On the surface, the ruling Barisan Nasional is set to clinch a big win in the Gaya parliamentary by-election on Oct 12 expectedly a bigger one that in 1999 with the re-entry of former chief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan's Parti Bersatu Sabah(PBS).

Its chosen representative 54-year-old Liew Teck Chan is not only a well-known and popular grassroots leader among the constituents but also comes from one of the home-grown parties of disqualified member of parliament Yong Teck Lee-led Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP).

Liew is closely identified with Yong, a former two-year chief minister under a rotation system engineered by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to bring peace within an uneasy alliance in Sabah politics. He is the man behind Yong in his famous mobile clinic offering a wide range of services, including medical, dental and legal, to the Gaya constituents.

Even Sabah Chief Minister Chong Kah Kiat has to concede that under the present situation there couldn't be a better candidate than Liew to represent the BN.

In fact, there's a little secret about the distance between Chong and Yong. "They probably hate each other's guts," said one Sabah political analyst. "Anyone but Yong will please him and many others among the Sabah BN leadership."

So, more by accident than by design, Yong is out of the way, temporarily that is. This has pleased several other state BN leaders, especially Pairin and his own crowd who have blamed Yong for the PBS government's downfall with the defections of several party leaders to the BN side.

Full backing from PBS

Chong, himself a close friend of Pairin, played a big role in PBS' return to the fold. They have since been seen quite regularly together in public. Although Yong himself had certain reservations, the overwhelming desire of the Barisan Nasional, in particular top federal BN leadership, to see PBS back in the fold could not stop the party's re-admission.

Now Pairin has to show PBS not only as a honest and sincere component of the BN by ensuring a big win for the BN-SAPP candidate but also to ensure that those who voted PBS when it was in the opposition continue to support PBS and BN.

Gaya is a large constituency with a total land area of 306 sq km larger than the island of Penang and inspite of a somewhat low turnout, Yong polled 15,315 votes in the 1999 general election, winning by a 4117-vote margin from his nearest rival PBS' Johnny Goh.

The question now is how much of the votes that went to Goh, who is also the BN-PBS assemblyperson for Inanam (which is part of Gaya) would still go to PBS and in turn to BN.

Given that SAPP leader's own votes would remain intact, how would most of the rest of voters cast their votes? Would they grant all to PBS? Or would they split that between PBS (BN), DAP and Parti Keadilan Nasional?

Spare no efforts

There's little doubt that because his own close confidante and fellow party leader is in the running, Yong would spare no efforts to ensure victory for his man and party.

Pairin, it is said, would want everyone who voted PBS the last time round to do the same for PBS in BN. Inspite of PBS changing shirt by re-joining BN, Pairin still commands considerable respect and support from the Kadazandusun community in Sabah. "Pairin is PBS and PBS is Pairin," a senior Sabah journalist told malaysiakini . 'He is the huguan siou or paramount chief of the Kadazandusun community.'

If he could deliver half or two thirds of the votes that Goh obtained that could bring the BN candidate's total votes received to at least 20,000 out of a possible 30,000 votes cast representing about 60 per cent of the 49,427-strong electorate.

Therefore, the PBS factor is seen as crucial for a larger BN win.

No united stand

The opposition is seen as not doing much justice to its own cause by not being able to agree to adopt a united stand. According to most observers of the local political scene, the DAP candidate Kiew King Cheu, 50, would appear to be the stronger among the two opposition candidates.

Firstly, the DAP has been around longer than any other opposition parties in Sabah. At one time, the DAP had as many as four members of parliament covering the main towns, including Sandakan and Tawau.

Like in neighbouring Sarawak, the DAP is nearly always seen as the only credible opposition party, partly because of its historical role in national politics and partly because it is a party that is never thought likely to cross over.

The Keadilan candidate is another Liew or better known within legal circles as Christina Liew, also 50, who made an unsuccessful attempt at the last Likas by-election.

Although not home-grown, DAP has been selective in its choices of candidates and has not only limited its participation in constituencies where it considers its chances of winning are good.

Keadilan is seen more as an outsider and locals who stand on its ticket are often seen more as ex-deputy premier sacked Anwar Ibrahim's sympathisers, especially after the treatment he received at the hands of his jailors in the past, than any of his policies.

Definite disadvantage

"It's a convenient platform to park oneself in when positioning oneself between BN and DAP or PAS," another veteran Sabah journalist commented.

This perception is a definite disadvantage for Keadilan, according to a local political science lecturer.

Reflecting the growing trend within Malaysia, many candidates appear to be putting themselves forward more as social workers looking more after the little needs of constituents like clogged drains and over-grown lallang rather than as law-makers in parliament.

But personalities are always dominant in local politics, and Gaya is no exception. A minus point in a ruling party candidate is often disregarded against the larger perception of the BN as representing progress and stability.

"So people tend to become reluctant to vote for change which suits the BN leadership extremely well," the lecturer said.

Yong who has also been disqualified from his state seat of Likas after a court decision finding him guilty of committing election offences in the last elections is an example of a strong personality on the ground. Even after serving as chief minister for a two-year term and completely out of the cabinet, he still retained his influence at the grass-roots level.

There are, of course, local issues on the ground and one, according to several quarters, are some unfilled promises made by the state government to the constituents. The opposition will capitalise on this.

But even if there is a swing away from the BN t will not be enough to cause an upset. "One can forget Keadilan. This by-election is seen as more between BN and DAP.'

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini correspondent based in Kuching, Sarawak.