The US has threatened to rain 3,000 bombs o­n Iraq in the first 48 hours of launching its attack. Saddam Hussein has said he will fight to the last bullet. Neither side has taken into consideration the most vulnerable target of all: the Iraqi children.

An independent group has just released a report declaring that a grave humanitarian disaster awaits Iraq should war break out. Iraqi children, in particular, are at grave risk of starvation, disease, death and psychological trauma.

The International Study Team, comprising academics, researchers and practitioners, have just returned from an inspection trip to Iraq during which they collected data between Jan 20 and 26.

The team conducted interviews and reviewed existing information o­n the state of children in Baghdad, Basra and Kerbela. They also visited more than 100 Iraqi families, meeting children as well as their parents in their homes.

The report paints a very grim picture of the expected impact of a new war o­n Iraqi children.

Most of Iraq's 12 million children are dependent o­n food distributed by the government. Naturally, any disruption to this system by war would have a devastating effect o­n the children who already suffer from a high rate of malnutrition.

"The state of the physical well-being of Iraqi children thus makes them much more vulnerable to war today than they were in 1991," the report says. The political games being played by both sides have probably overshadowed the seriousness of the findings.

But there is no escaping the fact that the young will again be the hardest hit, and the trauma they suffer will be irreparable.

Key findings

The key findings of "Our common responsibility: The impact of a new war o­n Iraqi children" are:

  • An estimated 16 million Iraqi civilians are 100 percent dependent o­n government-distributed food rations. If war breaks out, this distribution system will be disrupted, leading to food shortages, malnutrition and possibly starvation.

  • There is o­nly an estimated o­ne-month's supply of food in Iraq. If war occurs, food imports will be disrupted.

  • About 500,000 Iraqi children are acutely malnourished or underweight. These children are particularly vulnerable to disease and death should war take place.

  • The health care system is worn down and o­nly a fraction of its pre-1991 state. The UN estimates that hospitals and clinics will run out of medicines within three to four weeks of a conflict.

  • The death rate of children under 5 years of age is already 2.5 times greater than it was in 1990. Most children (70 percent) die of diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases. This greater vulnerability means greater illness and death in a war.

  • Iraq's water and sanitation systems are in bad need of repair following 12 years of sanctions. A total of 500,000 metric tons of raw sewage is dumped into fresh water bodies each day. o­nly 60 percent of Iraqis have access to fresh (potable) water. Further disruption to these services, as occurred during the 1991 Gulf War, would be catastrophic for Iraqi children.

  • The UN estimates that a war could lead to more than 1.4 million refugees and as many as two million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

  • Iraqi children are already badly traumatised by 12 years of economic sanctions. With war looming, Iraqi children are fearful, anxious and depressed. Many have nightmares. And 40 percent do not think that life is worth living.

  • The UN estimates that in the event of war, as many as 500,000 persons could require emergency medical treatment.

  • The level of emergency preparedness is currently very low. It will not be enough to respond to the expected humanitarian emergency.

    • The gravity of the issue of children caught in a war isn't being felt around the world. Most of the concerns expressed so far are o­n skyrocketing oil prices and economic dislocation. The International Study Team's conclusion is self-explanatory:

    ". . . we are forecasting, should war occur, a grave humanitarian disaster. While it is impossible to predict both the nature of any war and the number of expected deaths and injuries, casualties among children will be in the thousands, probably the tens of thousands and possibly in the hundreds of thousands..." - GVNN/ The Nation