Now that the controversial US-led war in Iraq is over, the immediate focus is o­n the political, economic and social future of the Middle East region. Khalid Jaafar, executive director of the Institute for Policy Research and information chief of opposition party Keadilan, shares his views o­n the issue in an e-mail interview with malaysiakini .

Malaysiakini : Now that the Saddam Hussein regime is gone, what lies ahead for Iraq and its people?

Khalid: In recent history, there have been at least two countries that managed to turn defeat and occupation into economic miracles and build a thriving democracy - Japan and Germany. Economically, they even beat the victors of World War II - UK and France - and challenge the dominance of the US.

The debate about the war and US-UK invasion will continue among the Iraqis. Some welcome their liberation from the brutal Baath and Saddam regime and some are bitterly opposed to the invasion and occupation. Until there are genuine elections, we will not know how many Iraqis see the war as liberation and how many see it as a new colonisation.

But already the Iraqis are claiming and exercising their basic rights, such as freedom to assemble as there are reports of demonstrations, and freedom of movement and worship as seen in the pilgrimage to Kerbala. All these activities were previously banned by Saddam.

For the past two decades, Iraqis had been living under a o­ne-man rule. Can they develop a collective sense of responsibility for a pluralistic democracy without the country degenerating into anarchy?

Iraq is not without any experience of democracy. Before the 1958 revolution, there were elections in Iraq. But the bloody revolution did not give chance for the democracy to mature.

Kanan Makiya, the ideologue of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), has promoted the idea of 'Iraq exceptionalism'. According to his idea, Iraq can succeed where other Arab nations have failed, that is to have democracy, uphold human and cultural rights and progress economically.

He wanted Iraq to be a nation based o­n citizenship, not religion or ethnicity. He said Iraq will cease to be an Arab state. That is very bold; whether it is durable is another matter. Nonetheless, he has the idea for his people and his country and he has hammered out the blueprint for the future Iraq for the INC. So it is not...an American plan alone. The Iraqis themselves have their own plan and this is what matters most.

Given the multi-ethnic and, to a certain extent, multi-faith composition of the Iraqi nation, which leader can hold the nation together?

The Iraqi opposition is rather fragmented. They are divided into secularists, revolutionary Shiites and ethnic secessionists.

Kurdish have two leaders, Mustafa Barzani and Jalal Talabani, but until recently both are at each other throat. In the last few years, INC has been working very hard to bring all the factions together under its umbrella. To some extent it has been successful. There had been several meetings in London, Salahuddin in Kurdish no-fly-zone and Teheran. All this took place before the war.

The credit should go to INC leader Ahmed Chalabi. He seems to be able to connect to every factions of Iraqi opposition. He has the support of the Pentagon. But the CIA hates him and seems to take every measure to block him. The CIA reportedly prefers a former Baathist to take over from Saddam but under the present climate of opinion, that option does not seem feasible. Ahmed said in a recent interview that he did not see his role in elected office. This could be tactical o­n his part.

Ahmed Chalabi has been criticised for having lost touch with Iraq having spent 45 years in exile.

Whether Ahmed Chalabi is good enough for Iraq or not, it is for the Iraqis to decide. If he plans to run for election, which he has denied, he has to persuade and convince the Iraqis that he works for Iraq and is not an America puppet. His decisions must be based o­n the best interests of Iraqis and he must not simply take orders from the Pentagon.

I will not shed tears if the Iraqis genuinely choose a former Baath official, as preferred by the CIA, to be their next president.

What should be the role of the United States and Britain in Iraq's transition to democracy?

First, it is to end the looting and restore law and order. But life cannot go back to normal unless the supply of water and electricity is resumed. The US and Britain should see that the Free Iraqi Fighters should take over the security and defence needs of Iraq from the occupying coalition forces.

As for the political future, the statement that came out of the meeting among Iraqi opposition in Nasiriyah last week should be a good start. o­ne could be cynical by saying that the document was pre-prepared by the Americans. But this is also the vision of Iraqi exiles such as Kanan Makiya and Adeed Dawisha.

Should the United Nations and other countries be allowed to participate in the socio-economic reconstruction and political transition of post-Saddam Iraq?

To the world public opinion, having the UN to head the reconstruction and political transition in Iraq will be a lot more less controversial. But this may not be view of the Iraqis, at least those who fought for the removal of Saddam. Their opinion should carry more weight.

What impact will the democratisation of Iraq has in the Middle East and the Islamic world at large?

Some Arab countries are already in the path of democratisation. Qataris will be going to the ballot booth for the first time very soon. Jordan and Kuwait already have elections. They should move towards having multiparty system. Egypt has multiparty system but the election should be made more credible and transparent, and the Muslim Brotherhood should be legalised and allow to operate as a political party if it so wishes.

If the plan by the Iraqi exiles for the democratisation of their country works, it could have a positive demonstration effect to the region.

What are the major debates among Iraqis and Arabs o­n the questions of democratistion in Iraq and the Middle East?

Kanan Makiya represents o­ne. He wrote an anti-Baath book entitled 'The Republic of Fear'. His other book 'Cruelty and Silence' has wide relevance to the Arab world and invoke the anger of prominent Arab intellectuals such as Edward Said (Palestinian intellectual).

Last year he wrote an article o­n post-Saddam Iraq in a London journal called 'Prospect'. Edward Said responded to the article. It is sad that Said responses did not rise above cynicism and name-calling.

Most recently another Iraqi exile, Adeed Dawisha, wrote 'How to Build a Democratic Iraq' in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs . Foud Ajami, a Lebanese Shiite, also has written in the same journal in the implication of Iraq to the whole Arab world. But the debates that really reach the grassroots are those conducted in Arabic.

It seems that there are also political and ideological conflicts among royalists, secularist and Islamic republicans in the Iraqi opposition. How can they reconcile their differences?

This political and ideological conflict is good. There is no need for democracy if people are of the same mind. In democracy, this conflict is resolved at the ballot box. Saddam and his likes would resolve it by the barrel of gun.

It is up to the Iraqis whether they want to choose a member of the Hashemite family to be their king in a restored constitutional monarchy. Sherif Ali al-Hussein of Iraq and Prince Hassan Talal of Jordan have been mentioned as candidates, and both are cousins of Iraq's last king, namely King Faisal II.

The Iraqis must be free to choose, at their own free will, between a secular republic and an Islamic republic. Iraq becoming an Islamic republic would be Kanan Makiya's worst nightmare. But that is democracy. If the majority of Iraqis decide to be secular it will not a French-style secularism but a version of secularism where the fundamentalists will still be playing an important role.

What can Malaysians learn from the changes in Iraq and the Middle East?

It depends o­n o­ne's vantage point. Iraq will change the face of Middle East. If the INC-American plan succeeds, there will be most likely a democratic domino and there will be fourth wave of democratisation sweeping through Muslim countries.

If the occupation is prolonged, the Iraqis will join the Palestinian in a war of liberation. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan ended the Cold War, but the American invasion of Iraq could start a new o­ne, and this time will be between the US and Europe minus UK. Malaysia like most other Muslim countries will be o­n the side of Europe.