While PAS slips in an out of controversies, Umno is slowly regaining its footing in both Kelantan and Terengganu, leaving the former to ponder its fate in the next general election.

One political observer said, "If you compare Umno's position in the two states to that of a body, it has recovered from an illness but has yet to regain its full strength."

"Many feel Umno is on the road to recovery. Problems have to be solved. Umno knows all too well that the more they pile up, the more difficult it is to solve them. Definitely, the party needs to tackle them head-on in order to revive its former spirit." added the observer.

However, Umno sounds more confident of recapturing Terengganu rather than scoring a victory in Kelantan.

Despite talk of Umno revitalising in Kelantan, the party does not appear to be very optimistic beyond winning additional seats.

As agreed by many, Kelantan is a unique state. Culturally and politically, the Kelantanese seem to have their own mind-set.

In past elections, the determining factor was not voters residing in the state alone. Kelantanese working in other states also return in droves to cast their ballots.

In 1990, the people decided to oust the Barisan Nasional government in Kelantan and in the two subsequent elections — 1995 and 1999 — they voted to retain the PAS government.

Wider network

In view of this, Umno's strategy to recapture Kelantan must involve a wider network of campaigning that goes beyond the state's borders , encompassing Kelantanese working in other states, especially in the Klang Valley and Johor. And this is a time consuming exercise.

This is the strength which allowed PAS to defeat BN in three consecutive general election. Add this to PAS leaders' oratory skills in Islamic affairs [making them natural crowd-pullers] and you will get quite a formidable political force.

To counter this image, Umno has been using the state-owned TV station, RTM to belittle PAS leaders, by highlighting their so-called "unbecoming behaviour" as ulamas (Islamic scholars).

RTM has repeatedly shown a video clip of PAS spiritual leader and Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Amat using a derogatory Bahasa Melayu word, barua , during one of his talks.

The station has also aired a clip which shows PAS deputy president and Terengganu Menteri besar Abdul Hadi Awang labelling Umno members as 'infidels'.

For weeks, a clip on the Memali incident — where PAS leader Ibrahim Libya and 17 others, including four policemen were killed in a clash — was also shown in order to paint PAS as a party with extremist tendencies.

But these attempts to discredit PAS leaders failed to reap much success for BN as far as Kelantan was concerned, though some BN leaders claim otherwise. But its effects were quite telling in Terengganu.

Voters in Terengganu seem to disapprove the use of derogatory words. Many felt that Islam does not encourage such behaviour, especially coming from a respected religious teacher like Nik Aziz.

Wary of such sentiments, Hadi has wisely chosen to distance himself from commenting on the matter. Instead, he preferred to talk about the implementation of the Hudud law in Terengganu.

The withdrawal of oil royalty to Terengganu, after PAS wrested the state from BN in 1999, has badly affected the state coffers.

In order to stay financially afloat, the PAS-led government has instructed federal-aided state institutions, to hand over grants received to the state government.

The oil royalty is instead re-channeled as ' Wang Ehsan ' through the federal agencies in the state as well as through Umno, which has also been given the prerogative to distribute them to deserving parties.

Big money

With such 'big money' in hand, Umno officials have scrambled to find activities for their candidates that will allow them to interact with the electorate.

With the current political development, it is crucial for PAS leaders to fully use the muktamar to gather as much feedback as possible from party delegates..

The feedback is vital for the leadership to plan effective strategies to counter Umno's forays in Terengganu and Kelantan.

It is also timely for PAS to reassess its dependency on other opposition parties, especially its Barisan Alternatif ally, Keadilan.

However, this does not mean that Keadilan is not important to PAS. Far from it, in fact!

Keadilan still has the political clout to continue putting Umno in an uncomfortable situation. But still, PAS has to think about alternative ways of retaining and increasing the support of voters in the two states they are ruling.

With talks of Keadilan eyeing Selangor as its front-line state in the coming general election, the distribution of seats among BA component parties may create some internal problems.

Is PAS prepared to compromise on the seat distribution in Selangor, and concentrate on retaining Kelantan and Terengganu? And, would it be a bad precedent for PAS to allow such an arrangement to take place in the first place?

Probably, PAS would also like to study closely the efforts initiated by Keadilan to register BA as a political party before the next general election, in which all BA candidates will be contesting under one common symbol.

Surely, the delegates attending this year's muktamar can expect to be properly briefed on all the latest developments affecting the party and the BA for the next general election is not too far away.

Nash Rahman is a member of the malaysiakini team