After being repeatedly 'advised' and 'warned' by top Umno leaders, including Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, the protracted civil war in MCA not only continues but intensifies.

Dr Ling Liong Sik, the besieged president and transport minister, has certainly aggravated the situation by hinting recently in Putrajaya that if his faction wins the coming party elections, the dissidents and challengers will be 'disciplined'.

Delivering a political threat from Putrajaya carries a certain degree of authority and credibility, especially among the more credulous, malleable and timid leaders, members and supporters of Team B.

We do not have to be war psychologists to understand the psychological response of leaders, members and supporters of Team B to that threat since they will be axed or 'disciplined' in various forms should they lose the party elections, the only option now is to fight harder.

In military terms, Ling's open expression of his determination of waging a 'total war of annihilation' against his opponents only serves to strengthen the resolve of Team B to fight a 'do-or-die' battle. Logically speaking, there is no two ways about it.

Assuming Ling and his faction really win, the first person to be axed would most likely be the rebellious Youth chief Ong Tee Keat, whose methods of defying the president openly in the past few months have been rather unorthodox in MCA's conservative culture.

Ong has obviously damaged the personal ego and self-esteem of Ling who has long been self-styling himself to be quietly powerful, paternally calm, magnanimous and inclusive.

Presidential material

Vice-president and Health Minister Chua Jui Meng would be second on Ling's chopping block.

Possessing all the essential ingredients, long enough in the party, mature enough to be socially responsible, educated enough to be a cabinet minister and ambitious enough to lead the party, Chua is regarded by many as presidential material.

However, this composition of presidential ingredients is, and will always be a threat to the incumbent president, as long as Chua is still a member of the party.

In feudal or pre-modern cultures, to be as smart or as capable as one's superior, or merely perceived by the superior to be so, is always dangerous.

Getting rid of Ong and Chua will not only restore Ling's sense of power and self-worth, but also pave the way for Ling's protege, Ong Ka Ting to succeed him as the next president.

A former political secretary to Ling, Ong Ka Ting is expected, or even entrusted by the party president and his business and political supporters to continue his policies and strategies.

Mahathir has no legally enforceable copyright for this script.

The rest, like Lim Ah Lek and Chan Kong Choy, are safe if Ling wins the party with overwhelming majority.

Firstly, they are not a threat to Ling and his protege. Secondly, getting rid of the Youth chief and Chua while retaining Lim and Chan would give Ling an image of being 'impartial', 'fair', 'balanced' and ' still inclusive'.

Moreover, while Lim is aging, Chan is easily negotiable and co-optable. Ling knows what Chan wants a full ministership.

Chan's interest is served if Chua is removed from the party and a ministerial vacancy is created.

Umno's hope

However, the impression given by the reports and commentaries of the Umno-controlled newspapers is that Team B is gaining strength while Team A is facing the problem of massive defection.

It is difficult for outsiders to distinguish Umno's assessment from Umno's hope.

The hypothesis that Umno secretly hopes for a Team B victory is not without basis.

Strategically, a relatively weakened Umno cannot afford to have a strong MCA under the leadership of Team A as a coalition partner.

Specifically, a Team B victory will boost the morale of Pahang MCA which is solidly behind Lim Ah Lek.

And a high-spirited Pahang MCA would not only help Umno to resist the offensive of BA and DAP, but also personally benefit Umno Vice-president Najib Tun Razak who retained his parliamentary seat in state with a razor-thin 241-majority in the last general elections.

A Team B victory would also help Penang Gerakan to get rid of the relatively strong Team A in the state which has constantly demanded for greater power sharing within the state government.

There was once when it even wanted the position of chief ministership of the Chinese-predominated state.

However, the 'meat' for Pahang Umno and Gerakan in Penang could be the 'poison' for Johor Umno. Johor is a Team A stronghold and homeground for Ling and his protege Ong. The southern state is also an Umno bastion.

Mahathir's failure

There could also be a divergence of interest between Mahathir and other younger Umno leaders.

For Mahathir whose paramount interest is to see Barisan Nasional win handsomely in the next general elections so that he could regain his honour a Team A victory would be more preferable because it commands huge resources, including three Chinese-language and one English-language newspapers and the loyalty of established Chinese businessmen.

However, that huge amount of resources commanded by Team A could pose a threat to Mahathir's successor, whoever he may be.

A strong, powerful and wealthy MCA under the uninterrupted leadership of Ling would simply dwarf Umno in intra-coalition negotiations and policy-making.

In that case, Umno would need to ally more closely with Gerakan, MIC, PPP, SUPP and other minor BN component parties to balance against Ling's MCA.

From this perspective, the strategic interests of Penang Gerakan and National Gerakan diverge.

Whatever the final outcome, one thing is already certain: Mahathir, however powerful he appears to be in the media, has failed miserably to stop or moderate the power struggle in MCA. It is heading toward a 'do-or-die' situation.

Mahathir was so 'successful' in Umno's internal power struggles over the last 20 years that everyone in MCA now have decided to emulate him.

It is impossible for the premier to convince others "to do what I say but not what I do".

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia

which produces subscriber-based political reports. Wong is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew , he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute for 1998 and 1999.