By When an analyst of the conservative US think tank Heritage Foundation wrote two years ago that the US-Philippines alliance must be rebuilt against the backdrop of China's assertiveness in East Asia, he did so without the international political context shaped by the Sept 11 attacks.

But today, Richard Fischer Jr, director of the foundation's Asian Studies Centre, may be happy to note that thanks to Sept 11, his recommendations — reiterated by a Rand study commissioned last year by the deputy chief of staff, air and space operations of the US Air Force — have been set in motion.

"The Americans have achieved what they've always wanted in South-east Asia. They now have bilateral relationships with countries that keep the sea lanes open," says one diplomat. "Sept 11 was the trigger. It generated felicitous events."

Fischer had anchored his argument on how US economic interests — defined in terms of how Asian markets would mean jobs for Americans — would be served by the reinforcement of American military presence in East Asia to counter China, and corollarily, the preservation of key sea lanes in the region.

This, he had said, would correct the lower US security profile in the last decade, highlighted by the rupture in the Washington-Manila alliance due to the Philippines' rejection a new military bases agreement in Sept1991.

Power vacuum

"The lack of defence cooperation between old allies has created a power vacuum (in Asia) that China has been exploiting," Fischer said.

He noted how China has built and expanded structures in the South China Sea, particularly Mischief Reef, which is in the disputed Spratly island group and is claimed the Philippines.

The Spratlys are claimed wholly or in part by the Philippines, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei.

Such aggressiveness on the part of China, Fischer concluded, "threaten a key US security interest in Asia: maintaining the freedom of the seas".

He noted that about 70 percent of Japan's and South Korea's oil resources flow through this sea lane. "The economies of these countries, in turn, support regional commerce that helps to sustain U.S. exports to Asia, which support about four million jobs in the United States."

The reality has been that Sept 11 has altered the geopolitical landscape in the region, as it has in many parts of the world, and in many ways it is helping serve what has been defined as US interests — and what several South-east Asian governments see as theirs as well.

In the region, the United States and the six original members of t Asean — Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand — still view their regional security from the old prism that sees China as suspect.

These concerns have been raised in the Rand Study, which cited China's heavy military spending in 2000 and its incursions in the Spratly Islands.

The study suggests a rapid deployment strategy that would entail "expanding cooperation with the Philippines to support Taiwan if need be" — a controversial strategy sure to upset activists and legal experts in Manila.

To be fair, it is not just the hawks in the Bush administration who favour the United States resuming what critics call its ''super cop'' role in South-east Asia, made easier today by the so-called 'war against terrorism'.

"The geopolitical reality is that we have to worry about China," said former Philippine Foreign Secretary Roberto Romulo.

"Why should we be afraid of China?'' he asked. ''The reality is that they have hegemonic tendencies. The whole South-east Asia is paranoid about China. We need a security relationship with the Americans.'' Such views have also been echoed by Singapore.

Romulo underscored what he called the "benefits" of reviving Philippine-American ties, hurt by the US pullout of its strategic bases in the country a decade ago. "We're now back on the radar screen," he said.

War exercises

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was the first Asean head of state to offer the use of Philippine air space after the Sept 11 attacks.

She was rewarded with an extensive package of military aid and economic assistance when she visited Washington in November. "It's US$4.6 billion and still counting," Arroyo proudly declared, something that the Philippine military, starved of funds and equipment since the bases' pullout, welcomed.

Three months later, 660 American troops joined Filipino soldiers in 'war exercises in Mindanao, southern Philippines. They were sent to Basilan island, where a band of Muslim extremists belonging to the Abu Sayyaf group, estimated at but 100 members.

"Our relationship with the United States has never been better and that's where it should be," said Romulo. "Above the surface we will have the strongest link with China, but under the surface we're the strongestally of the United States.''

The United States has repeatedly stated that it has no interest in reviving its bases in the Philippines, but makes no bones about wanting to have access without bases. In recent years, it has reached agreements with the Philippines and its neighbours about port calls and exercises.

How this will play itself out, with more governments cooperating in the US 'war against terrorism', remains to be seen.

But already, Filipino nationalists are warning that the US presence in Zamboanga city in Mindanao, where heavy concrete landing pads for Chinook helicopters and barracks at Edwin Andrews Air Base have been constructed, show signs of becoming a permanent fixture.

They warn that the country's 1987 Constitution forbids this, but recently, the Visiting Forces Agreement Commission said this ban was not absolute.

The charter allows the permanent station of foreign troops in the country as long as Congress concurs with it and a bilateral treaty covers the arrangement, said Jaime Yambao, VFA commission director.

Diplomats here say that while the other Asean states may not be as vocal as the Philippines and Singapore in supporting the United States after Sept 11, there is, however, strong agreement that its security relations with the US need to be strengthened and expanded.

Asean not only came out with a collective statement condemning the attacks, it has been cooperating with the Americans in hunting down suspected al-Qaeda cells in the region. Next month, Asean foreign ministers will meet in Malaysia to draft concrete plans to combat 'transnational crimes on terrorism'.

But Malaysia and Indonesia have had to temper their expressions of support for the US 'war on terrorism', given the local Muslim constituencies who are wary of the genuine aims of the campaign.

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad condemned the September attacks, but opposed the subsequent US war on Afghanistan.

Still, as one diplomat here said, many South-east Asian governments feel more comfortable with a clear US presence in the region these days. "They welcome it and they welcome an expanded US presence in Asia. Malaysia, on its own, has been trying to be close to the US."

As Arroyo herself stated: ''All the Asean countries are in this fight against terrorism. . . .Of course, each one gives its contribution in accordance with its own specific constraints at home.'' (IPS)