The term of the present Sabah BN state government ends on April 12 next year - that's only eight months away - and surprisingly, for the first time in recent memory in a state as politically volatile as Sabah, there is still little excitement in the air.

A reason for this, according to a local opposition leader, is that the state election could be delayed and that Sabahans generally feel contended with the state government.

Perhaps those who are unhappy prefer to lie low now, unlike in the past when they could be very vocal, said Kota Kinabalu DAP chief Dr Hiew King Chew.

Hiew also believes that the Umno-led state coalition government could ask the Head of State for another six months beyond its five-year tenure before going to the polls.

"The BN could be thinking that there is hardly any urgency (to hold the polls) in the absence of any opposition in the state legislative assembly after former Chief Minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan's Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) returned to the BN fold," he said..

The BN controls all the 48 state seats but the number of seats in the state legislative assembly has been increased to 60 following the recent delineation exercise.

Sabah's 20 parliamentary seats has also increased to 25.

Sabah Umno to gain

Of the 12 additional seats, Hiew, a former PBS and Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) member before he joined DAP in October last year, reckons that Umno will take at least eight, raising the party's allocation to around 36, with the remaining four seats to be distributed among the other component parties.

According to Hiew, with the new delineation of electoral constituencies, the number of predominantly-Muslim seats has increased significantly, while those of the predominantly non-Muslim Bumiputra seats (Kadazandusun) seats has remained more or less the same.

On the other hand, the predominantly-Chinese seats has been reduced to basically six."These are seats with 75% or more Chinese voters," Hiew said.

Political analysts see the recent changes to the electoral constituencies as giving considerable advantage to the Muslim/Malay-led Umno.

Another Umno's apparent advantage over the other parties is that it is less plagued by any serious division within, although observers say there are two obvious factions, one led by Chief Minister Musa Aman (left) and the other by a former chief minister Salleh Mohd Said Keruak (right). The latter is now a state minister in charge of local government matters.

Salleh has been seen to be active on the ground lately, visiting many of the party's constituencies throughout the state. His supporters, said to come from 12 of the party's 20 divisions, campaigned subtly for him to be appointed chief minister again earlier this year, but the Umno top leadership favoured Musa Aman instead.

Political analysts see that while there may be some factional infighting, there should be no problem for the central leadership, even after Dr Mahathir Mohamad has left office and is succeeded by Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, to reign in the two factions to fight the polls on a united front.

They say Parti Keadilan Nasional, even after its merger with Parti Rakyat, will continue to find it an uphill battle to gain a strong foothold in Sabah politics.

Like DAP, it is seen as an "outsider" party. The presence of three local opposition parties - Pasok, Bersekutu and Setia - is also not expected to make any dent in local politics.

Straight fight

According to Hiew, who stood on a DAP ticket and lost in last year's Gaya parliamentary by-election, the opposition parties have more or less agreed on a 1:1 formula for the coming polls, meaning they will not compete for the same seats.

"The idea is to win in straight fights instead of allowing our strength to be dissipitated by going our separate ways," Hiew said, pointing to the Gaya by-election in which Keadilan also contested, splitting the opposition votes.

The seat was won by the BN with a large majority, with help from PBS, which pulled in considerable Kadazandusun votes, after the party's return to the BN fold.

Hiew told malaysiakini that although the national leadership would like the party to contest about 10 state seats, he feels that it would be better to concentrate on six which are predominantly Chinese as they offer the best hope for the party to win, given its traditional support and background.

He said the six state seats are Inanam, Likas, Api Api, Luyang, Tanjung Aru and Kepayan.

"I see a change in voters' attitude. Take the Kota Kinabalu car-parking issue Recently, we went round and talked to some 1000 people. Eighty percent want the parking fees reduced," he said.

"Our party's stand is that it should not be in private hands. The revenue should all go to the Kota Kinabalu City Council which can be used to improve services and to keep the city clean and tidy," he added.

Local issues

Hiew, however, said the KK parking which has been privatised to a company linked to supporters of former Chief Minister Chong Kah Kiat is "merely the tip of the ice-berg."

"There are other issues of great concern to the electorate - like Chinese education, allocation of projects, the present dull state of the economy, slow economic growth and high unemployment."

He acknowledged that the state authorities had when Chong Kah Kiat was chief minister managed to round up many illegal immigrants and repatriated them back to their countries.

But he said there are still many illegal immigrants coming in and going out, pointing out that the fewer number coming back could be attributed to the fact that jobs are now few and wanting in the state because of what he described as "poor management of the state by the BN government."

Many of the illegal immigrants who had been sent back had in fact made a lot of money when they were in the state, learned new skills, and are now using whatever money they have and the skills acquired for new industries back home.

According to Hiew, it is common knowledge that many illegal immigrants are still around and can be found in suburban districts in Lahad Datu, Sandakan, Tawau, Kota Kinabalu and Kudat.

He claimed that contrary to government claims, industrial and manufacturing activities are not going as fast as they should to provide employment and to give the much-needed impetus for economic growth.

He also claimed that because of the slowness on the part of state authorities in making decisions, foreign investors get easily discouraged.

He cited two examples which he is personally aware of in which one major Chinese investor and a major Candian investor in the forestry sector took their investment money elsewhere.

Hiew, who is also a contractor, agreed that the federal government had allocated money for development in Sabah, but this was mainly for schools.

"But compared with previous allocations, overall the allocation is very little in terms of percentage," he added.

Doomed industries

Hiew described the state's financial situation as "in serious condition".

"A lot of people are asking: What is Sabah into? When is it generating revenue? Although the state gets 5% of revenue from oil/gas from Petronas, when compared overall this is very little," he said.

"Industries? They are doomed!. Our industries are not comparative, not competitive, not up to international standards in terms of product quality."

"Even state-owned Sabah Foundation is closing down their factories, sawmills, furniture factories, plywood mills. Now the state has to resort to importing timber from Indonesia," he said.

Instead, the state government amended the law recently to open up forest reserves which run into millions of acres for commercial extraction of timber.

Even mining activities have stopped, according to Hiew, after the closure of the Mamut Copper Mine which became uneconomical to run. The much-hoped-for Tawau Pulp and Paper Mill also did not take off the ground.

"It all boils down to poor management," the DAP leader said.

Hiew said given a change of mood among the electorate, unhappy with the present state of the economy and the lack of opposition, the party is hopeful that it will make a comeback to local politics by at least one or two of its members being elected in the forthcoming state election.

"We are all gearing for it," he added.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini correspondent based in Kuching, Sarawak