hearts and minds of Muslims/Malays and turning Malaysia into an Islamic state “with honour” instead of colluding with “corrupt Umno” or the “Christian DAP”. 

Either way of course would be bad for, well, everyone. However, why PKR continues to enable PAS is beyond me. Of course, there is a political motive to it but in the long run, it is better to sever ties now and see where the chips fall than continue playing poker with an Islamic political party which has shown that it would work with the most corrupt prime minister Malaysia has had to further its extremist Islamic policies.

Someone asked come June 18, what message will voters send to Najib? The answer is simple. At the end of the day, we all get what we deserve.

S THAYAPARAN is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy.