Making vague but surprising, frightening or shocking political statements in the mass media seems to have become a fashion or pastime for some retired military men of rank in Malaysia.

On Feb 3 this year, retired army lieutenant-general, Zaini Mohamad Said was quoted by a Malay-language daily Mingguan Malaysia as warning that if the issue of water supply between Malaysia and Singapore is not resolved properly, it may ignite a military conflict.

Zaini also opined that the close ties between the people of the two Asean-member countries were insufficient to prevent a military conflict.

However, he said: "(A) military conflict must be avoided because it will only hurt both countries".

The public statement, although made by a retired army officer, caused grave concern not only in Singapore, but in the international community as well.

On Sunday, the former admiral of the Royal Malaysian Navy, Abu Bakar Jamal told another Malay-language newspaper Berita Minggu about an attempt to unseat the government.

He alleged that in 1999, groups or individuals claiming to be supporters of the reformasi movement sent letters and email to him and other military leaders, attempting to obtain the support of the armed forces to "overthrow the government".

Furnish evidence

On the same day, Keadilan vice-president Azmin Ali was quoted by the national news agency, Bernama as denying that opposition parties, particularly Keadilan, had asked military leaders "to topple the government".

Azmin was also quoted as saying that Keadilan upholds democratic principles and rejects the use of any form of violence in its political struggle, and any individual who alleges that the party is involved in such activities must furnish evidence.

It is interesting to observe that when asked the names of the senders of the alleged letters and email, Abu Bakar said there were no names stated, but at the same time, he claimed they were from the 'reformasi' group.

'Reformasi' is the name attributed broadly to the supporters of jailed former deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim.

Defence Minister Najib Tun Razak was also quoted by Bernama as expressing his "confidence" that members of the armed forces were supportive of the government, and that "the majority of the armed forces supported Barisan Nasional (BN)".

In political science and the Federal Constitution, 'government' and 'political party' are two different concepts.

Malaysia follows the Western model of modern civilian-military relationship since achieving independence in 1957.

Under constitutional and legal arrangements, the armed forces strictly follow and obey professional orders relating to defence, security and military affairs from the elected and civilian government which, in principle, could be constituted by any political party or a coalition of parties that won a simple majority in parliament.

Generally, in peacetime and on non-operational matters relating to defence, security and military affairs, the defence minister, as a member of the cabinet, is the spokesperson.

Military affairs of the army, air force and navy, including organisations, personnel and discipline, are governed in details by legislation enacted by Parliament such as the Armed Forces Act 1972 (Act 77).

Under the Penal Code, armed rebellions by civilians or military personnel, or mutiny by any individuals or groups of individuals in the armed forces are criminal offences. Under the controversial Printing Presses and Publications Act, spreading "false" and "alarming" news are also criminal offences.

Voting pattern

However, as citizens of the country, personnel serving in the armed forces are constitutionally entitled to cast technically secret votes in elections, and to freely choose candidates from either the ruling or opposition parties.

Before the 1999 general election, the majority of the members of the Malay-predominated armed forces was believed to be supportive of BN (as a coalition of political parties) in elections, but the voting behaviour and trend of the personnel and supporting civilian staff (as citizens of Malaysia) have been subject to revived speculation since the general election.

While voting is secret and there are no official or authoritative statistics to indicate the exact extent of the political support of the members of armed forces and supporting civilian staff (as citizens of Malaysia) for BN, observers have pointed to some vague but still interesting signs of changed voting behaviour and trend in constituencies where votes of the members of the armed forces or supporting civilian staff form a noticeable or significant portion.

In the parliamentary constituency of Lumut (Perak, N 71) where a leading and vast naval base is located, the opposition candidate from Keadilan, Zamanhuri Samsudin, obtained 20,056 votes in the 1999 general election, only to be narrowly defeated by the BN candidate, Kong Cho Ha, by a margin of 605 votes.

The ethnic makeup of the Lumut parliamentary constituency in1999 was 41.91 percent Malays, Chinese (46.63%), Indian (10.91%) and others (0.55%)

In the previous general election, BN candidate, Yap Yit Thong, won the seat with a huge majority of 12,543 votes.

In Kuantan (Pahang, N 78) where a Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) base is maintained, Keadilan's women chief, Fuziah Salleh polled 21,136 votes, while the victor Umno secretary-general Khalil Yaacob obtained 28,479 votes in the 1999 general elections.

The difference was 7,361 votes. However, in the previous 1995 general election, the BN candidate for the seat, Fauzi Abdul Rahman, defeated the opposition with a huge majority of 23,096 votes.

The ethnic makeup of the Kuantan parliamentary constituency in 1999 was Malays (54.50%), Chinese (38.67%), Indians (6.65%) and others (0.18%).

Without giving any specific and factual details in strict observance to the established legal rule of evidence regarding the alleged attempt of instigating a military coup d'etat , Abdul Bakar seems to be actually worried about the voting trend, pattern and behaviour of Malaysian citizens who also serve in the armed forces and their supporting facilities, and their family members.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia . Wong is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.