A major reason for Pakistan's abiding instability is the absence of 'rules of the game' that could stabilise the relationship among warring political forces and between these political forces and the armed forces.

The latter have ruled Pakistan for almost half the period since independence in 1947. The most recent political transition follows the fourth military regime under General Pervez Musharraf, who has ruled since the October 1999 military coup.

Not surprisingly, transitions from outright military rule to a quasi-civilian elected setup are often tricky, creating new problems without resolving the old ones.

The fundamental contradiction arises because the army, is reluctant to relinquish authority. But as a sop to international and domestic pressure for democracy, it wants legitimacy through an elected, albeit pliant, political government.

When the political government ceases to be pliable to khaki proclivities, it is then that problems arise.

This reason is simple: hybrid systems do not work because authority is divided and the lines of division are murky. Just as the saying goes, ''a woman can't be half pregnant'', similarly there cannot be a ''half democracy'' with traces of authoritarianism casting a shadow over elective authority.

New factors

Although this is the third transition to civilian rule after elections under the military, there are new factors this time around. Three are pertinent.

First, there is more diversity and political pluralism, given the strongest opposition in parliament in Pakistan's history, with two provinces out of the four under the control of the religious right under the six-party United Action Front.

They won almost 20 percent of seats in the 342-member parliament, doubling their share of the popular vote to more than 10 percent. The religious right has made opposition to any military role in politics and the US-led 'war on terror' their major policy plank.

Second, the profile of Pakistan's civil society is a different picture today.

A vibrant and highly educated middle class, a civil society with a 'culture of dissent' through vocal political parties and non-governmental groups, and a strong and critical media, including independent television stations for the first time, strengthen democracy, political awareness and human rights in the country.

The over two million Pakistanis now residing in the Middle East, Europe and North America, with strong family, cultural and economic links with their homeland, are also a major factor in linking the country and its people to the outside world.

Third, the international situation and Pakistan's role have changed qualitatively since Sept 11, and the region where Pakistan is located is today the epicentre in the 'war on terror'.

Take three separate factors and the impact of foreign policy on domestic developments in Pakistan would be apparent:

On Dec 17, the United Nations released a report saying that the al-Qaeda network is regrouping and re-establishing terrorist training camps in eastern Afghanistan, close to Pakistan's border.

This means pressure on Pakistan will increase as Osama bin Laden and former Taliban supremo Mullah Omar are still at large. The provinces bordering eastern Afghanistan, like the North West Frontier Province and Balochistan, are now ruled by the religious right.

Tensions with India

Tensions with India have not abated. On Dec 18, India sentenced three men to death for their alleged role in the terrorist strike on India's parliament on Dec 13, 2001. India blamed it on Pakistan, which denies the charge.

On Dec 12, the Indian ruling Hindu fundamentalist party won the polls in the state of Gujarat, the scene of Hindu-Muslim violence in February.

The election campaign was conducted in a strident anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim manner, surely a bad portent for better relations with Pakistan.

Given the upcoming US military campaign against Iraq, which the religious right opposes, the situation could become tense in case of any US-led war against Iraq.

Already, religious parties have announced on Jan 3 a day of protest and solidarity with the Iraqi people with anti-American demonstrations nationwide.

Among the biggest challenges in Pakistan's latest experiment with a civilian democracy will be civil-military relations.

This is because Musharraf is a serving army chief doubling as president, and because he has incorporated the power to sack parliament and prime minister, and established a new, Turkish-style supra-parliament National Security Council to monitor the elected government.

These steps are opposed not just by the religious parties but by the secular and liberal opposition parties.

'War on terror'

Another challenge could also emerge if the United States decides to carry the 'war on terror' into Pakistani territory from eastern Afghanistan.

This could provoke a popular backlash encouraged and led by a religious right emboldened by its recent election victories and by its power base among Pashtuns residing in the provinces that straddle the border with Afghanistan. <

The Pashtuns, many of whom live in eastern Afghanistan as well, were also the power base of the Taliban. Ideological affinity and ethnic camaraderie could be a volatile mix in a situation of conflict, providing for potent anti-Americanism.

Still, a recent opinion poll of Pakistanis, conducted by the US-based Pew Research Institute, points to faith in their country in the future.

Results released early this month show that 42 percent of Pakistanis, as opposed to 22 percent who thought otherwise, felt their lives in the past five years had gotten worse.

But a significant 46 percent, as opposed to only six percent who were pessimistic, were optimistic about the next five years.

Forty-nine percent were satisfied with the state of the nation, as opposed to 39 percent dissatisfied. Corresponding figures for India were nine percent satisfied and 83 percent dissatisfied and Bangladesh, 20 percent satisfied and 78 percent dissatisfied.

Despite their travails, trials and tribulations, Pakistanis have an intrinsic resilience, optimism and faith in their future and that of their country, which is a healthy basis to begin anew politically in the 21st century and to pursue its latest quest for a stable democracy. IPS