George W Bush's announcement of a "vision" for peace in Palestine has all the trappings of a Shakespearean tragedy.

There is the dark, tragic king, stricken by the spectre of war. There is a villain  there have been attempts at violence, manipulation unfortunately. Money was used, threats were issued".

No matter that the attempts of the ex-King Zahir Shah were successfully subverted. Karzai, a former consultant for the oil giant Unocal, is Washington's point man for facilitating US oil companies in laying their cross-country oil pipeline.

Environment not conducive for election

Bush would like to see a Palestinian election based on the Afghanistan model, with the replacement of Arafat by a Palestinian quisling who will be subservient to US-Israeli interests.

The Palestinian Authority, pre-empting Bush's announcement, had announced elections in January 2003. Perhaps they had hoped that Bush would call for the withdrawal of Israeli forces as a pre-condition. In the absence of a demand for the pullout, the environment is hardly conducive to any form of electioneering.

As Israeli forces entrench themselves in more and more Palestinian cities, Palestinian officials state that they will not be able to conduct elections until Israeli forces withdraw to pre-September 2000 positions. Currently, most cities are under curfew, and movement of citizens has been severely curtailed by Israeli checkpoints. Campaigning and other electioneering activities under the occupation will be impossible.

Geoffrey Aronson, director of the Foundation for Middle East Peace in Washington, believes that electioneering will be an impossible task. "You can't hold free and democratic elections in the middle of a war," says Aronson. "People are confined to their houses 23 hours a day. How could they vote? How could they campaign? This is all pretend."

Voter records destroyed

A large number of possible Palestinian candidates have been arrested during the uprising, including front line leaders like Marwan Barghouti, a Palestinian legislator accused of organising attacks against Israelis, who is being held in Israeli prison without trial.

Voter records need to be updated and computerised — a task virtually impossible since the Israeli forces have destroyed thousands of computers belonging to the Palestine Authority (PA). Only days after Bush's announcement, the Israeli army exploded a ton of explosives in the PA's security offices in Hebron.

There is also the question of allowing Palestinians living in Jerusalem to vote in the elections, following the pattern of the 1996 elections. This time around, Israel claims Jerusalem as its undivided capital, and could disallow residents of the holy city from participating in the election.

Choice of radical leaders

Given the environment of despair and disillusionment resulting from the Israeli occupation, and growing mistrust for the US position, there is a great possibility that Palestinian voters will turn to radical candidates for succour. Dr Nabeel Shaath, Palestinian Minister of Planning, warns of the increasing popularity of the militant Islamic group Hamas, which could win a strong bargaining position in the Parliament.

It is in the vital interests of the radical parties to ensure that a "reformed" PLO — Arafat's organisation — is defeated. Writing in Al-Ahram , Graham Usher suggests that "Hamas, together with Al-Aqsa and Islamic Jihad, is keenly aware that Bush's vision of a Palestinian state is predicated on it becoming so 'reformed' as to be able to fight national and Islamist movements like themselves".

In a show of strength, Hamas' leader, Sheik Yassin — officially under house arrest by the Palestinian authority — flouted his imprisonment by participating in an anti-US march in the Gaza strip, with six armed bodyguards at his side.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is also amongst those who have warned that Bush's call for Palestinian elections could backfire: "You could find yourself in a situation that the radicals are the ones that get elected."

Warned of consequences

How, one wonders, would the US and Israel handle a landslide victory for Hamas supported candidates, as a response to Bush's call for "new Palestinian leadershipuncompromised by terror"?

What if history is to repeat itself and Arafat is re-elected? Israeli political columnist Danny Rubinstein believes that this is the most probable outcome. "Arafat will be re-elected, no doubt about it. That is the reality that we have to deal with."

The New York Times reports that at the G8 summit, "officials of nations, including Russia, warned that the threats could backfire and result in a resounding electoral mandate for Arafat".

How will Bush deal with this reality if, or rather, when it happens? The official US line is: "We respect democratic processes, but there are consequences."

Bush has an answer for what the consequences will be. He announced that if the Palestinians failed to make the changes he has demanded, the US will cut off all aid to them.

Other consequences could be greater support for Israeli incursions, supported with more US military aid.

Will the Israelis be given a green light to do Bush's bidding by "creative" means? Political assassinations have long been a part of Israel's Palestinian policy, and Arafat's besieged headquarters could well be the site for an explosion similar to the one in the Hebron security compound.

Recipe for disaster

The absence of a balanced US policy in the Middle East has resulted in greater resentment amongst the Palestinians, the Arabs and the Muslim world. This resentment could manifest itself in more suicide bombings in Israel, and more sympathisers for 'Al-Qaeda' networks around the world. More terrorist threats at home.

Greater security and defence spending at a time when the economy continues to slump, corporate giants continue to tumble, and unemployment increases unabated. This could lead to a perpetuation spiral of violence — a recipe for disaster for all.

"The height of the expectations from this speech will be comparable to the depths to which the region will plunge," predicts foreign minister, Shimon Peres in a report by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth . "A bloodbath can be expected."

One would have liked to conclude a piece about a US President's "vision for peace" with an analogy to Shakespeare's A Daniel come to judgment .

Unfortunately, in the absence of even a pretense of justice in the speech, one is forced to concur with Mary McGrory who points out that "[Bush] validated the wisdom of his original impulse to have nothing to do with the Middle East. His speech demonstrated he has nothing to contribute."

Or as Shakespeare says of Lear, "a zero without a figure". — YellowTimes.org

YellowTimes.org

columnist (United States) YUSUF AGHA is a historian who also dabbles in Information Technology. He reads extensively and has an interest in the visual and performing arts. He has resided in the US for over two decades, loves its people and the land, but is still trying to figure out whom the government represents.