One of the little appreciated victims of the new "war against terrorism" phase of international politics is Asean or, to put it more bluntly, the future of the so-called Southeast Asia-10 as a regional grouping.

There are several ways in which this largely ignored truism in our very midst can be better understood but the curious absence of a regional focus in Prime Minister Mahathir's otherwise pro-active foreign policy in recent months is just one indication of the parlous state of Southeast Asian affairs.

Naturally, people will tend to say that the ongoing Indonesian drama in the post-Suharto period has acted as an effective damper on any prospect of positive moves in other pressing regional issues.

Equally, it can be argued that the disappearance of the Democrats from the seat of power in Thailand literally meant that the reformist zeal in that nation's recent foreign policy has significantly waned. Indeed, the rise of the Thaksin administration appears to have turned the clock back in such matters as "constructive engagement" that Asean had earlier considered when it came to dealing with the domestic situation of some of its newer members.

The saga of the euphemistically stage-managed genocide trials that Cambodian strongman Hun Sen appears to be bent on foisting on the international community is a clear sign of the regression process at work in Asean in the aftermath of Sept 11.

Artful dodging

In these circumstances, the least acceptable of the hotchpotch of semi-democratic and benignly authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia appears to be getting away with an artful dodging of the United Nations Secretary-General's special envoy, the former Malaysian diplomat, Razali Ismail, on the one hand, and the court of international public opinion, on the other.

The latest news of the military authorities in Burma having successfully put down an attempted coup that has been strangely linked to former dictator, Ne Win's family is possibly another ploy in this cat-and-mouse game that the generals have been playing.

Since late 2000, just before the appointment of Razali as Kofi Annan's intermediary, some kind of talks had apparently been initiated by the military junta with the National League for Democracy's most eminent person, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, despite keeping her under virtual house arrest.

Razali's subsequent visits to Rangoon have not thrown much new light on what was being negotiated between the two sides other than a vague indication that they were aimed at achieving a sort of national reconciliation. This and the confirmation of the fact that something was going on in Burma with the prospect of political change in the future immediately led to a noticeable respite for the generals from the pressure of sanctions and other restrictions imposed on them particularly by the US and the European Community.

It is popularly believed that Japan is especially anxious to be permitted to resume its development aid in order to kick-start the badly battered Burmese economy and various types of humanitarian aid are already flowing into the state coffers.

Accountability on hold

The downside of the repercussions of the "war against terrorism" global syndrome as far as we in this region are concerned is that the "hold", such as it was, that the original Asean core members had on the generals to be accountable for the intolerable situation in Burma has been somewhat weakened due to the new concerns about regional security and stability.

Even more so, it is a great pity that a regional figure such as Mahathir whose voice clearly carried much weight with those in charge of the military junta as he had been personally responsible for having overcome the initial reservations of his Asean colleagues in bringing the Burmese into the organisation in 1995 does not now seem to be that influential any more.

There is a real fear among those who support the return of normalcy in Burma as a trigger mechanism for the general economic reconstruction of the region that the so-called talks are nothing more than a convenient peg on which to hang the primary interest of the generals to stay in power for as long as possible.

All sorts of human rights violations continue to be perpetrated against the people of that unfortunate nation by the regime and its henchmen while the tremendous potential of a vast number of its most able and talented citizens remains unexploited as they live in exile in various foreign capitals.

In these somewhat unacceptable circumstances one wonders what purpose is there in carrying on believing in the presumed intention to achieve national reconciliation or even in the prospect of external intervention whether through official or quiet diplomacy. It is indeed an irony that both the key foreign friends of Burma who might have made the greatest difference to the resolution of this seemingly intractable regional mess happen to be Malaysian.

Jayavarman is the pseudonym of a Southeast Asian scholar who has taught and worked in regional universities and research centres.