It seems that Umno too needs a peace plan similar to that proposed by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to end the leadership crisis in MCA the second-largest Barisan Nasional (BN) component party after Umno.

This is specially so in view of Mahathir's decision to relinquish all party posts in Umno and BN next year and hand it over to his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Though his announcement to retire shocked the nation, it was not that difficult for Mahathir to get everybody to accept Abdullah as his anointed successor.

The most difficult task has to be shouldered by Abdullah to c hoose his deputy from among the three party vice-presidents Najib Abdul Razak, Muhammad Muhd Taib and Muhyiddin Yassin. They are of the same seniority and coincidentally members of the 'Wawasan (Vision) Team' who first won their current posts in the 1993 party election.

This means, it is Abdullah and not Mahathir who actually needs the one-year transition period, to put the party back in order.

There has not been any clear-cut succession system in Umno to enable a smooth leadership succession to take place. This has never been properly addressed by the party, despite the 1987 top leadership challenge by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, which saw Mahathir almost losing the post.

Further, Mahathir's previous, three deputies Musa Hitam, Ghafar Baba and Anwar Ibrahim all failed to make it to the top. Indeed, the party cannot afford more surprises in future.

Mahathir's biggest mistake

Mahathir's extraordinary ability to withstand political and economic challenges has earned him high respect from party members, though at the expense of creating a vacuum in the Umno leadership.

However, Mahathir has long realised that the day would come for him to pass the 'baton' to his deputy. And he did exactly that last Saturday during his closing speech at the Umno general assembly at Putra World Trade Centre (PWTC) in Kuala Lumpur.

It would probably be well-received if his deputy now were Anwar. For all Mahathir's achievements, many believed that his biggest mistake was to sack Anwar from the government and party posts in 1998. Anwar would have been one of the few leaders who could hold the party together.

But with regard to Abdullah, who assumed the post of party deputy president and deputy prime minister in 2000, he is clearly not ready yet to shoulder such a responsibility.

He needs the assurance that he would get all the support to lead the party and the nation after the post-Mahathir era. After a lengthy Umno supreme council meeting, the three party vice-presidents have publicly declared their support to Mahathir's wish of electing Abdullah as his successor.

The BN presidential council has also given the same endorsement as announced by its secretary-general Mohamad Rahmat.

Good election strategy

A veteran Umno leader, who requested anonymity, said that one 'negative' aspect of Umno's leadership is the tendency for the leader to cling too long to his post. To remain relevant, Umno must do away with this tendency, he said.

"Each leadership should be confined to their own generation. The existing one should prepare to ceremoniously go with the emergence of the new generation within the party. With this arrangement, we can ensure the smooth transition in Umno," he said

On the bright side, he said, Mahathir's quit announcement has restored unity among party members.

"A united Umno means a disaster for Keadilan in the Malay-majority areas where PAS needs extra votes to win. This would lessen the opposition threat, especially from PAS in Kedah, Perlis, Selangor and Pahang, because they won't get sympathy votes from Umno members.

"It could be a good election strategy. In other words, PAS' influence would be confined to Kelantan and Terengganu," he said.

Still, the succession problem is far from over.

Will Abdullah enjoy the same trust from party leaders when he announces his deputy next year, as Mahathir has done now? Many doubt so unless Najib, Muhyiddin and Taib are open to compromise.

But they also have another option: to let the delegates determine who they want to be Abdullah's deputy.

Umno has always been a party full of surprises. That includes Mahathir's announcement last Saturday.