A number of steps taken by the United States in December are pointers to a military operation against Iraq early in 2003, irrespective of the findings of UN inspectors or opposition from Muslim public opinion.

Interestingly, even within the United States, resistance to any war against Iraq is growing.

Last week, 100 Hollywood celebrities signed an open letter to US President George W Bush opposing any military action. An opinion poll in the Los Angeles Times , released on Dec 17, said that 72 percent of Americans felt their government had thus far failed to provide sufficient evidence regarding Iraq's alleged arsenal of weapons of mass destruction to warrant a war.

Sixty-eight percent felt that the United States should go to war ''only if that military action has the support of the international community''.

Muslim opinion can best be gauged by the opinion poll 'What the World Thinks in 2002', released in early December by the Washington-based Pew Research Institute, which found a majority of people in Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia, Jordan, Bangladesh and Lebanon opposed to a US invasion of Iraq.

Turkey, supposedly the Muslim country closest to the West culturally, politically and geographically had 83 percent opposed to giving facilities for a US strike against neighbouring Iraq. Fifty-four percent felt that the 'war on terror' is actually turning out to be a war against Islam and Muslims.

Iraq neighbours

It is in this context of a polarised public opinion that the United States has mounted a major offensive that includes military, political and media-related moves to cultivate ties with the Muslim world in preparation for a war with Iraq.

Three sets of steps are in motion.

The first step by Washington is its cultivation of relations with key neighbours of Iraq, solidifying the encirclement of that targeted country. It has separately solicited Turkey, Syria, Qatar and Iran.

Syria's President Bashar al Assad's invitation for a state visit to Britain, carried out this week, was a reward for Syrian support in the UN Security Council for sending inspectors to Iraq last month.

The expectation in this case is that Syria, as in the 1991 Gulf War, would set aside its reservations and acquiesce to a US effort to dislodge an old foe and rival.

Tayyab Erdogan, the leader of Turkey's neo-Islamist Justice and Development Party that won the Nov. 3 elections, was invited for an unprecedented audience in Washington.

He holds no government office, but at the White House on Dec 10, Bush told the Turkish Islamist leader: "We're impressed by your leadership and your party's strong victory. We join you side by side in your desire to become a member of the European Union."

Popular opinion

Erdogan did not specifically commit Turkey to allowing US use of its bases for an invasion of Iraq, and he even hinted at a referendum to gauge popular opinion before doing so.

US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld travelled to Qatar on Dec 11, where he signed an agreement for the use and upgrading of a new 1 billion dollar base, with a 15,000-feet runway. The al Udeid air base is a likely choice for operations against Iraq, more so since Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been reluctant to provide facilities for fear of offending their domestic constituencies.

Even Iran, certified by the Bush administration as a member of the so-called 'axis of evil' along with Iraq and North Korea, is being wooed in the context of a war against Iraq.

On Dec 9, two key leaders opposed to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and close to the United States were in Tehran negotiating with the pro-Iran, anti-Saddam Shiite Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).

Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, and Masssoud Barzani, who leads the Kurdistan Democratic Party, invited the SCIRI to attend a conference of the Iraqi opposition in London last week, sponsored by the United States.

London conference

The second major move of the United States has been to beef up the Iraqi opposition. The London conference was the first such representative meeting of Iraqi exiles, most of whom are being promised positions in a post-Saddam Iraq.

US media reports speak of a covert operation by the US Central Intelligence Agency underway in northern Iraq, where CIA operatives are said to spending cash to coopt key tribal chiefs and training an exile army, for which Hungary has allowed use of its territory.

The third aspect of the US strategy is a media drive to win Muslim hearts and minds.

On Dec 12, US Secretary of State Colin Powell announced a 29 million dollar 'Middle East Partnership' initiative aimed at economic empowerment and education of women plus political steps for democracy.

Saying that "too many Middle Easterners are ruled by closed political systems", Powell also gave the somewhat startling statistic that ''only 1 percent of Arabs have access to a computer''.

The US agenda

This is clearly an endeavour to win Arab public opinion by distancing itself from the rulers and talking about the interests of the ruled, most of whom are dissatisfied with the status quo.

This new initiative follows an earlier effort in public relations, where 15 million dollars was spent on television advertising aimed at Muslim public opinion.

But despite this US 'charm offensive', why are Muslim regimes and public opinion still reticent regarding the US-led 'war on terror', particularly Iraq? The reasons are not hard to locate.

Without hard evidence from Washington, Muslim public opinion remains sceptical of the reasons America wants to go to war against Iraq. Many find it inexplicable that how the war on terrorism, which targeted Osama bin Laden, has been transformed into an effort at 'regime change' in Iraq.

Finally, most Muslims feel that Israel, not Iraq, is the main issue in the Middle East, on which the United States has talked of a ''road map for a Palestinian state'' but has not matched these promises with actionthrough policy.

Perhaps as a sop to Muslim opinion, British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced on Dec 16, when Assad was in London, that he was inviting Palestinian leaders to London next month for a meeting on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

It is not an issue of solidarity with Saddam Hussein, whom most of his own people and those in the region revile with good reason. It is about the US agenda its intentions in Iraq and what would follow afterwards in the Muslim world. IPS