An explosion of violence in Thailand's south over the past seven months, including the murder of 17 policemen and a spate of bombings, has turned the spotlight on the region's troubled Muslim community.

Not a single arrest has been made over the 37 incidents, including train bombings, weapons depot raids and attacks on government offices, that have rocked the five Muslim-majority provinces bordering Malaysia.

Although the finger of suspicion has been pointed at everyone from al-Qaeda-linked Islamic separatists to civil servants, the police and the military, there is no agreement on which group is responsible.

Alarmed and confounded by the unrest, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's government has deployed 1,000 extra police to the region, and vowed to use "guerrilla warfare tactics" against the perpetrators.

"We can't just sit still. We have to hit them back. If we can die, so can they," tough-talking Interior Minister Purachai Piemsomboon said last week.

On wanted list

Over the weekend, 20 Muslim men were named on a wanted list and rewards offered for information leading to their arrest.

Although Islamic militant groups were the first to fall under suspicion, most analysts believe Thailand's long-running Muslim insurgency is now virtually defunct and incapable of mounting such a campaign.

Instead, the theories focus on a turf war over the huge profits from illicit activities that flourish in the border region, including smuggling of weapons destined for Asian rebel armies in Aceh and Sri Lanka.

"There is conflict over illegal businesses in the south like drugs, gambling, prostitution and illegal weapons," said Perayot Rahimmula, political science lecturer at the Pattani campus of Songkhla University in the south.

"Some policemen are associated with these businesses which researchers say are worth between 20 billion and 50 billion baht (482 million and 1.2 billion dollars) a year."

The situation worsened in May when the government disbanded two key coordinating bodies, the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre and the Civilian-Police-Military Command 43, and put police in charge.

Work of 'colour people'

A journalist in Yala, one of the five affected provinces along with Pattani, Narathiwat, Satun and Songkhla, said many were convinced there would be no peace until the power balance was restored.

"It's clear that is the work of the colour people," he said, using an expression that refers to the uniforms of the two groups. "It stems from a conflict between them as the police are now in control."

"I think that it will only end when the police and military are ordered to jointly supervise the area again," said the journalist, who declined to be identified.

Meanwhile, government officials are living in fear and teachers are demanding police escorts as they travel to and from school. One teacher has already been killed, and two police were shot dead while on escort duty.

The mood of lawlessness has also been fuelled by severe social problems facing Thai Muslims. In a country dominated by Buddhists, they make up some five percent of the population.

"Today, a whole host of fragmented but intense conflicts are contributing to an explosive mix of social, economic and political problems that are tearing apart the South," the Bangkok Post said in an editorial Friday.

Ignorance of officials

"Unemployment, drugs and weakened social mores are all undermining the traditional Muslim community. And the mood is certainly not helped by the ignorance of officials about Islamic culture."

Thailand's southern provinces have long been distinct from other sections of the country and did not integrate into Siam, the former name of Thailand, until the beginning of the 20th century.

But in the past decade, initiatives to give Muslims a voice in parliament — there have been three Muslim cabinet ministers since then — have taken the heat out of the secessionist movement.

Although a low-grade militant rebellion continues, the groups responsible are hopelessly fractured and derided as nothing more than bandits using Islam as a front.

But Perayot warns that unless the government takes action to reverse the south's social ills, the ideals they espouse could enjoy a revival via methods such as Internet propaganda aimed at bright Muslim youngsters.

Autonomous territory

"These websites must not be ignored. They will never again use pistols to fight the government, but they will use their brains to try to make southern Thailand an autonomous territory," he said.

Newspaper editorials have also urged the government to begin consulting with an increasingly resentful Muslim population.

"Instead of cowering in fear and relying on wishful thinking that the terrorism will die a natural death if we ignore it long enough, the public and government must realise that a policy of appeasement is a dangerous gamble," the Nation newspaper said.

"An integrated approach to promote social and economic development to bring prosperity to the region must be carried out along with serious and sustained efforts to restore peace and order." — AFP