The recently concluded Pendang parliamentary and Anak Bukit state by-elections brought cheers and disappointment to both parties  in an 85-percent Muslim constituency, 60 percent is needed to win; in an 80 percent Muslim electorate, 62 percent of their vote is the minimal for a win; in a 75 percent Muslim constituency, it's 69 percent to win; and in a 70 percent Muslim electoral, it's 75 percent.

The same scenario will apply to DAP if is deprived of Muslim votes. Keadilan and PRM will stand a better chance in constituencies where Muslim voters are 70 percent and below or where Chinese voters are below 70 percent. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that there is no internal strife or power struggle in the opponent's camp or the candidate's personality is not a selling point. Those are exceptions and it has happened in the Kajang state constituency in 1999 where the MCA candidate was sabotaged by his party rival and thus victory was handed to PAS on a silver platter.

In recent years, PAS has attracted many professionals into its fold. It is therefore not surprising that it opted for two professionals instead of the ulama (religious scholars) to defend its forts in Kedah. Umno cannot afford to underestimate the appeal of these professionals to the younger voters as the Malaysian voters are becoming more and more educated.

The Election Commission said there were 2.1 million Malaysians eligible to register as voters. The influx of these new voters may make many constituencies more dicey, particularly in the urban and semi-urban areas.

DAP on the other hand is swimming in a limited pool of water. Internal squabbles and other problems have sapped its strength and reduced it to winning only 10 parliamentary seats in the 1999 general election.

It also lost the prestigious position of Leader of the Opposition in the House of Representatives (Dewan Rakyat). Its ambition of capturing the Penang state government remains a distant dream, even more now as it has severed itself from the opposition front, Barisan Alternatif.

Return to BA

There is also the danger of more Chinese Malaysian professionals joining Keadilan and they will aspire to contest in the traditionally DAP seats.

A three-way contest between BN (MCA, Gerakan or MIC), DAP, and Keadilan will be very unfavourable to DAP and most favourable to BN.

Thus, it is in DAP's interest to return to the opposition front or at least strike some electoral understanding with the component parties.

There were only 22 Chinese-majority parliamentary constituencies in 1999. Only nine seats had more than 70 percent Chinese Malaysian voters.

Without the support of Malay votes, DAP may be pinned into a tight corner. If Keadilan were to field its young Chinese Malaysian professionals in these constituencies and those having less than 70 percent Chinese and Indian Malaysian voters, it will be very tough for DAP to defeat them as well as the MCA, Gerakan or MIC candidates.

In the forthcoming redrawing of electoral boundaries, the Election Commission may create more multi-ethnic constituencies to boost multi-racial harmony. If that happens, DAP may have problems of finding 'good' seats.

Within the opposition, only PAS has a solid machinery at the grassroots to match BN. This was amply demonstrated in Pendang and Anak Bukit.

But the party may become increasingly isolated from the non-Muslims. This will be an unhealthy development in Malaysian politics if a major opposition party derives support from one religious or ethnic group only.

DAP, PRM and Keadilan still have a long way to catch up in this area. There is little indication that these parties are making any headway.

Keadilan is still a young party but DAP and PRM are old salts. The impending merger of Keadilan and PRM will blend youth and idealism with experience.

As it is, the BN is standing on pretty strong grounds should the general election be called within the next 16 months unless something dramatic upsets the current status quo.

KC HO holds a BA, MA (Hons) in politics and LLB (Hons). He was a journalist and secretary-general of the National Union of Journalists. He was also a US Congressional Fellow. Feedback can be directed to kc_ho@mail.com