For the leaders of all ranks in Umno, Gerakan and MCA's Team B, as well as the many senior editors or writers in the pro-Umno media who once thought that Dr Mahathir Mohamad is politically closer to them than MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik, it is time for them to think again.

Like it or not, they may have been writing, speaking, thinking and making strategies, for the last three years, in collective illusion or self-delusion with a false sense of power and influence over Mahathir.

The reason is compelling and yet almost self-evident now. According to a Jan 8 Bernama report, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was quoted as saying that Mahathir still wants Ling to continue as the transport minister.

Abdullah reportedly said "PM still wants to retain the services of Dr Ling in the present portfolio, which means that his resignation will only take effect after consultation with PM."

On Jan 9, all the major Chinese-language dailies and The Star reported Mahathir himself as saying effectively that he had rejected Ling's offer to resign as the transport minister.

Same script

Two days ago, Ling reportedly submitted an undated letter of resignation as the transport minister to Mahathir. However, he has never indicated that he would also resign as the MCA president.

Ling displayed the same act or exact script once in May 2000.

The act or script, although not new nor very creative, did immediately create a strong impression or even 'hope' that Mahathir was finally convinced of the soundness of the arguments and opinions of those in Umno, Gerakan, Team B and the pro-Umno media who had been clamouring for Ling's total departure as minister and MCA president.

Now, all of these self-styled 'close' comrades, friends, advisers, strategists or tacticians of Mahathir have been proven wrong, and made to look not very smart.

The reality is now clearly that Ling seems to understand Mahathir's psychological and material needs much better than Umno's Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Gerakan's Dr Lim Keng Yaik, Team B's Lim Ah Lek, or the senior editors and writers of the New Straits Times, Utusan Malaysia and Berita Harian . Mahathir is, for the moment, definitely pro-Ling.

Abdullah snubbed

That Abdullah was assigned by Mahathir to first announce that he (Mahathir) "still wants to retain the services of Dr Ling in the present portfolio" speaks volume of the closeness between Mahathir and Ling.

It is public knowledge that Abdullah was deliberately snubbed by Ling last April when the deputy Umno president and deputy prime minister acted on Mahathir's behalf to negotiate a 'peace plan' to reconcile Team A and Team B of MCA.

Ling, in the presence of Abdullah, demanded to know if the "peace plan" presented to him by Abdullah was 'authentic', and personally attempted to contact Mahathir through long-distance phone call to confirm it. Mahathir was then on a trip to Bahrain, Libya and Morocco.

According to one report, Ling actually planned to fly with his protege Ong Ka Ting to Bahrain immediately to see Mahathir in order "to clarify" certain details of the peace plan.

Earlier in May-June 2001, Abdullah joined Gerakan president Dr Lim KengYaik in publicly 'advising' Ling not to proceed hastily with the controversial take-over of Nanyang Siang Pau and China Press . Late last year, Abdullah, as well as other Umno leaders, also publicly endorsed the call for the two Penang MCA state assembly representative who abstained from voting against a DAP motion to be 'expelled'.

Seen against these historical background, the Mahathir-backed Ling has repeated prevailed over the premier-in-waiting and his supporters in Umno, Gerakan, MCA's Team B, the pro-Umno media as well as Mahathir's personal Chinese confidants like businessmen Lim Kok Weng and Lee Kim Yew who assisted Abdullah in brokering the peace plan between Team A and Team B in MCA.

Why the sacrifice?

Why does Mahathir has to sacrifice so publicly the dignity, credibility and honour of his own party, successor, personal advisers, Gerakan, MCA's Team B and the pro-Umno media just to pacify or appease Ling and his faction in MCA?

One publicly stated reason is that, without Ling's MCA or if it is aggrieved, Umno and the National Front would lose badly in the coming general elections, but that stated reason is only valid on the assumption that Ling's MCA is absolutely indispensable, and it is more influential than Umno, Gerakan and MCA's Team B combined.

If that is Mahathir's assessment of the political situation, it means that Umno and the National Front are still very weak vis--vis the opposition and that the pro-Umno media does not actually represent ground opinions and sentiments.

However, Umno and the pro-Umno media have recently been claiming that voters who supported the opposition in the 1999 general election have been returning to favour the National Front. Only one of these two observations is true.

The assumption may not be valid after all. What happens if Ling's MCA is actually not that influential among the Chinese voters now, especially after the protracted power struggles at all levels of the party? What if the leaders, members and supporters of Umno, Gerakan and Team B are simultaneously aggrieved by the 'arrogance', 'high-handedness', 'perfidy', 'cunning' and 'deceptiveness' of Ling's MCA?

Another critical assumption made by Mahathir and which may not be valid is that Ling's MCA can really be appeased or pacified. What if it thinks that Mahathir, Umno, Gerakan, Team B and the pro-Umno media have merely given back to it what it always justly deserves?

Worse still, what if Ling's MCA seriously and secretly thinks that publicly confronting Umno, Gerakan, Team B and the pro-Umno media is actually rewarding?

Growing bolder

In fact, it can be observed and reasoned that, without any politically punitive actions taken against Ling's MCA after it unilaterally dishonoured the peace plan brokered in the name of Mahathir last year, Ling and his factions have been growing bolder and more confrontational publicly.

Mahathir's appeasement strategy seems to have produced the opposite effect on Ling's MCA. In other words, Ling's MCA thinks that administering snubs against Abdullah and shouting back publicly at Umno, Gerakan, Team B and the pro-Umno media actually pays.

If Ling's MCA continues to reason along this line, and sees a 'weak' and 'pusillanimous' Umno repeatedly 'begging' for its continued support at all cost, it does not augur well for the post-elections and post-Mahathir Umno leadership of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Gerakan, Team B as well as smaller component parties of the National Front, like the People's Progressive Party (PPP).

With his re-strengthened authority as someone Mahathir regards as indispensable in his government, Ling could now conduct a campaign within MCA and in the Chinese community to suppress and silence all dissidents, opponents and critics?

Ling's creeping assertiveness and smiling 'ruthlessness' could also set an example for other non-Umno component parties in the National Front, and even within the faction-ridden Umno itself.

Given the newly derived authority from Mahathir's rejection of his offer to resign, Ling could also lead MCA to pose a menace to Gerakan in Penang which is governed by Gerakan's feeble 'intellectuals' and 'technocrats' whose ideological mumbo-jumbo inspires no one in the streets. Who can control some over-zealous supporters of Ling's MCA in Penang who feel they are now 'justified' and psychologically 'empowered' by Mahathir's appeasement policy to again state its claim on the post of Penang's chief minister?

A really puzzling question is why do Abdullah, Najib, Gerakan, Team B and the pro-Umno media still smilingly defer to Mahathir's appeasement policy vis--vis Ling's MCA even though their interests and honour have clearly been violated?

Given Mahathir's imminent retirement, they could have adopted a 'containment', if not 'roll-back' strategy against Ling's MCA. Do they not believe that Mahathir will really retire and give up all power and influence after October this year?

Why do all the 'rising stars' so willingly or altruistically sacrifice their present and future interests to the dictate of one aging and retiring man?

JAMES WONG WING ON is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily (now Sin Chew Daily ). He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.