What will happen to Malaysia, now that we are going to have a new captain at the helm of ship of state in a few months' time?

This is an entirely new experience for many of our citizens of course. New generations of Malaysians have grown up knowing no other prime minister than Dr Mahathir Mohamad. For them, he has come to personify what it means to be the supreme leader of our nation. He has been nothing but feisty and combative, bold in his visions, never shying from a direct challenge, often controversial, but always firm in his conviction that he is right.

So how will Malaysia be like in the coming years, under Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi?

For the business community, the questions would probably revolve around the issues of macro-economic continuity and political stability.

Will Pak Lah continue to implement the economic policies of his predecessor, in boosting investor confidence and seeking sustained growth through an open free market economy at least in international trade?

Or will he launch himself on a tangent, and take an innovative approach of his own, to rejuvenate the ailing economy in preparation for greater international competition that would follow the implementation of the Afta and WTO agreements?

Will he release Anwar Ibrahim, and thus seek to reinvent the ideology of Malay unity, by working towards reconciling the newly emergent forces within the Malay community?

For Barisan Nasional supporters, their response should be one of optimistic anticipation.

Smooth transition

The transition of power seems smooth enough so far, and Dr M as the senior statesman behind the scene after his retirement would certainly exert whatever residual influence he will have, to ensure that there will be no challenge to Pak Lah's leadership before the next general election. With Umno presenting an apparently united front, and the opposition alliance in relative disarray, BN is likely to regain lost ground and even conquer new ground in the next round of electoral contests. Lim Kit Siang's famous Pendulum Theory may well prove to be true again, this time working in favour of the ruling parties.

The optimism of the Barisan camp is not entirely unfounded. Pak Lah does have a reassuring public persona. He may not possess the compelling dominating charisma of Dr M. (In fact, he would not be in a position to succeed Dr M, if he had flaunted whatever charisma or ambition that he might have.)

But his almost self-effusive style may be his best-selling point in an election campaign aimed at a multi-racial electorate. Instead of being a liability, his lack of track record as a prime minister could be the very thing that will strip the opposition of all possible ammunitions in any demonising attempt.

He will likely be packaged as a kindly patriarchal figure for all Malaysians, deeply religious but moderate and tolerant, certainly very sincere and quite clean. In time, he may even come to be loved by young Malaysians. All that the BN needs is a team of competent spin-doctors.

Awesome powers

On the other hand, independent political commentators worth their salt tend to be a cynical lot. It is not just about maintaining a semblance of objectivity. If you have witnessed at close range too many turns of significant events, watched too many prominent personages come and go, heard too many stories that cannot be published, you will learn to temper your feelings with a healthy dosage of radical doubt.

Naturally, Pak Lah's ascent to power opens up a new world of possibilities. For a start, he will bring a new style of leadership into office. A change in style is certain to introduce changes in the substance of government on many levels.

After all, the office of the prime minister has accumulated awesome powers after more than two decades of Mahathir rule.

According to parliamentary conventions, the source of a prime minister's powers lies in his prerogative to appoint members of the cabinet. As the last remnant of that rare breed of Asian political strongmen, Dr M cannot help but use that prerogative to his great advantage, consolidating his position as president of Umno, and ensuring the dominance of Umno over the other member parties of the ruling alliance, in a true realisation of his ideology of Ketuanan Melayu .

Just count the number of ministerial portfolios held by Umno, in comparison with MCA, MIC etc! As such, you can never expect the cabinet to practise their putative tenet of collective leadership and collective responsibility.

During his reign, Dr M has also engineered some very fundamental changes to the rules of the political games. He has done this either through constitutional amendments or other legislative measures that have altered the power structure of the nation. In addition, he has also introduced many administrative and political measures that have not only changed the unwritten conventions that determine the conduct of political actors, but also increased the concentration of the power of the state in the hands of the prime minister.

Thus, Dr M has been able to impose his will on many of the supposedly independent institutions of state, the palaces, the judiciary, the parliament, the civil service, the election commission, and the press, etc.

Divine guidance

What Pak Lah will do with all these powers must indeed a major concern for the politico-corporate circle, because there is so much vested interest and all sorts of largesse at stake. More importantly for the nation as a whole is the question of whether all that awesome powers will corrupt him, or will he use it to do some good, to change the course of history even.

On the one hand, we must bear in mind Lord Acton's famous but oft misquoted dictum, that power tends to corrupt, and absolute power tends to corrupt absolutely. The key word there is "tends". Power is indeed a terrible thing; it tends to blacken the soul of its possessor. If Pak Lah is as pious a man as they say he is, he ought to be praying hard now in search of divine guidance in this the severest test of his strength.

On the other hand, history has a strange way of working itself out. Historical forces at work sometimes override the individual will of any political leader. Sometimes, history appears to make use of epoch-making individuals like mere instruments, sweeping them along an unstoppable river of events despite their personal circumstances. Dramatic changes happen so fast, that long after they have occurred, we are still pondering on the reasons why.

We have witnessed some of this dramatic transformation in recent history. In the 70s, when Chiang Jing Guo took over the reign of absolute power upon the death of Chiang Kai Shek, he instituted a series of measures that opened Taiwan to a new era of strange but workable democracy. In the 80s, Gorbachov was the one man who began the snowballing of liberalisation, which eventually resulted in the collapse of the entire East European communist bloc. In South Africa, De Klerk co-won the Nobel Peace Prize, because he helped end apartheid rule.

Will Pak Lah be such a man? Or will he be another Goh Chock Tong, merely concerned with the survival of the Ship of State by entrenching the soft-authoritarian political culture of old.

It is impossible to tell at this moment. Our impression of Pak Lah is that he does not look like the stuff of which history can be made. That is probably why he was chosen to succeed Dr M in the first place. But then again, we may be barking up the wrong tree. We tend to be mesmerised by political personalities, because we are so used to the rule of man, rather than the rule of law. We often forget that the public image of any politician can easily be packaged and re-invented by a controlled media.

Factional warfare

Perhaps my question should be rephrased. Under what kind of historical conditions can an authoritarian state like Malaysia make a quantum leap into a new era of freedom, fraternity and equality?

There are far too many variables for us to say for certain when such a transformation is possible. But a clue seems to be that, an authoritative regime would have to implode from within before other external factors can come together in a confluence of forces to bring about meaningful change.

Judging from the repeated exhortations from both Dr M and Pak Lah for Umno members to remain united at all costs, they are aware of the real possibility for such an implosion that will threaten to wreck Umno asunder.

Interestingly enough, it is under Dr M's long and illustrious reign of power that Umno went through two internal convulsions, once in the 80s and once in the 90s. In both instances, Dr M managed to salvage Umno from the brink of self-destruction, relying very much on the sheer prestige and power of the office of the prime minister.

It is no surprise that Umno should face such dire menace from within. The close association between business and politics, that has gathered momentum under Dr M's hold of power has reached such an extent, that for the contenders at least the original Umno ideology of Malay ethnic nationalism must now take second place to consideration of group and personal interests. Umno has finally become a victim of its own success. It must go through a periodic cycle of factional warfare from within.

Therefore, holding Umno together will be Pak Lah's greatest challenge yet, for everything else depends on it. The real question that should be asked by any cynical but concerned observer is: How long can he last?