PAS will begin its four-day annual general meeting or muktamar in Kota Bharu, Kelantan tomorrow amid speculation of an early general election. Thus the Muslim-based party is expected to use the event to reflect on its performance since the 1999 general election.

In 1999, the party exploited the Anwar Ibrahim issue to the hilt, capturing Terengganu state in addition to retaining its bastion, Kelantan.

PAS had also relied heavily on its Barisan Alternatif ally, Keadilan, to deliver seats in the Malay majority states of Kedah, Perlis, Selangor and Pahang.

Earlier, in the 1990 general election, PAS had also relied similarly in the now defunct Semangat 46 — led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah — to wrest Kelantan from BN.

The question now is whether Keadilan is still in a position to assist PAS to at least retain the seats won in the previous election.

Or will we witness a different political scenario in the coming polls?

Uphill task

PAS leaders are said to be uneasy as their preliminary assessment has indicated that it will be tough this time around.

With Umno embarking on an all-out effort to win back Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS leaders are aware that they must re-double their efforts in the two states to retain them.

Though the present political scenario has suggested that support for PAS is still intact, Umno seems to have recovered lost ground.

This could be due to a waning in the support for Keadilan as the Anwar Ibrahim issue peters out in the national political consciousness.

Umno leaders in Kelantan and Terengganu seem to have put the worst behind them. Since their electoral setback in 1999, where they lost two states and 20 parliamentary seats, they have taken a big step forward merely by owning up to their mistake.

Such candour was absent before the 1999 election and had caused many of their disgruntled supporters to switch to PAS.

Indeed Umno is so confident of a victory in Terengganu that it is already discussing what it will do after it recaptures the state.

In fact, opposition leaders are already showing signs of anxiety at the results of five by-elections held since the 1999 general election, which saw four captured by the ruling party.

Things came into sharper focus after the BN candidate in last March's by-election in Ketari, Pahang won with a surprisingly huge 2,500-vote majority compared to a mere 231 in the 1999 polls.

It came two months after another impressive victory by BN in the Indera Kayangan by-election in Perlis. The MCA candidate, retired teacher Oui Ah Lan, defeated Keadilan's Khoo Yang Chong by an overwhelming majority.

There is no doubt that Umno's rising influence is causing discomfort in the opposition. Political analysts are now questioning their future, and their ability to mount a formidable front to oppose the ruling party in the coming general election.

The outcome of the previous five by-elections showed that PAS, in particular, may have to re-calculate their election strategy, even in their 'traditional' constituencies.

Major difference

In addition, there is a major difference between PAS and Keadilan who are both members of Barisan Alternatif (BA).

While PAS aims to establish an Islamic state, Keadilan continues to project its 'secular state' stand but regards Islam as the official religion of Malaysia, as stated in the Federal Constitution.

And in every by-election, Keadilan and Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) — another BA member — opted to distance themselves from PAS' emphasis on the Islamic state.

Chinese-based DAP pulled out of the BA last September also because of PAS' theocratic goal.

The Indera Kayangan by-election saw Keadilan moving away from its dependence on PAS' in support of several key areas.

This is probably due to the fact that in constituencies with a heavy Chinsese voter presence, an open association with PAS would not go down well with the non-Muslims.

Keadilan president Dr Wan Azizah Ismail is also under pressure from factional strive in the party. She is aware that her party needs to strike a balance among its multiracial support base.

Azizah, too, seems to understand that there is more at stake than just a good rating in the opinion polls.

PAS' controversies

Just as any ruling party, the PAS-led governments in Kelantan and Terengganu also had its share of controversies which the BN will naturally highlight.

In Kelantan, PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat (photo) courted problems when he maintained that the use of the term barua (a derogatory term in Bahasa Melayu) was permissible in Islam.

And Nik Aziz, who is also Kelantan mentri besar, had declared that he did not regret using the word to describe a state Umno leader.

However, PAS leaders maintain that Nik Aziz's personal integrity remains intact despite his many goofs.

But a string of other controversies is costing the party valuable support. Last month, Kelantan state legislative assembly Speaker Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah was found guilty by the state's Syariah Court for marrying a third wife without permission from the state's religious affairs department.

Rahim, who is also PAS state assemblyperson for Tanjung Mas, was sentenced to three days' jail and fined RM1800. He is appealing against the decision.

The PAS leadership has maintained that Rahim's case would not affect the party, saying that he (Rahim) alone was responsible. But still, observers believe that the impact may be too much for that kind of compromise to take hold.

Since the last election, the Kelantan and Terengganu governments have pushed through many controversial decisions, including a proposed dress code for tourists in Terengganu. An equally important issue for the muktamar is the repeated postponement of the tabling of the Hudud bill in the Terengganu state assembly.

Image is criticial

Many ordinary folks are said to be shaken by the uncertainties of Terengganu Mentri Besar Abdul Hadi Awang's (photo) leadership. There is talk that he had promised many changes but could not deliver. This has given the public the impression that the PAS government has no firm agenda beyond mere rhetoric.

Such negative talk about PAS during an election will, no doubt, be to its detriment.

PAS does have a lot of hard work to do to shore up public confidence in its administration of the two states.

In the long term, the leadership also has to sustain the party's momentum while managing the challenges of its relationship with other opposition parties.

PAS leaders must show that the party is not a lost cause at a time when allegations of militancy have surfaced, especially when Nik Aziz's son, Nik Adli, was detained for allegedly being a ringleader of the Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) #&8212 a group which police claimed wanted to topple the government through violent means.

Image is critical to the party at this moment.

Tomorrow: Part II

Nash Rahman is a member of the malaysiakini team.