It is now public and unmistakable: an Umno-Gerakan entente cordiale is openly demanding MCA to sack its two Penang state assembly representatives who refused to vote against an opposition-sponsored motion to shelve the controversial Penang Outer Ring Road (Porr) project which was also opposed by a significant number of Penang residents.

On Nov 29, the Umno supreme council reached a decision to ask its second largest ally in the National Front coalition to expel Lim Boo Chang and Tan Cheng Liang, the MCA duo representing the Penang state constituencies of Datuk Keramat and Jawi respectively. The public demand on MCA was published in the official media of all languages.

Earlier, Gerakan president Dr Lim Keng Yaik repeatedly voiced similar demand, especially in the pro-Umno media like the New Straits Times and Utusan Malaysia . However, opposition to his demand has been widespread in the pro-MCA and MCA-friendly newspapers, like The Star , Nanyang Siang Pau, China Press and Sin Chew Daily . Gerakan is not known to have owned or controlled any official media in Malaysia.

The decision of Umno supreme council seems to have strengthened the position of Gerakan and its president.

United on issue

However, MCA also seems to be 'united' on the issue at the moment. According to Nov 25 reports in Sin Chew Daily and Nanyang Siang Pau , a MCA vice president, Chua Jui Meng was quoted as attacking Keng Yaik for "publicly demanding" MCA to expel the controversial duo.

Chua, the health minister and a prominent MCA Team B leader who is known for his ambition to replace Dr Ling Liong Sik to become the next party president, reportedly said that the case should first be referred back to MCA's "internal meetings for discussion" and Lim and Tan "should also be given an opportunity to explain".

In direct response to the Umno-Gerakan's demand, MCA secretary-general Ting Chew Peh was quoted by Nanyang Siang Pau on Nov 30 as saying that how to "deal with" Lim and Tan is to be decided by MCA, and that "outsiders" should not be "busybodies". The MCA member of parliament for Gopeng in Perak was also quoted as saying that in a "democratic" country and society, any organisations or units have the right to express their opinions on particular issues.

Ting, a former sociology academic with the National University of Malaysia (UKM) and ex- Minister of Housing and Local Government, is a staunch supporter of Team A led by Liong Sik.

From a 'technical' perspective, Ting is right to a certain extent. If expulsion of the duo is the only option, then only MCA can do it, not the National Front, Umno or Gerakan because Lim and Tan are members of MCA, not Umno or Gerakan. Moreover, the National Front, as a coalition of parties, is not known to accept direct members. Surely, no organisation can sack non-members.

Technically, the National Front can only expel the entire MCA from the coalition, but it cannot sack Lim and Tan from MCA.

Technically wrong

Indeed, leaders of Umno and Gerakan, including Umno deputy president Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Keng Yaik, who called on the National Front to sack Lim and Tan last week were technically wrong. The lastest Umno decision to call on MCA to expel them can thus be seen as a quiet rectification of that rather unintelligent demand made earlier.

However, for MCA leaders and supporters to defend the party against the "external interference" of "outsiders" and "busybodies" with 'brave' words is one thing, but making an actionable decision on the duo that can serve the maximum self-interests of the party is another.

The range of options of MCA in making a decision on the duo is certainly limited by the inability or unwillingness of its top and middle-ranking leaders to leave the Umno-dominated National Front and government to become an independent or opposition party. This alone defines the fundamental relationship between MCA on one hand, and Umno and Gerakan on the other.

Under this constraint, it cannot take no action against Lim and Tan because taking no action would mean the entire MCA has decided to officially defy Umno and Gerakan which could then mobilise the support of other component parties to effect an expulsion of MCA from the National Front.

However, it would be political suicidal for MCA to sack Lim and Tan, especially after Umno and Gerakan have made public demand in the media. MCA cannot be seen to be acting under the threat of Umno and Gerakan. Many MCA leaders at all levels as well as its rank and file would be utterly humiliated in public.

Dignity and honour

Even if the top leaders such as Ling and Chua decide to appease Umno and Gerakan at all cost by sacking the duo, many others in the lower ranks of the party would most likely not accept the decision as the collective sense of 'dignity' and 'honour' has been challenged to the core. They may just desert the party en masse organisationally or electorally.

Under these circumstances and considerations, the most likely outcome contemplated by MCA would be for some forms of disciplinary action short of expulsion to be taken, like a suspension of membership for a limited period of time before the next elections, a secret commitment to Umno and Gerakan not to field the duo as candidates in the next general election again, a public reprimand, or the extraction from Lim and Tan of a public apology to the National Front.

One of these milder forms of disciplinary actions could probably satisfy Gerakan's top leaders as they also do not like to be perceived publicly to be behaving like 'little tyrants', 'merciless autocrats', or Umno's 'shameless minions'. After all, the Chinese-predominated Gerakan is competing with MCA on almost the same ground. There is also the overlapping family, clan and alumni connections as well as business interests among the ranks and files of MCA and Gerakan in Penang as well as all over the country.

However, a no-expulsion disciplinary action would almost certainly be interpreted by the Umno supreme council, Gerakan's Keng Yaik, the pro-Umno media and other hardliners in the National Front to be another public challenge to their self-styled 'authority'. After the all-out attacks on MCA in the last few months on this and other issues, it seems that their 'cries for heads to roll' can only be satisfied by expulsion, and no less.

At this point, it may be interesting to observe that there may be a divergence of sentiment between the hardliners in Gerakan like president Keng Yaik on one hand, or the ranks and files of the party on the other, especially in Penang.

Knowing that Gerakan has never been monolithic or "100%" united in all issues, MCA may drive a wedge into the different factions within Gerakan, and to tilt the balance of power to its favour from now on to next January. There is time, and there are channels and networks.

Moreover, unlike Umno, Gerakan has a 'liberal' or 'progressive' image to be treasured and protected in public perception, especially among young and liberal professionals and educated classes. Without that image, the Chinese-predominated Gerakan is no match to MCA's Chinese 'purism' in Penang and even all over the country.

Still hope for duo

MCA may also have observed that the paternalist or head-masterly hardline of the Gerakan president is out of fashion among the more liberal-minded Malaysians, particular youths. Keng Yaik's hardline may backfire on Gerakan itself in the coming general election, especially among the mass of wavering, swinging or uncommitted voters who usually dislike 'tough talks', whether from the ruling or opposition parties.

Seen from these more complicated frameworks, there is still hope for MCA and Lim and Tan to fight on, despite the seemingly threatening public demand of the Umno's supreme council. The only question is whether MCA has the will-power and undivided unit to preserve its own dignity and honour against "outsiders" and "busybodies". The 'threat' delivered by Umno and Gerakan may finally be proven by Liong Sik's MCA to be a mere 'bluff'.

For the Umno-dominated National Front also cannot afford to expel the entire MCA from the coalition before the coming general election. What it can do most is only to replace Liong Sik's MCA with the MCA led by Lim Ah Lek provided Team B is not too weak, or engineer some defections from Team A.

Of course, after the general election, it could technically 'do a Snap' to the entire MCA if Umno is still dominant, and if Team B is still alive and kicking.

Ultimately, politics is the art of the possible, especially if cool survivalists like Liong Sik is prepared to do the unexpected, unorthodox or unconventional in the great and grand tradition of Sun Tzu.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia . Wong is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew , he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.