Intense heat, forest fires, signs of global warming
While scientists argue over the veracity of global warming, and people on the street ridicule the idea as they would alien abduction theories, the forests in our backyards are burning spontaneously. How? It certainly isnt ETs firing phaser guns. Its the intense heat. In the past week a short afternoon walk to the warung for makan seems enough to fry ones brain. Some say outdoor temperatures have hit a wilting 40C.
Malaysians are praying for the reprieve of rain to make the torrid afternoons and uncomfortably warm nights more bearable ( Ironically, right before this article was published, it was pouring rain in the Klang Valley Ed. ) The forest and peat swamps on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia are parched and only a deluge can put out smouldering underground fires that aerial water bombs using bambi buckets have failed to quench. The water level at the Durian Tunggal dam in Malacca continues to plummet, raising worries that the state may have to ration water.
The Malaysian Meteorological Services says that things are normal as temperatures remain the same as in previous years, despite the general feeling that this year that the heat seems more intense. MMS says the rise in temperature is cyclical and that January and February are known to be dry months of the year. Rains are expected to come in a week or two. There will apparently be plenty of rainfall in March.
However, the MMS Weather outlook during the 2001/2002 Northeast Monsoon report says that rainfall for February and March is expected to be average to slightly below average.
Gurmit Singh, executive director of the Centre for Environment, Technology and Development Malaysia says rainfall decrease is an indicator of global warming, as are temperature increase and the occurrence of forest fires.
If the temperature is normal as MMS says, why then have we not had as many forest fires in the past? Why has the Durian Tunggal dam not reached below 70 percent last year and the year before that? Why do people on the street say that they dont remember the weather being so hot and dry?
Winds of change
The MMS Climate of Malaysia says the that April and May are the months with the highest average monthly temperature while December and January have the lowest monthly average temperature.
Are we expecting higher temperatures and hotter days in April and May? Alternatively, if January and February remain the months with highest average monthly temperature, are we witnessing a change in the weather pattern?
MMS attributes the higher temperature in January and February this year to the lack of rain. Its senior meteorologist S Santhira Segaran explains that this year the wind patterns had changed a bit from previously. The northeastern monsoon from the northern hemisphere blowing over Peninsular Malaysia did not converge before crossing over the Equator as it usually does. The winds normally converge just above the Equator when a low pressure belt builds up. This hadnt happened this year, said Santhira. The low pressure belt has formed in the southern hemisphere.
The winds blew over and brought heavy rains to Indonesia instead, leaving the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia dry, stuck with a high-pressure system which creates stagnation in the region. In order to promote rain there must be turbulence in the atmosphere. This explains why there has been no rain.
However, Gurmit believes that the MMS has declared all is well so as to not to alarm the population.
Gurmit also suggests that the El Nino weather phenomenon may be making a comeback into the region.
Azman Zainal Abidin, a lecturer with Universiti Pertanian Malaysias Faculty of Environment, who concurs with Gurmit, says the ordinarily dry season of December-March may have been aggravated by the El-Nino phenomenon lurking in the region.
Global climate change
The explanation that the rain-bringing northeast wind has simply blown over us is perhaps easy to believe. However, the heat may in reality indicate the more insidious workings of mother nature. The high temperature and lack of rain may connote changes in the climate of global magnitude. The Malaysian heat wave may not be localised. Soaring temperatures, sporadic forest fires and raised sea levels are ominous signs of change in climatic conditions.
A gathering of 2,500 scientists from around world last year in Morocco came to a consensus that they are more certain now that the global climate is changing. And we in Malaysia today bear witness to this portentous change in the form of extreme weather conditions.
Gurmit, however, clarifies that global climate may just be one of the explanations for the condition Malaysia is undergoing. He explains that the manifestations of climate change may vary from region to region for Malaysia it may be heat and no rain, in other countries it may be different.
The environmentalist explains that there is a difference between weather change and climate change. Weather change is seasonal whereas climate change is long term. Perhaps then the drier January and February are here to stay and may only worsen. But the climate is a different creature to predict and requires extensive and long-term study, said Gurmit.
There are very few regional models that scientists have created to assess climate change. Scientists study climate change on a global scale. There is yet to be a model for climate change for Southeast Asia.
However, according to Gurmit there are other studies that show there has been a temperature increase of 0.5 percent in the last 30 to 40 years in Malaysia. He also says that the sea levels around the world are expected to increase by 20cm to 30cm in the next 50 years. This will leave many of our low-lying land inundated.
The 1997 smog
The year 1997 is memorable if only for those in Kuala Lumpur who witnessed the KL Tower disappearing in broad daylight, and it wasnt a David Copperfield act, either. The disappearance was caused by the thick smog that had enveloped the country, dangerously lowering visibility.
The haze then was believed to have been caused by open burning taking place in huge plantations in Indonesia. Up to 80 percent of the haze in Malaysia was said to be caused by Indonesian fires. Only 20 percent was attributed to local vehicular fumes and open burning in plantations in Malaysia..
This year, however, the haze in Malaysia seems to be home grown, although satellite images do show hot spots in Sumatra. Hot spots are areas that are burning, in plantations that have bad agricultural practices, as well as forest and bush fires caused by spontaneous combustion or human carelessness.
The 1997 smog, however, enveloped the country between June and September and not during the dry weather period of January and February such as it is now. The smog then was aggravated by the south-west wind blowing towards Malaysia from Indonesia. The winds blew across the Straits of Malacca carrying particles that bring on the hazy conditions.
This is not the case this year. This time the winds are blowing from Malaysia into Indonesia.
El Nino was also said to have played its part in causing high temperatures in Indonesia which brought on the massive and widespread forest fires.
The heat, humidity and smog may affect peoples health, although as of now there may not be queues at private clinics or government hospital. Or are there?
We wont know, will we? says Gurmit. Private practitioners are not obliged to report incidents of respiratory illness to the Health Ministry. How then can we monitor the health of the population who are today breathing in unhealthy air? The illnesses may have a delayed effect, or may take place in the near future.
Gurmit says it is imperative that the Health Ministry mobilises proper reporting mechanism for respiratory illness immediately.
He urges Health Minister Chua Jui Meng to co-ordinate with the Minister of Science, Technology and Environment (Moste). The Health Ministry had in 1997 set up an environmental health unit. This unit should then work with Mostes Department of Environment which monitors the level of air pollution, among others.
The government will not be able to draw an accurate conclusion of the effects of a deteriorating environment and the nations health without the two government agencies working hand in hand, said Gurmit.
According to Azman of UPM, independent readings he had conducted recently reveal that the humidity levels have dropped to as low as 30 percent. Normally in the mornings humidity is 100 percent and above, and lower in the afternoons at 60 or 50 percent.
The weather also gives rise to heat islands he said. This when a city itself is warmer than the areas outside it. The city has many solid surfaces such as buildings and roads. These surfaces trap heat in the day, releasing them at night. This partially explains the heat we feel even at sundown and at night.
El Nino
What is El Nino ? The term means Christ Child and was first used by Peruvian fishermen in the late 1800s to describe the warm current appearing off the western coast of Peru around Christmas. Today El Nino describes the warming of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
How do we know El Nino is here? Certain changes typically occur to both the atmosphere and ocean during periods of El Nino . When wind velocity, sea surface temperature, surface air pressure and sea level change, it may indicate the presence of El Nino .
Other indications:
